"Our Senate" Senate 2006 ratings Arizona to Wyoming

[Moooooo]

Senate 2006 ratings From Our Senate:

I will be assessing all of the Senate races of 2006, rated on a 7-point scale: Solid Democratic, Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican, or Solid Republican. One race, Vermont, is a special case, as it is Solid Independent. This entry includes the first 11 races - Arizona to Michigan.

Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994

The last poll had Kyl only polling at 46%, but he was hugely ahead of his fairly unknown likely Democratic challenger, Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson. This may become a race to watch, depending on how Pederson runs his campaign and how Americans feel about the GOP leadership in autumn 2006. For now, Kyl seems heavily favored.

California - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election

Feinstein is safe and is now more popular than the only Republican who was thought to be able to beat her, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988

Lieberman may face a liberal primary challenge, but he'll survive and go on to win in a landslide.

Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000

Carper is safe.

Florida - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D) - elected in 2000

Nelson got a huge boost this week when Rep. Katherine Harris (R), the divisive architect of Bush's 2000 Florida victory, announced her intentions to challenge him. She will likely bring angry Democrats to the polls in droves. Republican polls already show her losing 41-48 to Nelson, and given that those are partisan polls, Nelson is likely over the magic 50% line. Once considered the most vulnerable Democrat in 2006, Nelson is now the clear favorite by virtue of his opponent's weakness.

Hawaii - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Daniel Akaka (D) - appointed in 1990

Akaka is running, despite his age, and is very safe.

Indiana - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Richard Lugar (R) - elected in 1976

If former Rep. Tim Roemer (D) decides to run, which he is considering, this will go to Likely Republican or even Lean Republican. But until Roemer decides, Lugar is safe.

Maine - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Olympia Snowe (R) - elected in 1994

Snowe is very popular in Maine for her moderation and willingness to cross party lines.

Maryland - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Paul Sarbanes (D) - elected in 1976

Sarbanes is retiring, and Rep. Ben Cardin (D), the favorite of Maryland's Democratic establishment, is slightly favored to hold the seat. The last poll showed Cardin beating Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R), a possible candidate, in a theoretical matchup, 41-37. Given that Steele's name recognition is significantly higher than Cardin's, those are good numbers. Cardin must first beat former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume in the primary, though.

Massachusetts - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Ted Kennedy (D) - elected in 1962 special election

Kennedy is running for his 8th full term, and will own this seat until he dies.

Michigan - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D) - elected in 2000

Stabenow was supposed to be vulnerable, but the weakness of the Republican field leaves her with two major challengers - extremist reverend Keith Butler and Jane Abraham, wife of the Senator Stabenow ousted in 2000. Stabenow leads Butler 57-30 and Abraham 59-30. For Stabenow, it is not the gap, but the actual number she is at, that is reason to cheer. For her to be nearing 60% is excellent given Michigan's swing-state reputation and her expected vulnerability. So, at this point she is a favorite for reelection.

[Moooooo]

Minnesota - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000

Dayton is not running for reelection, which is good because his approval ratings had dipped into the low 40’s. This race is a pure toss-up, with no real indications yet of where it is headed. Two Democrats are running, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and famous children’s safety advocate Patty Wetterling. One Republican, Rep. Mark Kennedy, has the GOP field to himself. This should be a close race no matter what, and we will have no idea how it is going until more polls are conducted.

Mississippi - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Trent Lott (R) - elected in 1988

In most states Lott would be considered a prime target. But this is Mississippi.

Missouri - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jim Talent (R) - elected in 2002 special election

Talent should be very vulnerable. He eked out a smaller-than-expected win in 2002 and is firmly on the political right wing representing a traditional swing state. Missouri has gotten more Republican, but it still has many strong Democrats on the state level. None of them have announced their intentions to challenge Talent though, and only one, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, is even considering. If McCaskill runs, this becomes Lean Republican. Until then, Likely Republican.

Montana - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Conrad Burns (R) - elected in 1988

Burns had a tight race in 2000 and faces a growing Democratic tide in Montana now. He also has two potentially strong challengers, the likely nominee being State Senate President Jon Tester. Tester is a farmer with strong rural appeal similar to that of Governor Schweitzer (D), and is already getting heavy donations from the internet. He stands a good chance once he raises his currently very low name recognition, especially with Burns only polling at 50% against him. This race may end up very close.

