IA-PPP: Clinton 44 Trump 41

[Seriously?]

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Not at all.  They're a partisan polling outfit, so naturally they're doing whatever they can to help Trump win the nomination.

No. They really are not. PPP strives for accuracy. It's not like these numbers are not much off of the 2012 final numbers within the MOE. If the race is about C+3-5% at this point, that's about where they should be stateside. Especially since most state polling is LV, but national polling is RV.

[Seriously?]

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.

Not at all.  They're a partisan polling outfit, so naturally they're doing whatever they can to help Trump win the nomination.

No. They really are not. PPP strives for accuracy. It's not like these numbers are not much off of the 2012 final numbers within the MOE. If the race is about C+3-5% at this point, that's about where they should be stateside. Especially since most state polling is LV, but national polling is RV.

That's precisely why these numbers are ridiculous.  This is not a 2012 election, it's 1932.

Except outside of the Reuters and Bloomberg polls, both of which have their own set of flaws, there's nothing at this point backing up your 1932 assessment. Most of the polling right now is in the 3-6 point range nationally, not much different than 2012 outcome.

Personalities aside, to me this is your typical open seat election, which will end up in the same R+1 to D+7 range in voter turnout. With how polarized this country is, it's just a matter of who turns out more people.

If it ends up D+7, Hillary wins. If the electorate tilts to around D+3 it starts favoring Trump.

For every Democrat that hates Trump, there's a Republican that despises Hillary!

[Seriously?]

Except outside of the Reuters and Bloomberg polls, both of which have their own set of flaws, there's nothing at this point backing up your 1932 assessment. Most of the polling right now is in the 3-6 point range nationally, not much different than 2012 outcome.

Personalities aside, to me this is your typical open seat election, which will end up in the same R+1 to D+7 range in voter turnout. With how polarized this country is, it's just a matter of who turns out more people.

If it ends up D+7, Hillary wins. If the electorate tilts to around D+3 it starts favoring Trump.

For every Democrat that hates Trump, there's a Republican that despises Hillary!

Up to this point, Romney did better than Trump in the polls, though. I mean Hillary even opened up a 10+ point RCP average for almost a month and a half not that long ago.

These races are not really the same. In the polls, Hillary is doing notably better than Obama was in 2012 (so far)


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

That may be true, but just because Trump is underperforming Romney doesn't mean that it is going to remain that way. There still is a long way to go in this cycle.

Note that I am NOT saying that it will either be a landslide or a close race on either side. Simply, the numbers are what the numbers are at this point. I'd expect about this result in IA, etc.

My confirmation of that is where Hillary! is spending her money.