UK 1997: Major, Conservatives to lead Britain into the new millennium

[Suburbia]

John Major and the Conservatives win a fifth consecutive victory at the polls against Tony Blair and the Labour Party in 1997. What happens during a fifth Tory government?

[AuH2O Republican]

Didn't really come of age in British politics till 2005, but I'm going to hazard a guess that:

- No minimum wage legislation would be introduced
- Probably no devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales
- No major reform to the House of Lords

We would probably see a peace agreement in Northern Ireland in some form. And, no doubt, continual infighting over Europe.

I don't know how hawkish the Major government would be after the 9/11 attacks, presuming they would see out a full 5 year term in government.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Didn't really come of age in British politics till 2005, but I'm going to hazard a guess that:

- No minimum wage legislation would be introduced
- Probably no devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales
- No major reform to the House of Lords

We would probably see a peace agreement in Northern Ireland in some form. And, no doubt, continual infighting over Europe.

I don't know how hawkish the Major government would be after the 9/11 attacks, presuming they would see out a full 5 year term in government.

Do you think Major might resign/be knifed around 2000/2001 in this alternate universe, depending on any plan to hand over the leadership/unfavourable polling?

[AuH2O Republican]

Do you think Major might resign/be knifed around 2000/2001 in this alternate universe, depending on any plan to hand over the leadership/unfavourable polling?

As he would have been PM for a decade by then, I am going to say most probably. And queue an election which Labour would be almost certain to win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Do you think Major might resign/be knifed around 2000/2001 in this alternate universe, depending on any plan to hand over the leadership/unfavourable polling?

As he would have been PM for a decade by then, I am going to say most probably. And queue an election which Labour would be almost certain to win.

What do you think would be Major"s biggest problems?

[Kingpoleon]

Is this a Conservative minority government, a Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition, or a Conservative majority?

[Suburbia]

Is this a Conservative minority government, a Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition, or a Conservative majority?

A full Conservative majority. Blair and Brown makes mistakes in the '97 general election.

[IceAgeComing]

They'd had to have shot a baby on live television to have lost the 1997 General Election campaign; and even then I'm still sure that they'd still be the favourites

[Phony Moderate]

Is this a Conservative minority government, a Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition, or a Conservative majority?

A full Conservative majority. Blair and Brown makes mistakes in the '97 general election.

Mere 'mistakes' during campaigns do not swing elections as this is the UK and not Canada.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is this a Conservative minority government, a Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition, or a Conservative majority?

A full Conservative majority. Blair and Brown makes mistakes in the '97 general election.

Mere 'mistakes' during campaigns do not swing elections as this is the UK and not Canada.

You could have a less savvy Labor leader. That would help.

[Blair]

Okay you'd need this very big strech- Tony Benn doesn't run for deputy leadership in 1981, becomes Leader in 1987 and loses in 1992 only for a another left winger (Livingstone, Meacher etc) to become leader and pushing Labour party to the left

[Phony Moderate]

Is this a Conservative minority government, a Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition, or a Conservative majority?

A full Conservative majority. Blair and Brown makes mistakes in the '97 general election.

Mere 'mistakes' during campaigns do not swing elections as this is the UK and not Canada.

You could have a less savvy Labor leader. That would help.

I suspect the Tories lost 1997 through their own errors in office; Blair turned what would have been a 50-100 overall majority under a John Smith or a Gordon Brown (or even maybe, dare I say it, a John Prescott...hey, Tony Abbott won pretty handsomely!) into a majority of 179 - putting the likes of Enfield Southgate, Wimbledon and St Albans into the Labour column in the process.

[rpryor03]

I mean, after Black Wednesday, there was no way Labour could have lost. I'm in agreement with Phony Moderate here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is there a reason the Tories lost so bad in 1997, the economy was booming then.

[Lumine]

You need way too many things to go different for the Tories in order for them to stand a chance in 97', and if the scenario is John Major as incumbent PM against Blair then I don't see how. Good economy or not, the party was bitterly divided, in shambles and it's reputation was incredibly low, not to mention the campaign was also indecisive and Major seemed beyond exhausted (I don't blame him).  That said, it should be noted that the Tories changing leaders in 95 does not mean they'll do better at all, Major always polled higher than, I believe, any other potential Tory leader at the time and, ironically, was probably an asset in some ways.

