Why I don't think Trump can rely on Hillary's unpopularity.

[136or142]

Hillary Clinton has seen her unpopularity spike on five occasions by my recollection:

1.From around 1979-1980 when she was the Arkansas first lady, wanted to be called Hillary Rodham and her husband (with her backing) pursued what the majority of Arkansasans perceived to be a 'radical liberal' agenda.

She recovered from this when he was returned as Governor in 1982 and she said she had no problem with being called Hillary Clinton and she focused on issues of particular concern to children.

2.During and following the health care debacle around 1994 when she first faced legitimate criticism for insisted on holding discussions in private and illegitimate criticism on her proposal from the status quo health care lobby, the furiousity of which clearly surprised her.

I think she mostly recovered from this by laying low for a period of time.

3.During the time of the mostly alleged scandals, especially, I believe, when her Rose Law Firm billing records mysteriously 'appeared' somewhere in the White House (I forget which room.)

This time, she responded by fighting back with her, in my opinion, largely correct claim that she and her husband were being attacked by a 'vast right wing conspiracy.'  I don't know if fighting back helped her but the right wing, as many of them are wont to do as a lot even backed then believed in all sorts of nonsensical conspiracy theories, overreached by trying to make the non-scandal of 'Travelgate' into a scandal and by even saying she was involved in the murder of Vince Foster (who committed suicide.)  

4.I forget what happened after the news of Bill Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky came out that at the time made her seem sympathetic and caused her popularity to rise, but I remember she started her race for the U.S Senate in 2000 against then likely Republican nominee Rudy Guiliani as an underdog.  My guess is it was general 'Clinton fatigue' combined with her carpetbagging.

During her time in the U.S Senate though, she mastered national issues as well as the issues of concern to the people in all the counties of New York and she was reelected by a 2-1 margin in 2006, winning every county.  There was a fact check on this by some poster here who pointed out that Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand were both reelected by wider margins than Hillary Clinton was in their reelection campaigns subsequent to Hillary Clinton's reelection, but they both faced fringe challengers, while she faced the Mayor of Yonkers, who, at least in theory, should have done better in Upstate New York than he did.

5.During the 2008 campaign when she ran against Barack Obama and her husband made some idiotic and even possibly racist comments while she made at least one bizarre false claim.  She responded by becoming a 'champion of the underdog' and nearly came back to defeat Obama for the nomination (not that she was ever trailing him in the pledged delegate count by a wide margin.)

So, it has been said that Hillary Clinton is at 'her best' when she is responding to attacks.  But, I think it's more accurate to say that a lot of people don't like her in the abstract but when they see her doing 'concrete' things, a fair number of them, if they don't exactly start liking her, they kind of forget why they dislike her so much.

I would expect now that she is campaigning nationally that her unfavorables  will decline a fair bit to the point where the vast majority of people who say they approve of President Obama's performance (50-53% in nearly all polls) but also say they see her unfavorably will start being favorable to her.

[Green Line]

I agree.

[Curbstomp]

With all due respect, you call Trump a rapist while ignoring Hillary's support of Bill against allegations of rape (it seems her assertion that rape victims should be believed doesn't apply if they accuse Bill)

Something to think about carefully

[Tartarus Sauce]

He can't rely on Hillary's unpopularity because he's even more unpopular.

[ProudModerate2]

With all due respect, you call Trump a rapist while ignoring Hillary's support of Bill against allegations of rape (it seems her assertion that rape victims should be believed doesn't apply if they accuse Bill)
Something to think about carefully

Something else that you need to think about carefully, before you comment, is that trump himself was supporting Bill against those same allegations of rape.
trump is on-record using "derogatory terms" to describe these women.
(But then that should not be a surprise, since trump degrades women all the time.)

[ProudModerate2]

Because trump is trump (the foolish un-presidential clown), he NEVER had an opportunity "to rely on Hillary's unpopularity" to win.

[Fuzzy Bear]

As to Adam T's #1 point:  It was BILL Clinton who overcame that, by running in 1982, when Cuban refugees weren't overrunning Ft. Smith, Arkansas.  Hillary was NEVER popular with Arkansans.

As to point #2 and point #3:  Hillary didn't recover from these issues until after the Democratic Party paid the price.  Furthermore, "laying low" requires time, and Hillary doesn't have the time to "lay low" now.  If "laying low" is the solution to Hillary at this point, the problem won't be solved at this point.

As to point #4:  Trump will use the issue of her treatment of Bill Clinton's accusers against her.  This is a double winner for Trump, who can call out the entire Feminist Left along with her.  How will Hillary look if her participation in a smear campaign against Bill's accusers becomes a debate topic?  Trump won't be afraid to use this issue, and it WILL resonate with SOME women who would ordinarily vote for Hillary.

