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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close race in OH/PA, Clinton leads in FL  (Read 2430 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: June 21, 2016, 05:00:55 am »

Florida: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%
Ohio: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2359
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2016, 05:04:51 am »

With 3rd party candidates included:

Florida: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%
Ohio: Clinton 38%, Trump 36%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 39%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2016, 05:38:21 am »

Clinton hasn't spent a dime on Pennsylvania. Maybe their polls show that the state isn't really that competitive.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2016, 05:40:55 am »

Beautiful poll! She could start with Obama 2012, lose IA, OH, PA, MI, and still win Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2016, 05:41:47 am »

Clinton hasn't spent a dime on Pennsylvania. Maybe their polls show that the state isn't really that competitive.

Pennsylvania is usually decided by turnout.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2016, 05:45:43 am »

Also, seems like the ad pummeling is working? With the shift in Oh and FL toward Clinton.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2016, 06:01:59 am »

WTF? These polls were conducted from 8-19 June.
Pretty worthless.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2016, 06:29:51 am »

Changes from last Quinnipiac polls (in early May).

Florida: Clinton +7
Ohio: Clinton +4
Pennsylvania: 0
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2016, 08:14:05 am »

I will now accept my accolades.  FL left of OH and PA.

No accolades based on QU polls
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2016, 09:24:23 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2016, 09:26:36 am »

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 40%, R: 40%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2016, 09:28:22 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 47%, R: 39%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2016, 09:54:52 am »

Clinton could be up 8 in Florida but I can't see FL being 8 points left of OH and certainly not left of PA

If I had to guess where the big three are at:

FL: Clinton +5
OH: Clinton +2
PA: Clinton +7
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bigedlb
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2016, 09:58:30 am »

Too long a survey period, and FL can't be Clinton +8 when the other two are even.
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Ljube
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« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2016, 10:08:48 am »

Can Trump win without Florida?
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Green Line
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« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2016, 10:09:21 am »

Can Trump win without Florida?


No
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2016, 10:35:13 am »

Can Trump win without Florida?


Well, if he wins New York and California...
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2016, 12:42:21 pm »

Can Trump win without Florida?

Probably not, but if it happens, this will likely be the map (Ignore the shadings):



Trump 270
Clinton 268

Swap CO/WI+ME-02 for MI or VA, if you want.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 12:45:56 pm by TN volunteer »Logged
Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2016, 12:42:41 pm »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Thanks for putting in the wrong numbers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2016, 12:43:46 pm »

Can Trump win without Florida?

Probably not, but if it happens, this will likely be the map (Ignore the shadings):



Trump 270
Clinton 268

Swap CO+ME-02 for MI or VA, if you want.

WI would never vote for Trump.
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Reginald
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« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2016, 12:46:40 pm »

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.
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swf541
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« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2016, 12:48:03 pm »

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.


I think they are trying to create a false narrative on the race.
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Green Line
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« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2016, 12:49:02 pm »

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.


Most major pollsters are intentionally inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the Never Trump movement, but it won't work!
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2016, 12:56:49 pm »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Thanks for putting in the wrong numbers.

Yeah, is there a way that someone could go back and make these include the third party candidates?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: June 21, 2016, 01:00:50 pm »

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.


Most major pollsters are intentionally inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the Never Trump movement, but it won't work!

Yeah, I guess that's the reason why Quinnipiac consistently underestimated Clinton during the primaries too. Roll Eyes
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