FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close race in OH/PA, Clinton leads in FL

[MT Treasurer]

Florida: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%
Ohio: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2359

[MT Treasurer]

With 3rd party candidates included:

Florida: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%
Ohio: Clinton 38%, Trump 36%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 39%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clinton hasn't spent a dime on Pennsylvania. Maybe their polls show that the state isn't really that competitive.

[HillOfANight]

Beautiful poll! She could start with Obama 2012, lose IA, OH, PA, MI, and still win

[pbrower2a]

Clinton hasn't spent a dime on Pennsylvania. Maybe their polls show that the state isn't really that competitive.

Pennsylvania is usually decided by turnout.

[HillOfANight]

Also, seems like the ad pummeling is working? With the shift in Oh and FL toward Clinton.

[Landslide Lyndon]

WTF? These polls were conducted from 8-19 June.
Pretty worthless.

[Mehmentum]

Changes from last Quinnipiac polls (in early May).

Florida: Clinton +7
Ohio: Clinton +4
Pennsylvania: 0

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I will now accept my accolades.  FL left of OH and PA.

No accolades based on QU polls

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 40%, R: 40%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 47%, R: 39%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[dspNY]

Clinton could be up 8 in Florida but I can't see FL being 8 points left of OH and certainly not left of PA

If I had to guess where the big three are at:

FL: Clinton +5
OH: Clinton +2
PA: Clinton +7

[bigedlb]

Too long a survey period, and FL can't be Clinton +8 when the other two are even.

[Ljube]

Can Trump win without Florida?

[Green Line]

Can Trump win without Florida?

No

[Landslide Lyndon]

Can Trump win without Florida?

Well, if he wins New York and California...

[MT Treasurer]

Can Trump win without Florida?

Probably not, but if it happens, this will likely be the map (Ignore the shadings):

Trump 270
Clinton 268

Swap CO/WI+ME-02 for MI or VA, if you want.

[Ebsy]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Thanks for putting in the wrong numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Can Trump win without Florida?

Probably not, but if it happens, this will likely be the map (Ignore the shadings):

Trump 270
Clinton 268

Swap CO+ME-02 for MI or VA, if you want.

WI would never vote for Trump.

[Reginald]

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.

[swf541]

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.

I think they are trying to create a false narrative on the race.

[Green Line]

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.

Most major pollsters are intentionally inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the Never Trump movement, but it won't work!

[Sorenroy]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-06-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Thanks for putting in the wrong numbers.

Yeah, is there a way that someone could go back and make these include the third party candidates?

[Landslide Lyndon]

QU is routinely undersampling Democrats in PA and I don't know why. Registration statistics and the 2012 exit poll show about a ten point margin for Democrats, but this poll has a (weighted!) four point margin, last month's had a five point margin, and the one in April had a Republican plurality. Florida's and Ohio's look more accurate, so I don't know what the deal is.

Most major pollsters are intentionally inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the Never Trump movement, but it won't work!

Yeah, I guess that's the reason why Quinnipiac consistently underestimated Clinton during the primaries too.