Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2019, 09:34:21 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IL-The Illinois Observer: Clinton way ahead, but #StillUnder50 (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: IL-The Illinois Observer: Clinton way ahead, but #StillUnder50  (Read 1509 times)
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,969
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

« on: June 16, 2016, 05:15:06 pm »

My early thoughts on what the map could look like.

The map would be a 55-60% D victory.

Img


Changes from 2012: DuPage pushes over 50% Democrat (it was in the 40s in 12). Kane stays in the 40s. Madison County (StL burbs) flips to Democrat, but narrowly. While Clinton still holds some Obama counties there, Trump gains ground in NW Illinois. Trump also pushes higher margins in some downstate counties. Margins are closer in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal) but it still goes R.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,969
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2016, 10:56:25 am »

My early thoughts on what the map could look like.

The map would be a 55-60% D victory.

Img


Changes from 2012: DuPage pushes over 50% Democrat (it was in the 40s in 12). Kane stays in the 40s. Madison County (StL burbs) flips to Democrat, but narrowly. While Clinton still holds some Obama counties there, Trump gains ground in NW Illinois. Trump also pushes higher margins in some downstate counties. Margins are closer in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal) but it still goes R.

I could totally see Trump > Romney in parts of the Chicago suburbs before I could see it in NW IL areas, though.  Can you explain your reasoning more as to why you have the opposite view?

NW Illinois is packed with blue collar whites. Manufacturing has left the river towns. Trump appeals well to these voters.

Meanwhile, the Chicago suburbs have a long history of supporting establishment, moderate, "fiscally conservative/socially liberal" candidates, which Trump is often the opposite (fiscally liberal/socially conservative).

Romney was a great candidate for the Chicago suburbs.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,969
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2016, 12:35:14 pm »
« Edited: June 17, 2016, 12:36:53 pm by Mr. Illini »

Mr. Illini,
Can the democrats regain their voter proof majority?
Thanks in advance!

Well, we do have the veto proof majority *technically.* The problem is that there are a number of Democrats (mostly from Republican-leaning districts) within that supermajority that are frequently deflecting to Rauner's agenda. I don't think Dems will be able to push the already-quite-super majority further to put together a supermajority block of loyal Democrats.

For now it's about holding what they have, doing what they can to push the agenda, hopefully compromising with the governor occasionally (which both sides are at fault for as of now), and beating him in two years.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC