FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close race in OH/PA, Clinton leads in FL
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  FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close race in OH/PA, Clinton leads in FL
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close race in OH/PA, Clinton leads in FL  (Read 4258 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2016, 04:20:45 PM »

At least this beautiful university understands Trump's only possible electoral college route!

The question is, does Trump understand it?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: June 21, 2016, 04:43:53 PM »

I think the notion that Florida will certainly have an R+ PVI in 2016 needs to be re-examined. Obama was never a great fit for the state.

Still, I highly doubt she's up 8 there if PA/OH are ties, and vice versa.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2016, 04:59:29 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2016, 08:56:45 PM by pbrower2a »



Dole, Dubya twice -- blue
Clinton 1996  and Dubya twice -- green (Florida disputed for a month... thus the light shade)
Clinton 1996, Gore, and Kerry -- red
Clinton 1996, Gore, and Dubya -- tan
Clinton 1996, Dubya, and Kerry -- yellow

The states in red have 242 electoral votes. Not one of those states (or DC)  gave any electoral votes to any Republican nominee for President since 1988.  Donald Trump has done nothing to bring any one of those states to the Republican fold in the November election for him. The state in light green (Florida) puts Hillary Clinton  over the top.

Subtly it is even worse. I can see ways in which Iowa or New Hampshire go to Trump, but no way for New Mexico. Democrats have 247 electoral votes practically assured for them; Mew Mexico is about as D in Presidential elections as Massachusetts.  





If Trump loses Florida, then he must win at least one state that Bill Clinton won twice, Gore and Kerry won twice, and Obama won twice, or New Mexico. If not New Mexico than he would have to pick up at least seven electoral votes, and your guess is as good as mine of where that state lies. Pennsylvania is the lowest-hanging fruit among them.

So -- Hillary Clinton has:

242 electoral votes behind the strictest assumption of the Blue Firewall -- and she wins outright with Florida.

247 if one thinks New Mexico as a sure thing for her due to demographics.  With those states, Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), and either Ohio (18), Virginia (13), or the combination of Nevada (6) and Colorado (9) puts her over the top. Iowa and Ohio or Nevada and Ohio also put her over the top.

She's not going to win North Carolina without also  winning Virginia, Indiana without also winning Ohio, Arizona without also winning both Colorado and Nevada, or Missouri without winning Ohio and Virginia.  

Donald Trump simply has too many ways to lose and too few ways to win.    

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #28 on: June 21, 2016, 06:49:47 PM »

The cubans must not want to make America great again.
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dspNY
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« Reply #29 on: June 21, 2016, 07:14:46 PM »

Pennsylvania poll is Republican-slanted for sure. Dems have a 10 point registration advantage in the state. It is also more than 8% African-American so I think Clinton is up by several points more than Q says

Ohio and Florida look good methodologically
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #30 on: June 21, 2016, 08:07:40 PM »

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Uh, wow. VA alone isn't enough. Minus Florida, he has to win PA + OH and Colorado.

It's over Trumpbots.

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RFayette
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« Reply #31 on: June 21, 2016, 08:36:06 PM »

I will now accept my accolades.  FL left of OH and PA.

Was this ever really in contention?  At least not with Ohio.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #32 on: June 21, 2016, 10:03:00 PM »

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Uh, wow. VA alone isn't enough. Minus Florida, he has to win PA + OH and Colorado.

It's over Trumpbots.


You do know it is June 21st.
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RFayette
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« Reply #33 on: June 21, 2016, 10:15:35 PM »

I will now accept my accolades.  FL left of OH and PA.

Was this ever really in contention?  At least not with Ohio.

Well, FL left of PA would be a very exceptional thing, and it hasn't been left of OH since 2000.  Plenty of people here have been insisting this will be a very normal election in that part of the country.

It's also interesting to note that if Clinton is winning Florida even by 5%,  she is easily up by >500K raw votes and probably closer to 750K.  Now suppose she is gaining another 500K raw votes from Texas, another 500K-1M from California, and another 500K cumulatively from the remaining Mountain West states.  Allow for a Trump Northeast boost that takes 500K off her cumulative margin there.  Suddenly Clinton is winning by 5-7% depending on turnout, while the rest of the country looks just like 2012 give or take.  That could explain what is going on with the state vs. national polling discrepancy.   

That makes a lot of sense to me.  We'll see what happens.  Romney was relatively strong in the suburbs in the NE (but not working-class areas), but we'll see how much it shifts to Trump.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2016, 02:42:37 AM »

I just happened to read this article. The Clinton team thinks of all the Obama states, Trump has the best shot in Ohio.

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But apparently, they are very bullish on Florida.

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Maybe Quinnipiac is on to something after all? This article was written before these polls were released.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #35 on: June 22, 2016, 02:53:20 AM »

The leads in Florida are just beautiful. Is Florida really just Clinton Country or is Trump just a terrible fit for the state?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #36 on: June 22, 2016, 03:01:37 AM »

The leads in Florida are just beautiful. Is Florida really just Clinton Country or is Trump just a terrible fit for the state?

Clinton is a good fit, she led McCain in 2008 by a lot. But TRUMP abusing and insulting local favorites Rubio and Jeb, as well Hispanics in general, certainly helps.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #37 on: June 22, 2016, 03:08:13 AM »

The leads in Florida are just beautiful. Is Florida really just Clinton Country or is Trump just a terrible fit for the state?

Both, plus Obama not being a great fit for the state either. Polls in 2008 routinely showed her outperforming Obama by 10-15 points there, whether they were taken at the start, in the thick of the primary wars, or at the very end. And that was against McCain, who was a decent fit for the state himself. Trump further exacerbates the problem by alienating the Cubans.



Obviously the difference won't be quite so drastic due to the political polarization that has happened since 2008, but interesting nonetheless. And while I do think Atlas exaggerates the political differences of states depending on the candidates (COLORADO = SAFE R WITH HILLARY, LIKELY D WITH LITERALLY ANYONE ELSE!!!11! VIRGINIA = SAFE D WITH TRUMP, BUT TOSS UP WITH ANYONE ELSE!!!!!11) the fact of the matter is there are differences. Just because Florida had an R+ PVI in 2008/2012 does not necessarily mean it will in 2016.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #38 on: June 22, 2016, 09:58:56 AM »

I have more cause for believing that Florida would go for Hillary Clinton in 2016 than I had except at the last month in 2008 or the last week in 2012 for barack Obama winning Florida. 
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Xing
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« Reply #39 on: June 22, 2016, 10:07:14 AM »

I don't see any way Florida ends up 7 points to the left of Pennsylvania. Even if Little Donny doesn't have a great relationship with Cubans, him losing by 8 there would imply much worse numbers in battlegrounds like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #40 on: June 22, 2016, 10:20:24 AM »

Excellent news out of Florida. Keep on rolling.
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