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Author Topic: IA PPP Senate Grassley +7  (Read 1579 times)
swf541
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« on: June 16, 2016, 08:15:54 am »

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/16/poll-shows-clinton-grassley-leading-iowa/85947420/

48 Grassley
41 Judge
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Castro
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2016, 08:39:55 am »

Oh wow...that is not bad at all.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2016, 08:50:57 am »

Better than expected. Time to move it to Lean R.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2016, 08:53:10 am »

Translation: Grassley by double digits.
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2016, 09:01:02 am »

Ooooooh
Lean rep
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2016, 09:12:18 am »

But muh Grassley...
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2016, 11:30:55 am »

Still doubt he loses outright (unless another Justice dies and he holds up a second nominee, I guess), but it would be an amusing result if he wins by less than Feingold does.
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2016, 11:39:25 am »

I'd like to see more polls before calling this a competitive race, though it is remarkable that he's gone from being up 25 or so to only 7. The whole situation with Garland might really be sinking him. I always thought it was a possibility that Grassley could end up like Mark Warner in a bad enough year for Republicans, but we'll see what happens.
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2016, 11:55:30 am »

I really don't think he's beatable, but if we get a 2008 style wave, who knows? Moved out of Safe R out of an abundance of caution.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2016, 12:42:41 pm »

Worth noting: Not a single poll in 2010 had Grassley under 50%
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2016, 12:48:19 pm »

Patty Judge is an overrated candidate and won't beat Grassley. But go ahead and spend money and time here, Democrats! Smiley
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« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2016, 12:51:14 pm »

Patty Judge is an overrated candidate and won't beat Grassley. But go ahead and spend money and time here, Democrats! Smiley

Seriously, what Dem candidate do you not consider overrated? Stop being a hack, or at least get a blue avatar so your hackishness fits better.
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« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2016, 12:54:49 pm »

Patty Judge is an overrated candidate and won't beat Grassley. But go ahead and spend money and time here, Democrats! Smiley

While you may think Judge is an overrated candidate, if anything, Judge being this close to Grassley is going to do the opposite; it's going to make Republicans spend money on a race they didn't think they would need to spend money on, and this means less $$ in other battleground races for Republicans.
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« Reply #13 on: June 16, 2016, 01:22:46 pm »

Seriously, what Dem candidate do you not consider overrated?

I'm actually quite worried about Republican-held seats in MO, LA, NH, WI and FL. They all look like great pickup opportunities for Democrats.

Anyway, I would rate this race "Likely R". Maybe Lean R if Grassley's numbers get a bit worse.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 01:24:44 pm by TN volunteer »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2016, 01:26:07 pm »

Seriously, what Dem candidate do you not consider overrated?
I'm actually quite worried about Republican-held seats in MO, LA, NH, WI and FL. They all look like great pickup opportunities for Democrats.

Care to explain?
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2016, 01:36:19 pm »

There's no reason to be worried about Republican chances in LA. At worst, the top vote-getting Republican will make it to the runoff with a Democrat a month later and the lower turnout will propel him to victory.
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2016, 01:38:11 pm »

Seriously, what Dem candidate do you not consider overrated?
I'm actually quite worried about Republican-held seats in MO, LA, NH, WI and FL. They all look like great pickup opportunities for Democrats.

Care to explain?

There's no reason to be worried about Republican chances in LA. At worst, the top vote-getting Republican will make it to the runoff with a Democrat a month later and the lower turnout will propel him to victory.
I agree. Louisiana is not flipping.
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2016, 01:47:22 pm »

Seriously, what Dem candidate do you not consider overrated?
I'm actually quite worried about Republican-held seats in MO, LA, NH, WI and FL. They all look like great pickup opportunities for Democrats.

Care to explain?

Open seat with a relatively moderate, populist Democrat (Campbell) favored to secure 1 spot in the runoff. John Edwards won by a pretty big margin with the same campaign strategy.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2016, 01:49:05 pm by TN volunteer »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2016, 01:49:19 pm »

I mean, I suppose, but I'd rate it Likely R, if not Safe R. Most of the other states make sense, although I don't see why you don't mention Mark Kirk over Blunt.
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2016, 02:26:58 pm »

He's gone. His poor leadership and Trump will drag him under.
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2016, 03:01:54 pm »

He's gone. His poor leadership and Trump will drag him under.

I have to agree.
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2016, 03:04:04 pm »

Open seat with a relatively moderate, populist Democrat (Campbell) favored to secure 1 spot in the runoff. John Edwards won by a pretty big margin with the same campaign strategy.

Does the likely Republican contender have his own baggage and last minute scandals too? I don't think it is fair to say that JBE won the race without significant help from Vitter's self-inflicted issues. Other LA Republicans won comfortably statewide in 2015, so the idea of a backlash against the GOP doesn't exactly hold up.

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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2016, 03:12:21 pm »

Open seat with a relatively moderate, populist Democrat (Campbell) favored to secure 1 spot in the runoff. John Edwards won by a pretty big margin with the same campaign strategy.

Does the likely Republican contender have his own baggage and last minute scandals too? I don't think it is fair to say that JBE won the race without significant help from Vitter's self-inflicted issues. Other LA Republicans won comfortably statewide in 2015, so the idea of a backlash against the GOP doesn't exactly hold up.

You're probably right, but I have LA-SEN as Likely R on a sort of "wait and see" thing. So does Larry Sabato. If you look at the other two 2015 statewide runoffs, The D in the Lt. Gov. Race had little funding, and Attorney General was R vs. R, even if there was a defacto Democrat candidate.
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2016, 05:38:47 pm »

SHOCK POLL!!!!

This is the first time using this hashtag may actually be justified...

#GrassleyUnder50
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2016, 05:59:52 pm »

Trump-mentum!
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