I mean, during the 92-97' Parliament the Tories saw their economic credibility utterly destroyed with Black Wednesday, they had to face sex scandals left and right, saw open civil war erupt over Maastricht (and had to contend with the Referendum Party), Major was often undermined and sniped by Thatcher and what he called "the bastards", their majority left them with little ground to maneuver on (and it turned into a minority by the end) and had to fight a finally competent Labour under Blair and Mandelson.

I've read elsewhere that one of the largest problems with that particular Tory Government was that the Conservatives in all likelihood did not expect to win the 92' GE at all, which is probably why they placed so much emphasis on Labour increasing taxes when any Government would have been forced to raise them. To make matters worse, they were left with a small majority that turned into nothing as they tried to buy time to be in a better position at the next election... better position that never came at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-conservatives-win-in-1997.316997/
http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-conservatives-win-in-1997.328172/
http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-tories-win-1997-uk-election.388766/
http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/conservative-fifth-term.242176/

[aross]

As has been said, this is pretty much impossible in any scenario that is even vaguely recognisable to us. However, having handwaved that, Meadow from AH.com once wrote a good (if depressing) TLIAD (Timeline In A Day - the very first one, actually) on it. It's not quite as polished and brilliant as some of his other stuff, but still interesting.

[Pericles]

Tories lost because of:
Black Wednesday, tarnishing of economic credentials
Party ripping itself apart over Europe
Sleaze-back to basics
Slick Labour campaign
Tory inability to decide if New Labour was dangerous or copying them
Voter fatigue after 18 years of Tory government
Tories ran 1992 thinking they'd lose, so were forced to enact tax rises they said Labour would do
Tony Blair
John Major(he looked weak)
They had no answer on public services, debate had moved on from Thatcherism
Referendum Party spoiler

[Pericles]

Here's my try.

Kinnock doesn't do a Policy Review in 1989, and Labour is even further left. There support is cut by about 2 points. This is not enough to butterfly Thatcher's fall, though she is only 2 votes short instead of 4. Labour still has a slight lead in the polls, but by 1992 they have fallen to a close second as the Tories attack them as too extreme and allege they will raise taxes. A dedicated Tory campaign manages to preserve a narrow lead and turn it into a surprise big majority.
1992 UK election:
John Major-Conservative: 360-16 43.4%
Neil Kinnock-Labour: 247+18 32.3%
Paddy ashdown-LibDem: 20-2 18.4%
651 seats
326 for majority

The Tories have a 69-seat majority. Black wednesday still happens. However with a big majority Major is able to overcome the rebellion over Maastricht and come out with minor wounds only. He sees less of a need for a comeback and so doesn't make the ill-fated Back to Basics speech, this means the press isn't as determined in exposing Tory scandals and so sleaze doesn't rot at the Tory reputation. Tony Blair becomes Leader of the Opposition as per IOTL, and takes a lead in the polls. However there are fears they can't win a majority. Also, the tax issue is less potent as the Tories were more careful to run like they were going to win. Entering 1997 Labour has a narrow lead.

However the Tories run a good campaign, with the Europe issue not dividing the party nearly as much. Thatcher and the tabloids support Major. The Tories adopt a firm theme that New Labour is too risky, the demon eyes ad being an example of that. Major runs on a strong economy, and Labour still has some divisions with the party left, the shift to the right being much rougher. Public leaks from the Labour caucus exposing policy disputes and potential plans to be further to the left than expected hurt the Labour campaign. In the long campaign Blair's "I'm a pretty straight kind of guy" when asked if he was lying about how left-wing he was comes off bad. The Tories beat the polls again.

1997 UK election:
John Major-Conservative: 315-45 40.5%
Tony Blair-Labour: 285+38 35.5%
Paddy Ashdown-LibDem: 28+8 17.9%
659 seats
330 for majority

Still, Major falls short of a majority. However with an amazing victory and winning a 5th term, he forms a minority government, with the support of the DUP. Blair is forced to resign, after failing to form an alternative coalition, the arithmemtic didn't add up. In the 1999 election the Tories would get a 2-seat majority, and govern for the next 5 years before their final fall in 2004.

[Suburbia]

Here's my try.

