Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[Harry Hayfield]

Although there is no requirement for the new Prime Minister to hold a general election, given how the Conservatives badgered Gordon Brown to hold an election (and then he bottled it at the last minute) I would be very surprised if the new Prime Minister did not call a general election shortly after his election in October. However, of course, that would mean having to square the circle of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which requires 426 MP's to vote for an election). I suppose one possible option would to be offer the government's resignation and then challenge Labour and the SNP to form a majority (which is impossible) and then hold an election.

[Helsinkian]

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http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/tories-plan-november-general-election-to-win-brexit-government-mandate/

[swl]

I don't think it's a good idea. Cameron should not leave the ship now. He should be the one deciding to leave the EU, and only after he can let someone else lead the negotiations.
What happens if the new government is not in favor of Brexit? It would be a mess...

[ag]

I don't think it's a good idea. Cameron should not leave the ship now. He should be the one deciding to leave the EU, and only after he can let someone else lead the negotiations.
What happens if the new government is not in favor of Brexit? It would be a mess...

Cameron cannot stay. He bet on winning the referendum, and he lost. His ability to govern is gone. In any case, he recognizes this and he has announced his resignation.  Frankly, I am upset that it is delayed till October - he should have been gone by sunset tonight.

The question is, if Tories can find a substitute or not. If they can, they might be able to continue governing. Frankly, I would find that to be disgusting, but, at least, it is conceptually possible. Still, I think elections should be held ASAP.

If a pro-EU government is elected, it will be very unpleasant for it to negotiate Brexit. But it must.

[ag]

The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

[Vega]

The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Johnson or Gove/McDonnell will be the leaders, I'm nearly certain

[ag]

The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Johnson or Gove/McDonnell will be the leaders, I'm nearly certain

I would think Theresa May should not be discarded.

[Vega]

The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Johnson or Gove/McDonnell will be the leaders, I'm nearly certain

I would think Theresa May should not be discarded.

By all accounts, the parliamentary party really isn't all that enamored with her. Her being relatively quiet during the referendum also hasn't done her wonders.

[Simfan34]

The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Johnson or Gove/McDonnell will be the leaders, I'm nearly certain

I would think Theresa May should not be discarded.

I second this. Johnson will probably not survive the selection process by the MPs. Keep in mind that a majority of Tory MPs backed remain. Also keep in mind that with his expansive patronage network (because that's what it is) George Osborne could, if he wanted to run, still probably muster enough support to make the runoff. Of course, he'd be roundly thrashed at that point, if he actually ran, but the point is that he retains considerable of influence amongst MPs and will thus be a key player in the leadership race.

Ultimately my hunch would be that the next leader will either be a soft remain frontbencher like May or Javid, or some unknown backbencher or junior minister, quite possibly linked to Osborne's network and related circles like the Free Enterprise Group. This would mean Patel, Raab, Kwarteng, and so forth (even though none of those are exactly unknowns), all of whom backed leave yet are connected to that network.

Indeed the more I think about it, the more possible George Osborne somehow managing to emerge as a winner in all this seems...

EDIT: Okay, no one's mentioned Kwesi Kwarteng, but he'd be exactly the kind of dark horse people are talking about. And not only is he a fellow Ghanaian, but I actually think he's actually a nephew of one of my "uncles". I suppose it's too late to try and get to know him now, if anything were to actually happen...

[Vega]

I still find it funny to think that the Conservative Party is leading in ethnic diversity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

lol

[Zinneke]

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

lol

The Tory brand is no longer moderate and moderates are what swing the key constuecies.

The LibDems will probably have a strong vote share.

[DC Al Fine]

That's a bold prediction.. This is the UK, not Canada. Parties don't regularly have 15% swings.

[Mr. Morden]

Any predictions for what the next round of general election polling will look like, post-Brexit vote?  Which parties gain and which parties lose in the short term from Brexit having passed?

[DL]

What happens to UKIP now? Do they surge Asa result of getting their way in the referendum? Or does their support evaporate because people have had the catharsis of getting a Leave victory in the referendum and if the new Tory leader is a pro-Leave guy like Johnson...doesn't that leave UKIP with no raison d'etre?

[Zanas]

What happens to UKIP now? Do they surge Asa result of getting their way in the referendum? Or does their support evaporate because people have had the catharsis of getting a Leave victory in the referendum and if the new Tory leader is a pro-Leave guy like Johnson...doesn't that leave UKIP with no raison d'etre?

UKIP's raison d'être has always really been xenophobia, nothing else, and there's still plenty of room for that.

[ag]

That's a bold prediction.. This is the UK, not Canada. Parties don't regularly have 15% swings.

And UK does not regularly exit EU.

[ag]

What happens to UKIP now? Do they surge Asa result of getting their way in the referendum? Or does their support evaporate because people have had the catharsis of getting a Leave victory in the referendum and if the new Tory leader is a pro-Leave guy like Johnson...doesn't that leave UKIP with no raison d'etre?

UKIP's raison d'être has always really been xenophobia, nothing else, and there's still plenty of room for that.

Well put.

[vileplume]

The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Resurgence may be too strong a word but their may be an opening for the Lib Dems to appeal to heavily remain Tory constituencies where they have done well in the past e.g. Winchester. However it is far from a certainty or even likely that this would happen.

Lamb would have been a far better choice than Farron to appeal to socially liberal Tory voters. Farron is just fiscally too far to the left for many of these people's tastes.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Safe Johnson win if Corbyn survives, lean Labor if he's ousted for someone sane.

[vileplume]

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

lol

The Tory brand is no longer moderate and moderates are what swing the key constuecies.

The LibDems will probably have a strong vote share.

Er no. The Lib Dems are irrelevant in most constituencies especially in the Con-Lab marginals which decide who forms the government. If you look at where leave did well at the referendum it did disproportionally better in most Con-Lab marginals than leave did nationally. If you are expecting some amazing Lib Dem surge in marginals like Nuneaton, Cannock Chase, Erewash, Crawley etc. you are going to be severly disappointed.

[vileplume]

Regarding the upcoming Tory leadership election there is apparently talk that the Cameroon/remain wing of the party is considering throwing their support behind Andrea Leadsom in order to defeat Boris as they don't think a remainer could ever get past the membership.

[vileplume]

Safe Johnson win if Corbyn survives, lean Labor if he's ousted for someone sane.

It is definitely true that the Labour membership threw the Tory party a massive lifeline by electing Corbyn as leader. Even if Corbyn is deposed though Labour's massive problems with the skilled white working class/lower middle class are still very much there. Unlike the USA there are simply not enough ethnic minorities and middle class lefties to replace their votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any predictions for what the next round of general election polling will look like, post-Brexit vote?  Which parties gain and which parties lose in the short term from Brexit having passed?

All kinds of things could be shown, but I don't think it matters.

[ag]

So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).