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  NC-PPP: Trump +2
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Trump +2  (Read 1597 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: June 23, 2016, 12:23:16 pm »

Head to Head:
Trump - 48%
Clinton - 46%

4 Person Race:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%
Undecided - 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/presidential-race-knotted-in-nc-senate-race-close.html
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2016, 12:37:27 pm »

Enough Johnson voters will come home for Trump in the end. He should win this state.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2016, 12:43:14 pm »

+2 for Clinton from last month (both for Head to Head, and all four). Interestingly, they also asked about an Obama Trump hypothetical which ended up in a 49-48 Obama split.
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Human
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2016, 12:45:27 pm »

There's a very high possibility that the 2016 map will be identical to the 2012 map.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2016, 12:45:55 pm »

Enough Johnson voters will come home for Trump in the end. He should win this state.

"If Clinton could win over just half of Sanders fans holding out right now, she'd lead Trump 48/43 in North Carolina"
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EliteLX
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2016, 12:45:57 pm »

NC showing 2012 numbers right now? Expected.

No surprise here.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2016, 01:26:28 pm »

Enough Johnson voters will come home for Trump in the end. He should win this state.

"If Clinton could win over just half of Sanders fans holding out right now, she'd lead Trump 48/43 in North Carolina"

NC is currently the canary in a coal mine. Clinton has been benefiting from Trump losing support due to obvious reason, but she has a consolidation problem that is hiding under the surface. NC right now is a tossup and that tossup comes down to Bernie supporters. What happens if the race tightens up nationally, then Bernie supporters could become the difference between winning FL, OH, VA and PA. 

This is why Clinton and the Dems are being nice to Bernie and negotiating with him and not calling for him to drop out, etc. They know this is a problem, but one that can probably be fixed by November.   
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2016, 01:32:18 pm »

Considering the fact that Big Don had a few rough weeks, he's in good shape. After the convention, his numbers should further improve.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2016, 01:57:01 pm »

Not so bad for Trump all things considered.  Fits my overall view that Trump will at least keep it somewhat close and most likely lose along the lines of 2012 margins.  More importantly this campaign be a harbinger of the a successful future White polarization strategy for the GOP.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2016, 02:03:57 pm »

Many of Sanders' voters in North Carolina were Dixiecrats that wanted to give the finger to Obama and would have voted for TRUMP if the primary was open. These people will never vote for Clinton no matter what ol' Bernie says and does.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2016, 04:10:16 pm »

Enough Johnson voters will come home for Trump in the end. He should win this state.

Johnson is closer to an orthodox Republican as we have seen in the last 40 years than is Demagogue Don. Many Republicans may find that 'home' seems more like Johnson/Weld, especially if they are well educated.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2016, 04:11:26 pm »

Many of Sanders' voters in North Carolina were Dixiecrats that wanted to give the finger to Obama and would have voted for TRUMP if the primary was open. These people will never vote for Clinton no matter what ol' Bernie says and does.

Well that has nothing to do with this poll. The issue they are raising is that 1/4 of those with a positive view of Sanders are not willing to support Clinton, or at least not yet. 

The 'Dixiecrats' who voted for Sanders in various Southern primaries probably don't have a positive view of Sanders or Clinton. So comparing primary voters to those who are being polled is comparing apples to oranges.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2016, 05:12:14 pm »

This really isn't a good poll for Trump considering if Sanders supporters get on board her lead expands to 5.

Just another state that Trump can't afford to lose that is in Clinton's grasp.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2016, 05:16:58 pm »

Wouldn't it actually be tied considering the third parties... exist?
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2016, 05:18:29 pm »

Lines up with another (R-leaning I believe) poll of Watauga County with Trump +3.
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
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« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2016, 05:44:10 pm »

Not bad. This state is clearly in play.
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2016, 11:55:43 pm »

Like most southern states, voting here is particularly polarized, so it will swing less than most states in play. This reads: advantage Clinton, but by no means set in stone.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2016, 08:19:17 am »

Wouldn't it actually be tied considering the third parties... exist?

I wasn't sure which one to go with for the title, but the RCP electoral map uses the head to head so I thought that was more appropriate.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2016, 10:28:05 am »

I'm going with a three-way contest because the Libertarian ticket already has two former State governors with much more political experience than the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. Should they get 10% of the vote (Perot got nearly 19% of the popular vote in 1992, so that is not without precedent) then they can shape the election to the detriment of Trump.

