Nader chipping away at Kerry's youth vote

[California Dreamer]

In Newsweek's regular 'GENNEXT' poll Kerry has dropped and Nader has gained.

If you guys thought 9% for nader in the Harris poll was too much...hold on to your hats.

Amongst 18-29 year old registered voters:
Bush: 42
Kerry: 45
Nader: 11


The youth vote was the biggest part of Nader's vote in 2000, and his new anti-War theme is playing well and can seriously hurt Kerry.

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[Mort from NewYawk]

I am beginning to get the feeling that we may have all greatly underestimated Ralph Nader's potential in this election.

It has become clear that Kerry is not going to call for withdrawal from Iraq (he'll lose the middle if he does).

However, if the situation in Iraq stays uncertain or deteriorates, more of the hard left will call for withdrawal, and Ralphie could fill the bill as their hero.

After all, this is the year of the angry Democrat, and  I don't sense too much Democratic love for Kerry.

How about it?

1. Nader fills Howard Dean's shoes, and Bush wins with even less of a popular vote than 2000, although he slams in the Electoral College since Nader gets just one elector (from Maine).

2. Kerry becomes the Hubert Humphrey of 2004, caught between the patriotic middle and growing anti-war sentiment. The popular vote could even resemble 1968, just substitute Nader for George Wallace.

3. After the election, the Democrats blame Kerry for not being against the war and Nader for robbing them of the Presidency a second time.

[StevenNick]

I don't think there's any way Nader will play as much of a factor in 2004 as Wallace did in 1968, but it's possible--maybe even likely--that Nader will play a far bigger role than any of us has predicted.  He may play a larger role than the role he played in 2000.

Ralph has certainly been more animated, more excited, and more inspiring than he was in 2000.  He seems like he's on a mission.  That could attract a lot of voters who are turned off by Bush and especially by Kerry.

[Lunar]

Those numbers you gave are close to meaningless.  First off, this is not "likely" voters and the general apathy of the youth will be like all the previous years before.

Secondly, as Vorlon has pointed out, including his name in the choices automatically inflates his numbers.  If you added the Libertarian candidate you'd probably see them getting 2-3 percent simply because some people are so tuned out of politics that they just select one randomly or close enough.  The way to solve this is by giving them an "unaided" ballot, meaning that you just ask the person who they're voting for without listing all the potentials.

What we want to look at, for Ralph's impact in the election, is LIKELY voters.  These polls show him between 2 and 3 percent, which is far more accurate.  We also want to look at whether he can even get on the ballot in key states.

[Rococo4]

I am so tired of the Nader bashing.......(not that you guys are, just in general).  There isnt a whole lot Kerry and Co. can do about it now, so just do the best you can, you know.  Ik Kerry is so great , he will get the votes he needs.  If he is not appealing, he wont.  

[Kghadial]

I am so tired of the Nader bashing.......(not that you guys are, just in general).  There isnt a whole lot Kerry and Co. can do about it now, so just do the best you can, you know.  Ik Kerry is so great , he will get the votes he needs.  If he is not appealing, he wont.  

When the Libertarian candidate or the Constitutional Party candidate starts getting some press (eventually the media will get tired of Ralph over the summer).  I'll love all the vitriol coming from your side.

[Lunar]

Here is a Battleground a couple weeks old:
http://www.tarrance.com/pdf/9701Q.pdf

It's easy to see where lesser firms can screw up.  At least 1% of the people who said that they were likely to vote in the next election have never even heard of the Republican Party before.

You can also see that Ralph has 1% in that poll with an unaided ballot.

[dunn]

only 45% of people age 18-24 are registeres in the US acording to Vorlons'Link. that's mean max of 35% of them voting.  They are roughly 14% of the voeing population,  even if Nader will get 10% of this group's votes it's 0.5% nationally. And If the elections are that close he will get way less.

[opebo]

I find it hard to believe anyone over 25 voted for Nader.

[© tweed]

He has to get on the ballot first before he polls 11%.