I'll agree with point #5, by and large.

The bottom line for all of this is that TIME has been the critical element for Hillary to outrun negativity.  Time is what no one really has right now in the Presidential race.  And there are 800 pound gorillas in the room that time won't chase away.  If Trump is standing under an ugly civil suit (Trump University), Hillary is standing under the possibility of a criminal indictment, a step that a former Republican Attorney General (Michael Mukasey) has labeled as justified; yes, he's a partisan Republican, but even partisans rarely speak in these terms against someone like Clinton (who, after all, is a fellow insider).  I personally don't think Hillary will be indicted ever, but I do think that the way the e-mail issue plays out could end up with a load of negativity that would cost her 5-10 points in the polls.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

As to point #4:  Trump will use the issue of her treatment of Bill Clinton's accusers against her.  This is a double winner for Trump, who can call out the entire Feminist Left along with her.  How will Hillary look if her participation in a smear campaign against Bill's accusers becomes a debate topic?  Trump won't be afraid to use this issue, and it WILL resonate with SOME women who would ordinarily vote for Hillary.

I have a strong suspicion that if and when Trump tries to unload that gun in Clinton's direction, not only will it backfire, but he'll be inundated with an avalanche of his own affairs.

[ProudModerate2]

As to point #4:  Trump will use the issue of her treatment of Bill Clinton's accusers against her.  This is a double winner for Trump, who can call out the entire Feminist Left along with her.  How will Hillary look if her participation in a smear campaign against Bill's accusers becomes a debate topic?  Trump won't be afraid to use this issue, and it WILL resonate with SOME women who would ordinarily vote for Hillary.

I have a strong suspicion that if and when Trump tries to unload that gun in Clinton's direction, not only will it backfire, but he'll be inundated with an avalanche of his own affairs.

And what about trump's own "treatment of Bill Clinton's accusers" ?
Here is an excerpt from a story in The Washington Post :

....Trump is indicting both Clintons (Bill and Hillary) for their treatment of women such as Paula Jones, Monica Lewinsky, and Juanita Broaddrick, and positioning himself as their chivalrous defender — in order to defuse attacks on his own misogyny.
It turns out, though, that Trump did not think much of those same women at the time: He dismissed Paula Jones as a “loser” and suggested that Clinton would have gotten into less trouble over Monica Lewinsky if he had had an affair with a woman who was more “beautiful.”

Read the full story and weep .....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/05/24/donald-trump-once-described-bill-clintons-women-as-unattractive-losers/

[136or142]

With all due respect, you call Trump a rapist while ignoring Hillary's support of Bill against allegations of rape (it seems her assertion that rape victims should be believed doesn't apply if they accuse Bill)

Something to think about carefully

I do so because Rapist Trump makes wild accusations against his opponents ("Ted Cruz' father was pictured with Lee Harvey Oswald")  and engages in name calling.  If Rapist Trump can call Hillary Clinton, 'Crooked Hillary' Then I can call him Rapist Trump.

When I was asked previously why I referred to Rapist Trump as Rapist Trump, I brought up both the affidavit signed by Ivana Trump and this story.  I also said that I had serious doubts about this story and that Rapist Trump had never been charged, yet alone convicted of rape, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander.  So, you and Rapist Trump can just stuff it.

[136or142]

The bottom line for all of this is that TIME has been the critical element for Hillary to outrun negativity.  Time is what no one really has right now in the Presidential race.  And there are 800 pound gorillas in the room that time won't chase away.  If Trump is standing under an ugly civil suit (Trump University), Hillary is standing under the possibility of a criminal indictment, a step that a former Republican Attorney General (Michael Mukasey) has labeled as justified; yes, he's a partisan Republican, but even partisans rarely speak in these terms against someone like Clinton (who, after all, is a fellow insider).  I personally don't think Hillary will be indicted ever, but I do think that the way the e-mail issue plays out could end up with a load of negativity that would cost her 5-10 points in the polls.

1.How would Mukasey have any idea, has he actually seen the evidence?

2.My point is actually that it was only TIME that helped her overcome her negative approval with the public the first couple times she saw her approval drop.  Since then, she's learned that when she either fights back or when she simply is seen by the public as being active in a positive way, that her approval ratings bounce back.

3.I don't see why the e-mail scandal would hurt her any more than it already has.  I think your hope that it would cost her 5-10% is wishful thinking on your part.  In comparison to Psychopathic Trump's erratic behavior and obvious extreme thin skin, Hillary's email's are kid stuff.

As they said in Louisiana in one election: "Vote for the criminal, it's important."

[IceSpear]

He can't rely on Hillary's unpopularity because he's even more unpopular.