Kinnock doesn't do a Policy Review in 1989, and Labour is even further left. There support is cut by about 2 points. This is not enough to butterfly Thatcher's fall, though she is only 2 votes short instead of 4. Labour still has a slight lead in the polls, but by 1992 they have fallen to a close second as the Tories attack them as too extreme and allege they will raise taxes. A dedicated Tory campaign manages to preserve a narrow lead and turn it into a surprise big majority.
1992 UK election:
John Major-Conservative: 360-16 43.4%
Neil Kinnock-Labour: 247+18 32.3%
Paddy ashdown-LibDem: 20-2 18.4%
651 seats
326 for majority

The Tories have a 69-seat majority. Black wednesday still happens. However with a big majority Major is able to overcome the rebellion over Maastricht and come out with minor wounds only. He sees less of a need for a comeback and so doesn't make the ill-fated Back to Basics speech, this means the press isn't as determined in exposing Tory scandals and so sleaze doesn't rot at the Tory reputation. Tony Blair becomes Leader of the Opposition as per IOTL, and takes a lead in the polls. However there are fears they can't win a majority. Also, the tax issue is less potent as the Tories were more careful to run like they were going to win. Entering 1997 Labour has a narrow lead.

However the Tories run a good campaign, with the Europe issue not dividing the party nearly as much. Thatcher and the tabloids support Major. The Tories adopt a firm theme that New Labour is too risky, the demon eyes ad being an example of that. Major runs on a strong economy, and Labour still has some divisions with the party left, the shift to the right being much rougher. Public leaks from the Labour caucus exposing policy disputes and potential plans to be further to the left than expected hurt the Labour campaign. In the long campaign Blair's "I'm a pretty straight kind of guy" when asked if he was lying about how left-wing he was comes off bad. The Tories beat the polls again.

1997 UK election:
John Major-Conservative: 315-45 40.5%
Tony Blair-Labour: 285+38 35.5%
Paddy Ashdown-LibDem: 28+8 17.9%
659 seats
330 for majority

Still, Major falls short of a majority. However with an amazing victory and winning a 5th term, he forms a minority government, with the support of the DUP. Blair is forced to resign, after failing to form an alternative coalition, the arithmemtic didn't add up. In the 1999 election the Tories would get a 2-seat majority, and govern for the next 5 years before their final fall in 2004.

Would Major have supported the Iraq War with President Bush?

[Pericles]

Here's my try.

Kinnock doesn't do a Policy Review in 1989, and Labour is even further left. There support is cut by about 2 points. This is not enough to butterfly Thatcher's fall, though she is only 2 votes short instead of 4. Labour still has a slight lead in the polls, but by 1992 they have fallen to a close second as the Tories attack them as too extreme and allege they will raise taxes. A dedicated Tory campaign manages to preserve a narrow lead and turn it into a surprise big majority.
1992 UK election:
John Major-Conservative: 360-16 43.4%
Neil Kinnock-Labour: 247+18 32.3%
Paddy ashdown-LibDem: 20-2 18.4%
651 seats
326 for majority

The Tories have a 69-seat majority. Black wednesday still happens. However with a big majority Major is able to overcome the rebellion over Maastricht and come out with minor wounds only. He sees less of a need for a comeback and so doesn't make the ill-fated Back to Basics speech, this means the press isn't as determined in exposing Tory scandals and so sleaze doesn't rot at the Tory reputation. Tony Blair becomes Leader of the Opposition as per IOTL, and takes a lead in the polls. However there are fears they can't win a majority. Also, the tax issue is less potent as the Tories were more careful to run like they were going to win. Entering 1997 Labour has a narrow lead.

However the Tories run a good campaign, with the Europe issue not dividing the party nearly as much. Thatcher and the tabloids support Major. The Tories adopt a firm theme that New Labour is too risky, the demon eyes ad being an example of that. Major runs on a strong economy, and Labour still has some divisions with the party left, the shift to the right being much rougher. Public leaks from the Labour caucus exposing policy disputes and potential plans to be further to the left than expected hurt the Labour campaign. In the long campaign Blair's "I'm a pretty straight kind of guy" when asked if he was lying about how left-wing he was comes off bad. The Tories beat the polls again.

1997 UK election:
John Major-Conservative: 315-45 40.5%
Tony Blair-Labour: 285+38 35.5%
Paddy Ashdown-LibDem: 28+8 17.9%
659 seats
330 for majority

Still, Major falls short of a majority. However with an amazing victory and winning a 5th term, he forms a minority government, with the support of the DUP. Blair is forced to resign, after failing to form an alternative coalition, the arithmemtic didn't add up. In the 1999 election the Tories would get a 2-seat majority, and govern for the next 5 years before their final fall in 2004.

Would Major have supported the Iraq War with President Bush?

I was thinking that Major retires in 2000, replaced by his Chancellor Ken Clarke. Surprisingly, Clarke opposes the war. That and his decision to join the single currency lead to a revolt by the party right, John Prescott wins a majority in 2004 as a result.