Nebraska - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Ben Nelson (D) - elected in 2000

Here you have a state where 2/3 of the people favored President Bush in 2004, and where the conservative Democratic incumbent barely won in 2000. Yet Republicans have been unable to field a strong opponent to Nelson in deep-red Nebraska, and so far his only challenger is the guy he beat in 2000, Don Stenberg. As a reasonably popular incumbent, Nelson has the upper hand, though not by a lot because of the state's usual partisan bent.

Nevada - Solid Republican
Incumbent: John Ensign (R) - elected in 2000

Frustratingly, this conservative incumbent in bellwether Nevada is safe and might not even face credible opposition.

New Jersey - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Jon Corzine (D) - elected in 2000

Before even finishing his first term, Corzine is running for Governor this year. If he wins in November, he will appoint a successor to his Senate seat who will keep the seat warm until the 2006 elections. On the off-chance that Corzine does not win the governorship, he will easily keep his seat.

New Mexico - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D) - elected in 1982

Bingaman is safe. His only close race was in the year of the Republican Revolution, 1994.

New York - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Hillary Clinton (D) - elected in 2000

To Rush Limbaugh’s chagrin, Hillary is very popular in New York and will easily earn another term, given that her strongest challenger is a little-known D.A. whose husband is in prison.

North Dakota - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Kent Conrad (D) - elected in 1986, then in 1992 special election

Conrad won in a landslide in 2000 and should do so again in 2006 unless Governor Hoeven (R) runs against him. If Hoeven doesn’t run, it will stay Solid Democratic. If Hoeven does run, it will be automatically become a Toss-Up.

Ohio - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Mike DeWine (R) - elected in 1994

DeWine should win easily, but rumors abound of a primary challenge to him from the right, possibly from former Rep. John Kasich (R). DeWine should triumph, but if he doesn’t survive the primary, Democrats could suddenly stand an excellent chance of taking back a Senate seat in Ohio.

Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994

This is currently the only race leaning towards switching parties. Santorum has a strong challenger in State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., a Democrat with a beloved Pennsylvania name, and faces a tough battle for reelection. Casey has led Santorum in virtually every poll, usually keeping Santorum in the high 30’s or low 40’s. Don’t count out Santorum yet, however – saving him is the GOP’s biggest priority in 2006.

Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999

Chafee has two tough fights ahead of him: the first in the Republican primary (Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, a conservative, is interested in challenging Chafee), where Chafee would have to work hard to defend his credentials, and then in the general election, where he will likely face a credible Democrat. On the Democratic side, U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse and Secretary of State Matt Brown are running. While neither leads Chafee in the polls, both are holding him to the low 40’s, weak numbers for an incumbent. Chafee isn’t dead yet, but has no reason to feel secure.

Tennessee - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Bill Frist (R) - elected in 1994

Frist is keeping his two-term promise and will not be running for reelection in 2006. Democrats have cleared the field for Rep. Harold Ford Jr., a conservative Democrat with potential electoral strength; Republicans face a migraine-inducing primary between Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (who, though the strongest of the GOP candidates, will have trouble defending his pro-choice stance to conservative primary voters), former Rep. Van Hilleary, former Rep. Ed Bryant, and Tennessee Republican Party Chairwoman Beth Harwell. The race leans Republican because of Tennessee’s political trends, but Ford has a fair chance if the national mood continues to sour on President Bush and the Congress.

Texas - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - elected in 1993 special election

Sources close to Hutchison privately say that she will be challenging Gov. Rick Perry (R) in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. However, I won’t count this seat as open until she announces. In the meantime, she is safe.

Utah - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R) - elected in 1976

Move on.

Vermont - Solid Independent
Incumbent: Jim Jeffords (I) - elected in 1988

Jeffords will be retiring for health reasons, and his fellow Independent, the very popular Rep. Bernie Sanders, will be running. Sanders stands an excellent chance as Vermont continually sends him back to Congress with 60-70% of the vote. However, we had better make sure no major Democrat runs, as a three-way race would divide the liberal vote and possibly deliver this to the Republican.

