Monmouth: Clinton +7

[Skye]

RVs:

Clinton 47
Trump 40

4-way

Clinton 42
Trump 36
Johnson 9
Stein 4

Likely Voters

Clinton 49
Trump 41

4-way

Clinton 44
Trump 37
Others (?)

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/568faad2-81ab-4bd0-b373-8577326e76bd.pdf

[Tender Branson]

What percentage do Johnson or Stein need to be included in the main debates ?

10, 15 or 20% ?

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is the second poll where Clinton's lead is larger among likely voters than among registered.
If that holds to November then downballot Republicans are in a lot of trouble.

[RJEvans]

49% say it is important that Trump is not elected. 41% say the same for Clinton.

[mds32]

What percentage do Johnson or Stein need to be included in the main debates ?

10, 15 or 20% ?

15% each.

Johnson could very likely get in. He needs to cross the threshold at least twice imo.

[Fargobison]

In the ten 2012 swing states(IA, WI, NH, OH, PA, VA, NC, FL, NV and CO) they have Clinton up 47-39

[Ebsy]

Devastating crosstabs for Trump:

[Landslide Lyndon]

In the ten 2012 swing states(IA, WI, NH, OH, PA, VA, NC, FL, NV and CO) they have Clinton up 47-39

Big MOE but for comparison Obama's margin was roughly 4 points in these states.

[heatcharger]

This is the second poll where Clinton's lead is larger among likely voters than among registered.
If that holds to November then downballot Republicans are in a lot of trouble.

Could someone explain why this matters? Are likely voters more likely to vote in Senate and House races?

[The Other Castro]

Dat gender gap doe

[Likely Voter]

What percentage do Johnson or Stein need to be included in the main debates ?

10, 15 or 20% ?

15% Here are the CPD rules to get in...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 2012 they used ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, Fox and Gallup. My bet is CNN will swap in for Gallup (who aren't doing horse race polls this cycle). Of course that assumes all of them start including Johnson and Stein. As of now I don't think any of those

[Ebsy]

There is a very low chance of Johnson getting the debates, especially when he is averaging only around 10% during a period of the campaign when his numbers are likely inflated.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What percentage do Johnson or Stein need to be included in the main debates ?

10, 15 or 20% ?

15% Here are the CPD rules to get in...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 2012 they used ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, Fox and Gallup. My bet is CNN will swap in for Gallup (who aren't doing horse race polls this cycle). Of course that assumes all of them start including Johnson and Stein. As of now I don't think any of those

Fox is.

[Likely Voter]

I just double checked, the latest from Fox and CBS have included Johnson but not Stein. I assume that would be good enough for the CPD. If ABC, NBC, CNN don't start including Johnson, the CPD could potentially use Bloomberg, Quinni or Monmouth who have done 3-way or 4-way polls, but I bet that ABC, NBC and CNN will start including Johnson (and maybe Stein). 
 

[Reginald]

49% say it is important that Trump is not elected. 41% say the same for Clinton.

Among swing states it's even more bleak for Trump. The question is kind of worded weirdly but still, yikes:

50% say Very Important that he isn't elected.

38% for Clinton.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just double checked, the latest from Fox and CBS have included Johnson but not Stein. I assume that would be good enough for the CPD. If ABC, NBC, CNN don't start including Johnson, the CPD could potentially use Bloomberg, Quinni or Monmouth who have done 3-way or 4-way polls, but I bet that ABC, NBC and CNN will start including Johnson (and maybe Stein). 
 

My understanding of the CPD criteria is that it's a strict average of the most recent results of the chosen polling companies. I assume "not included" counts as "0%". So Johnson being at say, 17% with Fox, 15% with CBS, and unincluded in the other 3 would average as follows: (15+17+0+0+0)/5= 6.4%.

[Likely Voter]

Where have you seen that CPD would count not included as 0%? That makes no sense. The only thing I have seen on the record is from The Hill in early May...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The polling community isn't that big, I'm sure pollsters from ABC, NBC and CNN and others know he said this. I bet by August all the big pollsters are including Johnson.

[Ebsy]

He still won't get to 15%.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, the candidates aren't forced to go with the CPD rules.  They can participate in whatever debates they want.  Given how erratic Trump can be, it wouldn't shock me if he does something crazy, like demand that both Johnson and Stein participate, then back out at the last minute.  No way to know with him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Of course, the candidates aren't forced to go with the CPD rules.  They can participate in whatever debates they want.  Given how erratic Trump can be, it wouldn't shock me if he does something crazy, like demand that both Johnson and Stein participate, then back out at the last minute.  No way to know with him.

Or he could pull a Gingrich and demand a format change. (Gingrich said he would demand 7 lincoln-douglas debates)

@LikelyVoter: From your article:

"The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) requires that candidates poll at 15 percent in five national surveys"

[IceSpear]

Dat gender gap doe

This will definitely be the biggest gender gap ever, regardless of the ultimate result.

Anyway, excellent poll!