AZ - Predictive Insights: Clinton +4.3

[Ronnie]

Conducted 6/20, MOE +/- 3.01%

Clinton 46.5%
Trump 42.2%
Third party candidate 5.8%

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-2A45CA0283AA87B8

[Human]

>Decimals

[dspNY]

I don't think this poll is that far off the mark. Arizona is a tossup and it won't be long before Clinton spends money there

[Wells]

No demographic crosstabs? I'm taking this poll with a grain of salt, but I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton is leading here.

[Seriously?]

What the heck does this even mean?

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on June 20, 2016, from a 2016 general election sample. The sample size was 1,060 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.01%

RV? LV? Adults? Just call and let whomever answer the phone input the info? Seems like a one-question poll

[Xing]

lol, decimals. Hard to buy this poll, but we should keep an eye on Arizona. Even if Hillary can't win there, if she can make it close, that's a bad sign for Trump.

[Likely Voter]

No idea if this pollster is to be taken seriously. WaPo did have an article on Clinton and AZ a few days ago with some fun tidbits

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-trump-effect-could-arizona-go-blue-for-the-first-time-in-20-years/2016/06/18/a1ffe53e-34aa-11e6-8758-d58e76e11b12_story.html

[Wisconsin+17]

Still within the MOE. Trump could be up by a point and a half. But, it begins.

[Lief 🗽]

BEAUTIFUL! Time to finally turn this son of a bitch blue.

[RJEvans]

This fits well with Trump +5-10 in TX and Clinton +5-10 in FL and could help explain the national polls vs. 2012 swing state results discrepancy.

This does explain why OH and PA are tied yet Clinton leads 5-6 points nationally. She is doing very well in AZ, FL and TX.

I really do think the Clinton camp and allies should look at what other states besides PA and OH they can target to offset possible loses there. NC > AZ > GA > MO are my picks.

[philly09]

Tim Miller, advisor to Our Principles PAC, tweeted that there was a private statewide poll that matches this.

[HillOfANight]

Tim Miller, advisor to Our Principles PAC, tweeted that there was a private statewide poll that matches this.

https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/746111400985038849
Beautiful!

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[Dr. Arch]

Tim Miller, advisor to Our Principles PAC, tweeted that there was a private statewide poll that matches this.

https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/746111400985038849
Beautiful!

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Tilt/Lean D?

[Sir Mohamed]

Nice. A border state may vote against Drumpf. Looks like they’re not excited with the wall.

[IceSpear]

Stupendous news! #FeeltheHill

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Arizona President by Other Source on 2016-06-20

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[pbrower2a]

Nice. A border state may vote against Drumpf. Looks like they’re not excited with the wall.

Did anyone think that California or New Mexico was going to vote for Demagogue Don?