Virginia - Likely Republican
Incumbent: George Allen (R) - elected in 2000

Allen is inexplicably popular and so far faces no strong opposition. If Gov. Warner (D) ran, this would become a toss-up or even lean Democratic, but Warner seems to have his eye on 2008 (hint hint). Without Warner’s presence, Allen should have little trouble winning a second term.

Washington - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D) - elected in 2000

Cantwell eked out an upset victory in 2000 and was considered vulnerable in 2006. Yet, the Republican bench in Washington State these days is really only Dino Rossi, the almost-Governor of 2004. Rossi has consistently said he doesn’t want to move to D.C., and everybody knows his real ambition lies in Olympia. Rossi is the only one who could beat Cantwell in the increasingly California-like Evergreen State, and so she is clearly favored.

West Virginia - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Robert Byrd (D) - elected in 1958

The longest-serving Senator says he will run again. If so, he may face opposition from Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R). Only Capito could keep it close, and she may not want to risk it, as even GOP polls have Byrd with a narrow lead. So Byrd is the favorite to win an historic ninth term. I expect it will be his last, so he should start grooming someone to replace him in 2012 or even before.

Wisconsin - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Herb Kohl (D) - elected in 1988

Kohl can expect another sacrificial lamb that he will beat by a big margin.

Wyoming - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Craig Thomas (R) - elected in 1994

You can practically count on one hand all of the Democrats in Wyoming. Move on


That’s a wrap. All the Senate races. So, let’s review.

Solid Independent: VT
Solid Democratic: CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, NM, NY, ND, WI
Likely Democratic: MD, MI, NJ, WA, WV
Lean Democratic: FL, NE, PA
Toss-Up: MN, RI
Lean Republican: MT, TN
Likely Republican: AZ, MO, VA
Solid Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, OH, TX, UT, WY

(Our Senate is a site ran by Democrats, but they tend to be non-partisan in their reviews.  If you disagree with any of these just point them out.)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Has anyone heard anything about Hoeven's intentions in ND?  He's pretty young and in his first term, so I have to think he's more likely to just run for reelection, win a landslide, and go after the next open Senate seat if he has Senate ambitions.  Then again, neither Conrad nor Dorgan are particularly old for a Senator, so the wait could be long.  I just really haven't heard much from this race.

[Moooooo]

Has anyone heard anything about Hoeven's intentions in ND?  He's pretty young and in his first term, so I have to think he's more likely to just run for reelection, win a landslide, and go after the next open Senate seat if he has Senate ambitions.  Then again, neither Conrad nor Dorgan are particularly old for a Senator, so the wait could be long.  I just really haven't heard much from this race.

I haven't heard much either.  Im sure the GOP has polled Hoeven vs Conrad.  My guess is the #'s aren't as good as they would like.

[The Vorlon]

Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994

Correct...

California - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election

Correct...

Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988

Correct...

Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000

Carper is safe.

Florida - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D) - elected in 2000

I'll put this one darn close to a tossup.

The GOP roots are getting stronger in Florida, and while Harris is certainly a lightning rod... it is barely concievable that the Whitehouse might gently nudge Harris out and another more electable candidate in to the GOP slot....  I admit it has been a long time since anything like this has happened in Florida (ok... other than, well, 2004) so I'm not locking this up for the Dems yet.

Hawaii - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Daniel Akaka (D) - appointed in 1990

done deal....

Indiana - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Richard Lugar (R) - elected in 1976

done deal...

Maine - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Olympia Snowe (R) - elected in 1994

done deal...

Maryland - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Paul Sarbanes (D) - elected in 1976

done deal...

Massachusetts - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Ted Kennedy (D) - elected in 1962 special election

done deal...

Michigan - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D) - elected in 2000

Stabenow is beatable... a dem lean at best....

Minnesota - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000

Democratic roots are real deep in Minnesota, GOP has made big gains, but it's still a Dem lean.

Mississippi - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Trent Lott (R) - elected in 1988

It's, well, Mississippi...

Missouri - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jim Talent (R) - elected in 2002 special election

Lean Republican, at best... There will be a mild Dem tide in 2006. 

Montana - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Conrad Burns (R) - elected in 1988

Burns, by a lot more than you think...

Nebraska - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Ben Nelson (D) - elected in 2000

Nelson is a real good Senator... the state is 65/35 GOP at the Presidential level so no Dem is a lock, but Nelson wins 15%+

Nevada - Solid Republican
Incumbent: John Ensign (R) - elected in 2000

Good SEnator, easy win.

New Jersey - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Jon Corzine (D) - elected in 2000

Corzine is an bit of a slime, but it is New Jersey..  Lean to likely Dem

New Mexico - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D) - elected in 1982

Bingaman is safe. His only close race was in the year of the Republican Revolution, 1994.

New York - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Hillary Clinton (D) - elected in 2000

It's over.

North Dakota - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Kent Conrad (D) - elected in 1986, then in 1992 special election

Conrad by more than you think - 10% +

Ohio - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Mike DeWine (R) - elected in 1994

Dewine is the surprise "in trouble" candidate, he wins but it will be very close.

Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994



Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999

A Republican in Rhode Island, this, by definition, at best a toss up for the GOP.

Tennessee - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Bill Frist (R) - elected in 1994

GOP will hold.

Texas - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - elected in 1993 special election

GOP will hold

Utah - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R) - elected in 1976

Move on.

Vermont - Solid Independent
Incumbent: Jim Jeffords (I) - elected in 1988

Sanders in a walk...

Virginia - Likely Republican
Incumbent: George Allen (R) - elected in 2000

Solid GOP if Allen runs

Washington - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D) - elected in 2000

Cantwell is very beatable, at best a mild Dem lean.

West Virginia - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Robert Byrd (D) - elected in 1958

Byrd is just getting to old, and too erratic...(let's call it the Jim Bunning effect) and the state is moving right while Byrd moves left.

Mild Dem lean if Byrd runs, GOP lean if he does not.

Wisconsin - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Herb Kohl (D) - elected in 1988

done deal...

Wyoming - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Craig Thomas (R) - elected in 1994

one word - it's Wyoming....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's my predictions:

AZ: Likely GOP - was supposed to be vulnerable in 2000
CA: Solid Dem - more likely to lose primary than general election
CT: Solid Dem - much more ikely to lose primary than general election
DE: Solid Dem
FL: Lean Dem - Nelson isn't unpopular
HI: Solid Dem - a yawner
IN: Solid GOP - yeah
ME: Solid Dem - she's popular
MD: Likely Dem
MI: Likely Dem
MN: Narrow lean Dem - should be interesting
MS: Solid GOP
MO: Lean/Likely GOP - this seat has flipped twice in the last 6 years
MT: Lean GOP - scandals
NE: Likely Dem - no one serious is running against the most conservative Democrat
NV: Solid GOP
NJ: Likely Dem
NM: Solid Dem
NY: Solid Dem
OH: Likely GOP
PA: Narrowl lean Dem
RI: Toss up
TN: Lean GOP
TX: Solid GOP
UT: Why bother having an election?
VT: Solid IINO
VA: Solid GOP - now that Warner isn't running
WA: Lean/Likely Dem
WV: Solid GOP - he's unbeatable
WI: Solid Dem
WY: Solid GOP

[No more McShame]

My take:

AZ: Solid GOP - even if Kyl is nominated to the Supreme Court the Dems have no depth here outside of Gov Napolitano or AG Goddard.  Phoenix Mayor Gordon has promise, but it's not his time quite yet.

CA: Solid Dem - Feinstein is very popular here.

CT: Solid Dem - Fern is right about Lieberman being more vulnerable in a primary than in the general.  Neither is likely.

DE: Solid Dem

FL: Slight Lean Dem - Nelson isn't unpopular but isn't popular either.  This will be a test to see if Fla is really shifting to the GOP.

HI: Solid Dem 

IN: Solid GOP 

ME: Solid GOP - Maine likes their mavericks.

MA: Solid Dem-  Mass likes their Kennedys.

MD: Strong Lean Dem- Depends on primary results.  Mfume vs Steele could be interesting.  Cardin should win if Van Hollen stays out.

