Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2019, 09:42:27 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39  (Read 883 times)
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,466
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 17, 2016, 09:03:08 am »

https://twitter.com/AdamWollner/status/743795068239220738
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/637647

Don't have subscriber access, but I just searched for "poll" on Twitter and this came up.

Img
Logged
IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,933
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2016, 09:17:59 am »

So Trump is down double digits nationally and Clinton is just at 39% in AZ? More evidence that this state is not in play this year, barring a Democratic landslide.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,077
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2016, 09:20:20 am »

So Trump is down double digits nationally and Clinton is just at 39% in AZ? More evidence that this state is not in play this year, barring a Democratic landslide.

Well, 42% for the Trumpster is also pretty weak.
Logged
JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,626


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2016, 09:24:30 am »

Arizona is a state where Johnson could do quite well.
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 359


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2016, 09:27:40 am »

So Trump is down double digits nationally and Clinton is just at 39% in AZ? More evidence that this state is not in play this year, barring a Democratic landslide.

Poll was taken June 4-6, before even the California primary.  It was still a tight race nationally then.
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,466
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2016, 09:47:14 am »

I think it's fair to say Clinton is doing better in AZ than Obama was doing in Indiana in 2008, yet he won IN
Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,076


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2016, 10:12:57 am »

These traditionally red states, Arizona, Utah, Georgia...all showing a tightening of the polls has to be concerning for Trump. In a close state, ground game and organization are essential...if these states still are within a few points as November comes closer, you have to think Clinton has a good shot of picking one or two of them off.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,721
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2016, 10:37:53 am »

Bad news for Trump. He can't afford to worry about a state like Arizona.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,531
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2016, 10:44:37 am »

So Trump is down double digits nationally and Clinton is just at 39% in AZ? More evidence that this state is not in play this year, barring a Democratic landslide.

Poll was taken June 4-6, before even the California primary.  It was still a tight race nationally then.

Then it's happening.  AZ should be roughly tied right now.  Now all we need is a few Trump +5 polls in TX and we have an explanation for the divergence of state and national polling.  And AZ saves her from an EC problem if Trump gets the FL-OH-PA trifecta (although I highly doubt he's strong enough in FL after how he has handled Orlando).

You do seem to have this lock-solid idea about Clinton losing PA-OH-FL don't you?
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,667
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2016, 10:46:47 am »

I don't think he's saying she'll lose them. Rather, winning those three are Trump's only real path to victory, so there should be backup plans for Clinton in case it happens.
Logged
MODOK
ShadowOfTheWave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,413
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2016, 11:30:17 am »

These traditionally red states, Arizona, Utah, Georgia...all showing a tightening of the polls has to be concerning for Trump. In a close state, ground game and organization are essential...if these states still are within a few points as November comes closer, you have to think Clinton has a good shot of picking one or two of them off.

Again, Trump has no concept of red and blue states. He's listed NY, CA & WV among his top target states. Even hired a pollster for NY.
Logged
BetoBro
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,405
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2016, 12:01:57 pm »

These traditionally red states, Arizona, Utah, Georgia...all showing a tightening of the polls has to be concerning for Trump. In a close state, ground game and organization are essential...if these states still are within a few points as November comes closer, you have to think Clinton has a good shot of picking one or two of them off.

Again, Trump has no concept of red and blue states. He's listed NY, CA & WV among his top target states. Even hired a pollster for NY.

^^This. Sounds like Trump is still stuck in primary mode and is going for the 50 State Strategy. I'm surprised he hasn't said that he's going to win every state (or has he).
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,456
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2016, 01:43:03 pm »

42-39, private poll by (apparently) a conservative entity, in a state that has never gone for a Democrat in a true two-way election since 1948? (Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996, thanks in part to Ross Perot picking off a large part of the usual Republican electorate).

Hillary Clinton may have a higher ceiling than Donald Trump in Arizona.

I'd like to see what Gary Johnson does in Arizona.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2016, 02:58:32 pm »

Also, 4.5% margin of error. This race could be anywhere from Trump 46.5, Clinton 34.5; to Clinton 43.5, Trump 37.5.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC