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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« on: June 24, 2016, 10:46:39 am »

Which party will emerge victorious?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2016, 04:41:29 pm »

Here are my very early predictions: It depends on how you define "victorious." If you mean, which one will come out with a net gain, the Republicans, unless NV and/or AZ fall, and Democrats hold everything else (or lose only one of they pick up both southwest seats). If you're asking which party will have the majority, I'd say Republicans, so long as their losses this year aren't that bad. But anything can happen.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2016, 04:32:01 am »

Depends on who is president. I expect Big Don to be in the White House, so Republicans will have some minor losses.

If Hilldog occupies the White House, the GOP will make gains.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2016, 11:30:00 pm »

Arizona: Likely R
California: Likely D (Assuming Feinstein retires. The D bench in California is so clogged up that any sense of "It's this person's turn now" is going to crumble at some point and lead to an R vs. R general - just a question of when.)
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean D
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Likely R (pickup)
Maine: Lean I (LePage has already said he'll run unless he's part of Trump's cabinet, and some "real dem" might run too.)
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Likely D (Klobuchar could always get tapped for SCOTUS)
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Lean R (pickup)
Montana: Lean R (pickup)
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Jersey: Likely D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Lean R (pickup)
Ohio: Toss-Up
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe I
Virginia: Toss-Up
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Lean D
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R

So, depending on the Toss-Ups, R+3 to R+6 at this incredibly early juncture.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2016, 02:49:50 am »

Republicans will retain or regain the Senate, unless 2016 ends up becoming a complete Democratic tsunami. And even then they still might retake it.

This is why Hilldawg needs to pack the courts as quickly as possible if Dems win the Senate in 2016. If by some miracle they take the House, apply that double with legislation. The Republicans would be swept in regardless 2 years later, so you might as well go balls to the wall.
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2016, 06:19:54 am »

If Clinton wins



MA and VA may be dependent on special elections if Warren/Kaine are VP nominees, in which case the ratings may be different.

If Trump wins

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NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2016, 02:21:34 am »

Arizona: Likely R
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean D
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Lean R
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Lean R
Montana: Toss-Up
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Toss-Up
Ohio: Toss-Up
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Virginia: Lean D (Toss-Up if Kaine is VP)
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Lean R
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2016, 05:05:12 pm »

With the assumption that we go in with a 52 R, 48 D Senate:

With President Trump R+4 (56 R, 44 D):
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
Missouri
West Virginia

Nevada

With President Clinton R+10 (62 R, 38 D):
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
Missouri
West Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2016, 09:59:07 am »

With the assumption that we go in with a 52 R, 48 D Senate:

With President Trump R+4 (56 R, 44 D):
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
Missouri
West Virginia

Nevada

With President Clinton R+10 (62 R, 38 D):
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
Missouri
West Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin


wew lad
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2016, 12:25:17 pm »

With the assumption that we go in with a 52 R, 48 D Senate:

With President Trump R+4 (56 R, 44 D):
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
Missouri
West Virginia

Nevada

With President Clinton R+10 (62 R, 38 D):
Montana
North Dakota
Indiana
Missouri
West Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin


wew lad

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2016, 06:31:58 pm »

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.

B-b-but anything can happen in politics™

Apparently a lot of people in this thread think anything can happen in politics. Including a state that sees the Democrats as an anti-white hate group voting for a Democrat.
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Former GM 1184AZ
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« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2016, 08:01:52 pm »

90% Shading Safe
70% Shading Likley
30% Shading Lean
Grey Tossup (Virginia, West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Missouri)

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AGA
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« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2016, 03:55:41 pm »

I expect some gains for the Republicans since there are some Democratic senators in reliably Republican states. If the Democrats take the Senate in 2016, the Republicans will likely take it back in 2018. Of course, this all depends on who is in the White House at that time.
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2016, 12:52:33 am »

Most likely Hillary will be President. The map is favorable to the GOP and dissatisfaction Sith Hillary Cointon will likely rise, and more Republicans will vote. I think Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin can al to Republican. The last two midterms have been GOP waves, and if a Democrat is President the factors are there for a third wave, especially since Hillary for good or for bad is a polarising figure. The Democrats will probably have les than 55 Seats to begin with so will end in the high 40s but having lost the Senate. So they should try push as much as they can in the first two years, and geven midterms are a turnout game they should try to rally the base as the GOP is to minimalise potential losses. But avoid Reading too much into the midterms, when a Democrat is President it's a Republican-leaning electorate that turns out and issues the verdict, not representative of the nation. A huge wave may show some problems though.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2016, 04:05:48 pm »



Assuming Dems net 50 seats and over and Clinton prez, I am assuming Heikamp and Tester will be defeated.  Assuming Ross runs for Gov and Kate Marshall runs against Heller, this is a decent map assuming Paul Ryan is still Speaker having 232 seats.
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2016, 07:28:17 pm »

First post ever, here goes!

(Added a Tilt in between Tossup and Lean because I think there will be some pretty close elections this year.)

Arizona: Likely R
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Tilt R
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Lean R
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D (Lean D if Stabenow retires)
Minnesota: Safe D (Lean D if Klobuchar is appointed to SCOTUS)
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Tilt R (Lean R if McCaskill's opponent is Ann Wagner)
Montana: Tossup
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean R
New Jersey: Likely D
New Mexico: Safe D (Tossup if Heinrich's opponent is Susana Martinez)
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup (Tilt D if Heitkamp campaigns as well as in 2014)
Ohio: Tilt D
Pennsylvania: Tossup
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R (Safe R if a Castro Brother is not the Dem nominee)
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D/I (Basically, Safe Sanders)
Virginia: Tilt R
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Tilt D (Solid R if Manchin does a party switch)
Wisconsin: Tilt D (Tossup if Ryan-type is GOP nominee)
Wyoming: Safe R

I felt like being a little nice to the Democrats this cycle, but a lot of Dems up for reelection in 2018 are moderates and actually can lean conservative on the idealogical spectrum (Manchin, Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester). I'll just say that I would vote for any of those four Dems over a Far-Right Tea Party nut any day.

R+4, up to R+8 if all possible tossup scenarios are won by Republicans (although I think this is highly unlikely.)
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2016, 04:23:10 pm »

If Clinton wins:
Arizona: Lean R
California: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Hawaii: Likely D
Indiana: Lean R
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Likely D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Tilt/Lean D
Minnesota: Tossup/Tilt D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Tilt/Lean R
Montana: Tossup
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean R
New Jersey: Tilt/Lean D
New Mexico: Tilt/Lean D
New York: Likely D
North Dakota: Lean R
Ohio: Tossup/Tilt R
Pennsylvania: Tossup
Rhode Island: Likely D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R
Utah: Likely R
Vermont: Likely D
Virginia: Tossup/Tilt R
Washington: Tilt/Lean D
Wisconsin: Tossup
Wyoming: Safe R

Likely means watch the state, but probably Safe.
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« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2016, 09:43:10 pm »

Should Clinton somehow win in 2016, we would be looking at a GOP mega-tsunami in 2018:

Arizona: Safe R
California: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Delaware: Likely D
Florida: Lean R**
Hawaii: Likely D
Indiana: Likely R**
Maine: Leans I
Maryland: Likely D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Tossup/Tilt R**
Minnesota: Tossup/Tilt R**
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Safe R**
Montana: Likely R**
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Likely R
New Jersey: Tossup/Tilt R**
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Likely D
North Dakota: Safe R**
Ohio: Likely R**
Pennsylvania: Leans R**
Rhode Island: Likely D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Likely D
Virginia: Leans R**
Washington: Leans D
West Virginia: Leans R**
Wisconsin: Leans R**
Wyoming: Safe R

R+13  Note that I would not have a single race Safe D, and I think there would be the potential for the Democrats losing 18-20 of their 23 seats in that cycle under President Hillary.  Can you say VETO-PROOF MAJORITY??

If Trump gets elected, we still stand a good chance of getting the filibuster-proof majority by picking up the easy five (MO, ND, IN, WV, and MT) and probably two of the swing states (assuming that we lose IL and WI, but gain NV in 2016).