MI: Strong Lean Dem- Stabenow is beatable but nobody on the GOP side who could do the trick is stepping up.

MN: Toss-up- Will be the most interesting race of the year.

MS: Solid GOP

MO: Strong Lean GOP - Talent is beatable but it would take a Dem landslide to do it.

MT: Lean GOP - Burns ratings aren't the highest, but incumbency does have it's advantages.

NE: Strong Lean Dem - Unless Heinman runs, I don't see Nelson losing.  A Dem is never truely safe here though.

NV: Solid GOP

NJ: Toss-up:  Kean would be a strong Republican candidate, but Dems are always tough here.  This is assuming Corzine wins the governor's seat which is not guaranteed.  I'll stay the middle here until I see some data.

NM: Solid Dem-  Wilson will wait for an open seat to run.

NY: Solid Dem- Unless Giuliani runs which is unlikely.

ND: Solid Dem or Toss-up depending if Gov. Hoeven runs.

OH: Strong Lean GOP-  DeWine isn't hugely popular with the base but there's not enough discontent to throw him out in the primary.  Should win general fairly easily.

PA: Slight lean Dem-  Casey has the momentum right now, but it's too early to count Santorum out.  This will be an interesting one to watch unfold.

RI: Strong Lean GOP-  Chafee looks strong in all the polling I've seen.  Like Nebraska, a Republican is never truely safe here but there dosn't seem to be a lot of discontent to throw him out.

TN: Strong Lean GOP-  Open seats are usually interesting, but Ford would have a tough hill to climb here in an increasingly Republican state.  Having his uncle in the news won't help a whole lot either.

TX: Solid GOP

UT: Solid GOP

VT: Strong Lean Ind-  Sanders should have an easy time here.  I don't see the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot by giving a lot of support to one of their own.

VA: Solid GOP - With Warner out Allen will win easy.

WA: Strong Lean Dem-  Another beatable candidate.  For some strange reason Murray is more popular than Cantwell.  I've never figured that one out.  However, the WAGOP doesn't seem to have it together enough to field a credible candidate.

WV: Solid Dem unless Byrd shocks us all by not running.  Then I'll put it as a tossup until I see who emerges.  I wouldn't go as far as to say he's unbeatable, but I sure don't see it happening.

WI: Solid Dem-  Tommy Thompson could give Kohl a run for his money but he's unlikely to run.

WY: Solid GOP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

GOP lean if he does not.

Despite the WV GOP having only 1 semi-credible candidate?

[TheresNoMoney]

MO (if Claire McCaskill runs) and OH (if Sherrod Brown runs) are dark horse pickup attempts for Democrats in 2006.

NV (if Oscar Goodman runs) and AZ (if Jim Pederson runs) could also be interesting races for Democrats.

[No more McShame]

GOP lean if he does not.

Despite the WV GOP having only 1 semi-credible candidate?

One candidate is all it takes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One candidate is all it takes

No, she'd need one of the numerous feuds inside the WV Dems to blow over into a primary.
In otherwords, she needs the return of Pritt

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol at OH being considered Solid R given the Taft scandals.

[Continential]

I remember seeing a thread where someone said that Sherrod Brown had a big ego and that only Jim Hackett could win.

[DrScholl]

[Calthrina950]

It is interesting to read this in hindsight. I find it fascinating that Florida was only considered "Lean Democratic", and that early polls showed Nelson in a somewhat competitive race. He went on to beat Katherine Harris by 22%. Minnesota was thought to be a tossup, but Klobuchar went on to win her first term by 20%. Nebraska was seen only as "Lean Democratic", but Nelson went on to win reelection with more than 60% of the vote.

Pennsylvania was also only "Lean Democratic", but Casey ended up beating Santorum by 18%-one of the largest margins of defeat ever for an incumbent. Virginia was seen as "Likely Republican" and Allen was viewed as popular, yet he lost narrowly to Webb. And it's interesting that West Virginia wasn't seen as "Safe Democratic", with current Sen. Shelley Moore-Capito (who was then in the House) identified as a credible challenger to Byrd. But she didn't run that year, and Byrd won his final term by a landslide.