Strategies 360: Trump+5 in Maricopa County, AZ

[Tender Branson]

44% Trump
39% Clinton
  2% Others
10% Neither
  5% Undecided

McCain leads 50-35 in the Senate race.

The survey of 503 likely voters in Maricopa County was done June 6-12 by live callers, and included Spanish-language voters and cell phone numbers.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2895717-Maricopa-County-Poll-Results.html#document/p1

[Tender Branson]

Maricopa County is slightly more GOP-voting than AZ as a whole, so it's probably Trump by 3 or 4 statewide.

[Tender Branson]

Currently, it looks like AZ "could be" in play - but probably not:

I remember that early AZ polls in 2008 and 2012 also had Obama close to a tie and we know how it ended ...

And this year, with the anti-Latino election hurdles in place, it will certainly not be easy for Hilldog to win that state.

[Ebsy]

Single county polls are always suspect.

[Green Line]

Looks like Maricopa County is SAFE R

[HillOfANight]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Arizona,_2012
Romney won by 10 in Maricopa 54-44.

[Gass3268]

Single county polls are always suspect.

True, but a county large enough like Maricopa can help fix a lot of the issues with single county polls.

[5280]

If Maricopa county votes for R or D, so goes the state?

[pbrower2a]

Maricopa County may be the most conservative giant metropolitan county in America, as it contains the sixth-largest city in the US.

If it goes from having a 10% R margin to having a 5% R margin, then it can swing the state.

I'm guessing that Arizona is getting lots of people moving out of California, and those recent Californians are bringing their politics with them. See Virginia eight years ago for a similar phenomenon.

[5280]

Maricopa County may be the most conservative giant metropolitan county in America, as it contains the sixth-largest city in the US.

If it goes from having a 10% R margin to having a 5% R margin, then it can swing the state.

I'm guessing that Arizona is getting lots of people moving out of California, and those recent Californians are bringing their politics with them. See Virginia eight years ago for a similar phenomenon.

The problem is, they don't want to assimilate to the new area, but change the demographics with their old voting habits.  If I was a Californian and moved to Arizona, I want to assimilate to the politics and culture, not try to change it. Isn't that the entire point of moving?  What you have here is an endless cycle.

The fortunate thing, I'm a Coloradoan and moving to Arizona, not going to change the way the state is ran, unlike Californians and east coast people.

[Mallow]

Maricopa County may be the most conservative giant metropolitan county in America, as it contains the sixth-largest city in the US.

If it goes from having a 10% R margin to having a 5% R margin, then it can swing the state.

I'm guessing that Arizona is getting lots of people moving out of California, and those recent Californians are bringing their politics with them. See Virginia eight years ago for a similar phenomenon.

The problem is, they don't want to assimilate to the new area, but change the demographics with their old voting habits.  If I was a Californian and moved to Arizona, I want to assimilate to the politics and culture, not try to change it. Isn't that the entire point of moving?  What you have here is an endless cycle.

The fortunate thing, I'm a Coloradoan and moving to Arizona, not going to change the way the state is ran, unlike Californians and east coast people.

Most people don't have the luxury of choosing a place to live based on the location's politics. Why shouldn't a person who doesn't like the politics of where they live try to change it? Or are you suggesting it's not okay to try to sway someone's political beliefs?

[Badger]

If Maricopa county votes for R or D, so goes the state?

if it votes D, absolutely. if it votes R by a close margin, not necessarily

[pbrower2a]

Maricopa County may be the most conservative giant metropolitan county in America, as it contains the sixth-largest city in the US.

If it goes from having a 10% R margin to having a 5% R margin, then it can swing the state.

I'm guessing that Arizona is getting lots of people moving out of California, and those recent Californians are bringing their politics with them. See Virginia eight years ago for a similar phenomenon.

The problem is, they don't want to assimilate to the new area, but change the demographics with their old voting habits.  If I was a Californian and moved to Arizona, I want to assimilate to the politics and culture, not try to change it. Isn't that the entire point of moving?  What you have here is an endless cycle.

The fortunate thing, I'm a Coloradoan and moving to Arizona, not going to change the way the state is ran, unlike Californians and east coast people.

The culture isn't that different between Phoenix and Los Angeles. Politics? Why should someone who goes from western Texas be obliged to change his political values just because he has gone to a big northern urban area? If I had to move to the South do you think that I would start flying the Flag of Racism?

Politics dovetail with values, and change in one's political values comes slowly if at all. Maybe one says something like "I didn't leave the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party left me"

[5280]

Maricopa County may be the most conservative giant metropolitan county in America, as it contains the sixth-largest city in the US.

If it goes from having a 10% R margin to having a 5% R margin, then it can swing the state.

I'm guessing that Arizona is getting lots of people moving out of California, and those recent Californians are bringing their politics with them. See Virginia eight years ago for a similar phenomenon.

The problem is, they don't want to assimilate to the new area, but change the demographics with their old voting habits.  If I was a Californian and moved to Arizona, I want to assimilate to the politics and culture, not try to change it. Isn't that the entire point of moving?  What you have here is an endless cycle.

The fortunate thing, I'm a Coloradoan and moving to Arizona, not going to change the way the state is ran, unlike Californians and east coast people.

The culture isn't that different between Phoenix and Los Angeles. Politics? Why should someone who goes from western Texas be obliged to change his political values just because he has gone to a big northern urban area? If I had to move to the South do you think that I would start flying the Flag of Racism?

Politics dovetail with values, and change in one's political values comes slowly if at all. Maybe one says something like "I didn't leave the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party left me"

It isn't a matter of me changing my politics, its a fact that I won't move to an uber liberal urban area and adopting the local politics. There are liberals out there who refuse to move to a conservatives state.  Same thing with myself, I don't identify with the Republican party or Democratic party. Both are worthless in my opinion.

[Wisconsin+17]

Texan refugee myself. Californians should stay the heck away.

Yes, some of us can't afford to move, and some of us can't afford not to.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd be very surprised if local leaders like Scott Smith endorse Trump.