OK, I really have no idea what the heck is going on in this election now. Maybe the weirdness is all east vs. west and something like this could actually happen?
Or the WaPo poll was screwy and we are really just seeing 2012 redux with Trump doing a few points worse?
Maybe, but the Utah phenomenon has been going on long enough that I'm convinced it's real. A Clinton win would shock me, but Trump by ≤ 10 wouldn't at this point. The same is probably true of Texas. And if Trump is doing that poorly with Mormons while getting <20% of Latinos, it's really hard to see how Clinton doesn't win AZ. I also think the Trump NE/NYC boost over 2012 is real and could hand him PA and NH in a close race. As of now, I still think the EC will favor Clinton due to FL and WI, but who knows.
Mormons are an obvious exception, but I still think that unless this election is an absolute blowout, Trump will win Texas and Arizona. No way is Texas a swing state if New Hampshire goes Republican - I can put that in the bank. If the WaPo poll is true, then you're right that TX/AZ/AK are swing, but NC, VA, FL would all be solid Dem and we wouldn't even be entertaining NH, PA, or ME. That poll is enough to frighten the GOP into a coup (if it is accurate) as there is literally
nothing to lose.
I really think we have to look more at aggregated averages than singling out individual polls here; otherwise, the results are absolutely screwy. Again, it could be wrong in either direction, but we should think of these polls as part of a distribution rather than all standing true on their own. If PPP is right, then this election is basically Romney 2012 with a few shifts. If WaPo is right, then the GOP will be drinking a whole lot of liquor this November from depression.
