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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AZ - Predictive Insights: Clinton +4.3
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Author Topic: AZ - Predictive Insights: Clinton +4.3  (Read 2407 times)
Ronnie
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« on: June 22, 2016, 12:13:21 pm »

Conducted 6/20, MOE +/- 3.01%

Clinton 46.5%
Trump 42.2%
Third party candidate 5.8%

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-2A45CA0283AA87B8
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Human
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 12:15:38 pm »

>Decimals
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2016, 12:26:25 pm »

I don't think this poll is that far off the mark. Arizona is a tossup and it won't be long before Clinton spends money there
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michelle
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2016, 01:12:37 pm »

No demographic crosstabs? I'm taking this poll with a grain of salt, but I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton is leading here.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2016, 01:17:05 pm »

What the heck does this even mean?

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on June 20, 2016, from a 2016 general election sample. The sample size was 1,060 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.01%

RV? LV? Adults? Just call and let whomever answer the phone input the info? Seems like a one-question poll

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NV less likely to flip than FL/GA/ME/MN/NC/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2016, 02:08:18 pm »

lol, decimals. Hard to buy this poll, but we should keep an eye on Arizona. Even if Hillary can't win there, if she can make it close, that's a bad sign for Trump.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2016, 02:27:01 pm »

No idea if this pollster is to be taken seriously. WaPo did have an article on Clinton and AZ a few days ago with some fun tidbits

Quote
Clinton has hired Rodd McLeod, who ran former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords’s campaigns here, as state director for the general election. He is recruiting half a dozen staffers, according to local Democratic officials, while the state party’s coordinated campaign has deployed a field staff of about 70.
...

Clinton’s footprint appears to be greater than Trump’s. His state director, Charles Munoz, is based in Nevada, and a visit last week to Trump headquarters in Mesa revealed little evidence of an active campaign. There was one worker eating lunch at his desk, a roomful of empty cubicles and, other than a small pile of plastic yard signs, no Trump paraphernalia, brochures or fliers. The GOP’s coordinated campaign has only one staffer, though party officials boast of an active volunteer corps and plans to soon open 14 offices.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-trump-effect-could-arizona-go-blue-for-the-first-time-in-20-years/2016/06/18/a1ffe53e-34aa-11e6-8758-d58e76e11b12_story.html
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2016, 05:19:11 pm »

Still within the MOE. Trump could be up by a point and a half. But, it begins.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2016, 10:31:22 pm »

BEAUTIFUL! Time to finally turn this son of a bitch blue.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2016, 11:27:43 pm »

This fits well with Trump +5-10 in TX and Clinton +5-10 in FL and could help explain the national polls vs. 2012 swing state results discrepancy.

This does explain why OH and PA are tied yet Clinton leads 5-6 points nationally. She is doing very well in AZ, FL and TX.

I really do think the Clinton camp and allies should look at what other states besides PA and OH they can target to offset possible loses there. NC > AZ > GA > MO are my picks.
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philly09
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« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2016, 07:25:07 pm »

Tim Miller, advisor to Our Principles PAC, tweeted that there was a private statewide poll that matches this.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2016, 07:31:41 pm »

Tim Miller, advisor to Our Principles PAC, tweeted that there was a private statewide poll that matches this.

https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/746111400985038849
Beautiful!

Quote
Birdie passes along a private AZ statewide poll with Hillary +4 on Trump. Matches this public # from yesterday. Ouch
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Arch
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2016, 10:22:05 pm »

Tim Miller, advisor to Our Principles PAC, tweeted that there was a private statewide poll that matches this.

https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/746111400985038849
Beautiful!

Quote
Birdie passes along a private AZ statewide poll with Hillary +4 on Trump. Matches this public # from yesterday. Ouch

Tilt/Lean D?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2016, 08:51:34 am »

Nice. A border state may vote against Drumpf. Looks like they’re not excited with the wall.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2016, 05:48:16 pm »

Stupendous news! #FeeltheHill
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2016, 05:50:32 pm »

New Poll: Arizona President by Other Source on 2016-06-20

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2016, 07:46:35 pm »

Nice. A border state may vote against Drumpf. Looks like they’re not excited with the wall.

Did anyone think that California or New Mexico was going to vote for Demagogue Don?
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