It could get worse for Trump should Sanders voters warm up to Hillary Clinton as he suggests that they do. We could be going from seeing a near-replay of 2008 or 2012 to something like 1964.   
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2016, 05:56:29 pm »

+2 for Clinton from last month (both for Head to Head, and all four). Interestingly, they also asked about an Obama Trump hypothetical which ended up in a 49-48 Obama split.

B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but I thought Obama or Biden or literally any Democrat would be crushing Trump by 20+ points right now! It's only remotely competitive because Hillary is teh worst candidate EVAR1!11111!1!!111111

- Atlas #analysis
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RFayette
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« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2016, 05:58:46 pm »

+2 for Clinton from last month (both for Head to Head, and all four). Interestingly, they also asked about an Obama Trump hypothetical which ended up in a 49-48 Obama split.

B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but I thought Obama or Biden or literally any Democrat would be crushing Trump by 20+ points right now! It's only remotely competitive because Hillary is teh worst candidate EVAR1!11111!1!!111111

- Atlas #analysis

I like most of your posts, but sometimes I wonder if you and TNVolunteer have enough strawmen to open a hay factory. Tongue
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2016, 06:01:59 pm »

+2 for Clinton from last month (both for Head to Head, and all four). Interestingly, they also asked about an Obama Trump hypothetical which ended up in a 49-48 Obama split.

B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but I thought Obama or Biden or literally any Democrat would be crushing Trump by 20+ points right now! It's only remotely competitive because Hillary is teh worst candidate EVAR1!11111!1!!111111

- Atlas #analysis

I like most of your posts, but sometimes I wonder if you and TNVolunteer have enough strawmen to open a hay factory. Tongue

It's not a strawman. I have seen this same thought regurgitated dozens if not hundreds of times here.

"It's only close because MUH BAD CANDIDATE HILLARY!!!!!"

Face it guys, no Democrat would be a lock against Trump. The country is very polarized and 45% will vote Republican under any circumstances.
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RFayette
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« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2016, 06:04:34 pm »

+2 for Clinton from last month (both for Head to Head, and all four). Interestingly, they also asked about an Obama Trump hypothetical which ended up in a 49-48 Obama split.

B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but I thought Obama or Biden or literally any Democrat would be crushing Trump by 20+ points right now! It's only remotely competitive because Hillary is teh worst candidate EVAR1!11111!1!!111111

- Atlas #analysis

I like most of your posts, but sometimes I wonder if you and TNVolunteer have enough strawmen to open a hay factory. Tongue

It's not a strawman. I have seen this same thought regurgitated dozens if not hundreds of times here.

"It's only close because MUH BAD CANDIDATE HILLARY!!!!!"

Face it guys, no Democrat would be a lock against Trump. The country is very polarized and 45% will vote Republican under any circumstances.

I agree.  I'm just saying that most of the things you cite are not that common on Atlas (and especially AAD), at least from what I've seen (maybe I don't go on the 2016 board enough).  I've seen more of that type of analysis outside Atlas/AAD rather than inside it.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2016, 07:02:33 pm »

+2 for Clinton from last month (both for Head to Head, and all four). Interestingly, they also asked about an Obama Trump hypothetical which ended up in a 49-48 Obama split.

B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but I thought Obama or Biden or literally any Democrat would be crushing Trump by 20+ points right now! It's only remotely competitive because Hillary is teh worst candidate EVAR1!11111!1!!111111

- Atlas #analysis

I like most of your posts, but sometimes I wonder if you and TNVolunteer have enough strawmen to open a hay factory. Tongue

It's not a strawman. I have seen this same thought regurgitated dozens if not hundreds of times here.

"It's only close because MUH BAD CANDIDATE HILLARY!!!!!"

Face it guys, no Democrat would be a lock against Trump. The country is very polarized and 45% will vote Republican under any circumstances.

I agree.  I'm just saying that most of the things you cite are not that common on Atlas (and especially AAD), at least from what I've seen (maybe I don't go on the 2016 board enough).  I've seen more of that type of analysis outside Atlas/AAD rather than inside it.

After 10 minutes of browsing the 2016 board, not even looking for it...

I broadly agree with this.  Hillary's unpopularity is why she's up 6ish instead of 16ish right now.  If it were Obama running with a marginally popular outgoing President Hillary, he would be absolutely destroying Trump in 35+ states right now.  Of course, I doubt that Trump would ever have been nominated with a white Dem president in office, and while any serious Dem would have won in 2008, I really doubt Hillary could have beaten Romney in the 2012 economy (if she did, it would probably be in an EV/PV split).
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Ebsy
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« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2016, 07:04:24 pm »

Stein almost certainly won't be on the ballot in North Carolina so there is little point in polling here there.
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