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Author Topic: UT-Dan Jones & Associates/UtahPolicy.com: Trump+9  (Read 1308 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 21, 2016, 12:39:34 pm »

Survey conducted by Dan Jones & Associates June 8-17, 2016. 614 registered Utah voters. Margin of error +/- 3.95%

36% Trump
27% Clinton
10% Johnson
  2% Stein

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9909-poll-donald-trump-has-a-nine-point-lead-on-hillary-clinton-in-utah
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2016, 12:41:05 pm »

Utah is fool's gold for Clinton.
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2016, 12:48:02 pm »

Other interesting facts:

Trump only gets 57% of Utah Republicans to Clinton's 88% of Utah Democrats.

Quote
- "Very active" Mormons pick Trump over Clinton 42-14%
- "Somewhat active" Mormons would vote for Trump over Clinton by a 46-15% margin.
- Non-active members of the LDS Church prefer Clinton by a 39-28% margin.
- Catholics overwhelmingly want Clinton over Trump 55-10%.
- Protestants slightly favor Clinton over Trump by a 48-41%. margin.

Also: "Jill Stein gets zero support from Utah Democrats as not a single one of the respondents in that group said they would vote for her."

This is also a decrease from their May poll where they had Trump up 13% on Clinton.
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2016, 01:17:05 pm »

36-27.  That is incredibly weak for a Republican in Utah.


Should the LDS Church turn on Trump, then he loses.
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2016, 04:38:27 pm »

Utah is now a toss up again on the Atlas map. lol
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2016, 04:40:41 pm »

Trump is down 4 points from their last poll.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2016, 09:08:59 pm »

Utah is fool's gold for Clinton.

Yes, there's no way she wins the state. 88% of Democrats are already decided for her, almost all those undecided voters will be Trump voters by November.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2016, 09:36:13 pm »

Utah is fool's gold for Clinton.

Yes, there's no way she wins the state. 88% of Democrats are already decided for her, almost all those undecided voters will be Trump voters by November.

Unless Romney endorses Johnson and campaigns hard for him in Utah.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2016, 09:44:05 pm »

Quote
Yes, there's no way she wins the state. 88% of Democrats are already decided for her, almost all those undecided voters will be Trump voters by November.

Not if they stay home.
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2016, 09:49:28 pm »

Cry
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2016, 09:50:34 pm »

Utah is fool's gold for Clinton.

Yes, there's no way she wins the state. 88% of Democrats are already decided for her, almost all those undecided voters will be Trump voters by November.

Unless Romney endorses Johnson and campaigns hard for him in Utah.

How likely is a Republican establishmentarian going to endorse an actual libertarian who has directly contrary views on foreign policy and social issues. How likely are Mormons going to vote for someone who has no shame in smoking pot, supports gay marriage, abortion, etc? I don't see something substantial happening other than protest votes.

Quote
Yes, there's no way she wins the state. 88% of Democrats are already decided for her, almost all those undecided voters will be Trump voters by November.

Not if they stay home.

If undecideds stay home, he'll still win, just by much less. Without 3rd parties this poll shows a 57/43 Trump win.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 10:05:28 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2016, 10:01:11 pm »

Romney and Weld are apparently good friends, so there's that. Romney said he'd have no problem supporting Weld if he was at the top of the ticket. I don't think he'll endorse him though. If Romney wanted to deliver Utah/the election overall to Hillary, he'd just run himself. He doesn't want to be a loser or endorse a loser.
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2016, 10:05:27 pm »

Obviously Hillary isn't going to win Utah unless she's crushing Trump nationally, but it looks like there will be a very big swing toward her. I have to wonder if Trump's issues with Mormons will hurt him in Nevada and Arizona as well...
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2016, 11:13:18 pm »

I really hope Trump says something negative or even derogatory about the Mormon faith to help close the gap. Who in the hell would have expected a place like Utah to be this close....
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2016, 12:34:18 am »

I really hope Trump says something negative or even derogatory about the Mormon faith to help close the gap. Who in the hell would have expected a place like Utah to be this close....

All we need is for him to see his poll numbers and then run his mouth off about Mormons and polygamy or Mountain Meadows. Preferably both. That would basically be him throwing gasoline on the dumpster fire that is his campaign.
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2016, 12:52:00 am »

Outlier/junk poll!
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2016, 01:08:39 am »

Frankly at this point, I don't care if Hillary wins Utah or not anymore, but to keep Trump to a closer win than it has any right to be will be awesome. And the downballot effects will be very, very fun.
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2016, 11:30:35 am »

This gives Johnson an opportunity to make some gains in Utah with how both candidates are weak in the state.
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