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« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2016, 05:06:01 pm »

Assuming a Clinton victory:

Arizona: Likely R
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Tossup/Tilt R
Hawaii: Very Safe D
Indiana: Lean R
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Lean D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Tossup/Tilt D
Montana: Likely R
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Likely R
New Jersey: Tossup/Tilt R
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Likely R
Ohio: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Tossup/Tilt R
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Very Safe R
Texas: Safe R, unfortunately
Utah: Very Safe R
Vermont: Safe Bernie. I'm assuming that he runs as a Dem in 2018.
Virginia: Lean R I'm assuming that a Republican wins the special election.
Washington: Very Safe D
West Virginia: Likely R
Wisconsin: Tossup/Tilt D
Wyoming: Very Safe R



R + 7

(I can't get Maine or Nebraska's electoral vote totals to go away.)
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« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2016, 05:09:11 pm »

Should Clinton somehow win in 2016, we would be looking at a GOP mega-tsunami in 2018:

Arizona: Safe R
California: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Delaware: Likely D
Florida: Lean R**
Hawaii: Likely D
Indiana: Likely R**
Maine: Leans I
Maryland: Likely D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Tossup/Tilt R**
Minnesota: Tossup/Tilt R**
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Safe R**
Montana: Likely R**
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Likely R
New Jersey: Tossup/Tilt R**
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Likely D
North Dakota: Safe R**
Ohio: Likely R**
Pennsylvania: Leans R**
Rhode Island: Likely D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Likely D
Virginia: Leans R**
Washington: Leans D
West Virginia: Leans R**
Wisconsin: Leans R**
Wyoming: Safe R

R+13  Note that I would not have a single race Safe D, and I think there would be the potential for the Democrats losing 18-20 of their 23 seats in that cycle under President Hillary.  Can you say VETO-PROOF MAJORITY??

If Trump gets elected, we still stand a good chance of getting the filibuster-proof majority by picking up the easy five (MO, ND, IN, WV, and MT) and probably two of the swing states (assuming that we lose IL and WI, but gain NV in 2016).



*delusional hack*
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2016, 04:38:29 pm »

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.

B-b-but anything can happen in politics™

Apparently a lot of people in this thread think anything can happen in politics. Including a state that sees the Democrats as an anti-white hate group voting for a Democrat.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_West_Virginia,_2010
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2008

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_special_election,_2011
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2008
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2016, 08:14:52 pm »


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_1992

Alabama = safe D!
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2016, 10:31:01 pm »


6 elections in the past eight years =/= 1 election twenty four years ago

Richard Shelby =/= Jay Rockefeller, Joe Manchin, or Tomblin

Of nine statewide elections in the past eight years, the Democrats won six of them. They lost President in 2008 and 2012 and Senator in 2014.

Of the lower offices(SoS, AG, Treasurer, Auditor, and Agriculture Commissioner), Democrats have won 9/10 elections in the past eight years.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2016, 01:46:43 am »


6 elections in the past eight years =/= 1 election twenty four years ago

Richard Shelby =/= Jay Rockefeller, Joe Manchin, or Tomblin

Of nine statewide elections in the past eight years, the Democrats won six of them. They lost President in 2008 and 2012 and Senator in 2014.

Of the lower offices(SoS, AG, Treasurer, Auditor, and Agriculture Commissioner), Democrats have won 9/10 elections in the past eight years.

Okay, how about this one?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas,_2008

I'm sure if I said Pryor was doomed in 2012 you could easily counter with that in the same way, along with the statewide office statistics. The point is, even 2012 was an eternity ago in terms of WV's extremely rapid political evolution. Manchin is already dead and buried. If you don't believe me, that's fine. You'll see for yourself in 2 years. Or not, since there's a good chance he'll see the writing on the wall and retire and Atlas will forever pretend he would've won had he run. Roll Eyes
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2016, 02:02:03 am »

Got it. I mean, sure, 2006 was a landslide for Democrats and Pryor didn't have a GOP opponent, but who needs all the facts when you can cherry pick them?
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