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  IL-The Illinois Observer: Clinton way ahead, but #StillUnder50
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Author Topic: IL-The Illinois Observer: Clinton way ahead, but #StillUnder50  (Read 1586 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: June 16, 2016, 03:25:46 pm »

Hillary Clinton (D): 48.3%
Donald Trump (R): 29.5%
Gary Johnson (L): 6.1%

Trump favorability: 26/64 (-38)
Clinton favorability: 46/46 (Even)

http://www.illinoisobserver.net/2016/06/15/poll-trump-64-unfavorable-rating-helps-give-clinton-19-point-lead-illinois/
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Green Line
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2016, 03:35:42 pm »

It's going to look a lot like the 2008 map, with the north/south divide even more pronounced.  Ignorant downstate Illinoisans LOVE Trump, unsurprisingly.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2016, 04:24:33 pm »

The western Great Lake/Midwestern States (IA, IL, MN, WI) is going to look like 2008 or worse.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2016, 04:48:01 pm »

Dominating!


Good to see #HillarySoPopular in Illinois. Smiley
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2016, 04:52:10 pm »

New Poll: Illinois President by Other Source on 2016-06-07

Summary: D: 48%, R: 30%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2016, 05:15:06 pm »

My early thoughts on what the map could look like.

The map would be a 55-60% D victory.



Changes from 2012: DuPage pushes over 50% Democrat (it was in the 40s in 12). Kane stays in the 40s. Madison County (StL burbs) flips to Democrat, but narrowly. While Clinton still holds some Obama counties there, Trump gains ground in NW Illinois. Trump also pushes higher margins in some downstate counties. Margins are closer in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal) but it still goes R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2016, 06:09:23 pm »

Can someone please explain why we have multiple Illinois presidential polls, but none for the Senate race that actually matters?
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2016, 06:22:24 pm »

If the presidential race here is really this lopsided, RIP Kirk. He has some crossover appeal, but not this much.
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Higgs
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2016, 07:42:46 pm »

Can someone please explain why we have multiple Illinois presidential polls, but none for the Senate race that actually matters?

Yeah this pisses me off.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2016, 10:56:25 am »

My early thoughts on what the map could look like.

The map would be a 55-60% D victory.



Changes from 2012: DuPage pushes over 50% Democrat (it was in the 40s in 12). Kane stays in the 40s. Madison County (StL burbs) flips to Democrat, but narrowly. While Clinton still holds some Obama counties there, Trump gains ground in NW Illinois. Trump also pushes higher margins in some downstate counties. Margins are closer in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal) but it still goes R.

I could totally see Trump > Romney in parts of the Chicago suburbs before I could see it in NW IL areas, though.  Can you explain your reasoning more as to why you have the opposite view?

NW Illinois is packed with blue collar whites. Manufacturing has left the river towns. Trump appeals well to these voters.

Meanwhile, the Chicago suburbs have a long history of supporting establishment, moderate, "fiscally conservative/socially liberal" candidates, which Trump is often the opposite (fiscally liberal/socially conservative).

Romney was a great candidate for the Chicago suburbs.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2016, 11:02:01 am »

Mr. Illini,
Can the democrats regain their voter proof majority?
Thanks in advance!
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2016, 12:35:14 pm »
« Edited: June 17, 2016, 12:36:53 pm by Mr. Illini »

Mr. Illini,
Can the democrats regain their voter proof majority?
Thanks in advance!

Well, we do have the veto proof majority *technically.* The problem is that there are a number of Democrats (mostly from Republican-leaning districts) within that supermajority that are frequently deflecting to Rauner's agenda. I don't think Dems will be able to push the already-quite-super majority further to put together a supermajority block of loyal Democrats.

For now it's about holding what they have, doing what they can to push the agenda, hopefully compromising with the governor occasionally (which both sides are at fault for as of now), and beating him in two years.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2016, 01:02:49 pm »

Mr. Illini,
Can the democrats regain their voter proof majority?
Thanks in advance!

Well, we do have the veto proof majority *technically.* The problem is that there are a number of Democrats (mostly from Republican-leaning districts) within that supermajority that are frequently deflecting to Rauner's agenda. I don't think Dems will be able to push the already-quite-super majority further to put together a supermajority block of loyal Democrats.

For now it's about holding what they have, doing what they can to push the agenda, hopefully compromising with the governor occasionally (which both sides are at fault for as of now), and beating him in two years.

Ok, pretty irrelevant question: what happened with the automatic registration bill? Has Rauner signed it and if not until when can he veto it?
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