2018 Senatorial Elections

[jamestroll]

Dear god this is ridiculous.

STOP FIGHTING AND JUST MAKE A PREDICTION!!

People will continue to fight non stop until the election results next year all come in.

It ultimately comes down to whether midterms favor the out of power party or the GOP.

I mean, I'm absolutely struggling to think of a time where the party out of power didn't make massive gains when the incumbent President was below 50% approval, let alone 40%. But MUH Trump states

I mean 2016 did break a lot of rules also and Trumps approvals are solid in rural America and our election system has a biased towards rural America and add in the factor that midterms have a gop boost even when thwy favor the out power party I can kind of see why some users here think 2018 will be great gop year in Senate and the house seeing minimal gop losses.

I do not agree obviously.

[TheSaint250]

[Kamala]

Editing my prediction: AZ from tilt R to Tossup

[Heisenberg]

My updated prediction.

Predicted outcome, no tossups:

R+3. As you can see, I'm not feeling good about Arizona AT ALL. IF Flake steps aside and someone else (other than Ward) is the nominee, I can see it holding, but I really think Flake isn't electable anymore., he's really destroyed himself and has made enemies with just about everyone else. In Ohio, I have lost confidence in Mandel given how the last 2 weeks went, and, as much as I despise Brown, back to Tossup/Tilt D it goes. Bold prediction: FL votes to the right of AZ. It will be all about turning out and inspiring the bases. Flake will not, Scott will.

[_]

My updated prediction.

Predicted outcome, no tossups:

R+3. As you can see, I'm not feeling good about Arizona AT ALL. IF Flake steps aside and someone else (other than Ward) is the nominee, I can see it holding, but I really think Flake isn't electable anymore., he's really destroyed himself and has made enemies with just about everyone else. In Ohio, I have lost confidence in Mandel given how the last 2 weeks went, and, as much as I despise Brown, back to Tossup/Tilt D it goes. Bold prediction: FL votes to the right of AZ. It will be all about turning out and inspiring the bases. Flake will not, Scott will.

Why do you have PA as Lean D, and why is WI Likely D?  Would WI change if Hovde or Vukmir got in?  Also you really believe Kid Rock makes it tossup in MI?

[Heisenberg]

Why do you have PA as Lean D, and why is WI Likely D?  Would WI change if Hovde or Vukmir got in?  Also you really believe Kid Rock makes it tossup in MI?

Pennsylvania: The real battle will be in southeast part of the state, since Casey and Barletta really cancel out each other's "bases" quite well (Northeast PA). Erie County (2016's best bellwether in PA) is another one to watch. I'd say Casey is favored right now, but Barletta definitely has a path forward.

Wisconsin: Hovde, Fitzgerald, (or Kleefisch or Duffy if they pulled a Gardner) would move Wisconsin to the right. Hovde seems like the best, the other three I said may be able to hitch on to Walker and narrowly win, but it'll be tougher since Hovde has the "Johnson/Trump" factor in him (outsider businessman). What exactly is so great about Vukmir? I never got her statewide appeal? She strikes me as tailor made for the WOW area/Milwaukee suburbs. I can see her run for and win WI-05 whenever Sensenbrenner hangs it up (which may not be a while), but she probably underperforms in the western part of the state. Keep in mind that WI-03 and WI-07 are VERY elastic, and have a long progressive, populist, and even pacifist tradition (they have changed a little, but still). The WI-05/WI-06 playbook does not work in WI-03 and WI-07. Nicholson, who seems like a Tom Cotton-type, would probably be toxic. I don't know too much about Vukmir, but she seems too anonymous to really hitch on to Walker, and also, has't she underperformed in her deep red State Senate district? I think Vukmir is a paper tiger.
 
Kid Rock could win by 2 (or a little more), or lose by 20 (or a little more). No in between. He has a path to victory, something most "generic Republicans" don't have. He has been doing well in early polls, which may mean nothing, but tossup until further notice, I have to wait and see.

[_]

Why do you have PA as Lean D, and why is WI Likely D?  Would WI change if Hovde or Vukmir got in?  Also you really believe Kid Rock makes it tossup in MI?

Pennsylvania: The real battle will be in southeast part of the state, since Casey and Barletta really cancel out each other's "bases" quite well (Northeast PA). Erie County (2016's best bellwether in PA) is another one to watch. I'd say Casey is favored right now, but Barletta definitely has a path forward.

Wisconsin: Hovde, Fitzgerald, (or Kleefisch or Duffy if they pulled a Gardner) would move Wisconsin to the right. Hovde seems like the best, the other three I said may be able to hitch on to Walker and narrowly win, but it'll be tougher since Hovde has the "Johnson/Trump" factor in him (outsider businessman). What exactly is so great about Vukmir? I never got her statewide appeal? She strikes me as tailor made for the WOW area/Milwaukee suburbs. I can see her run for and win WI-05 whenever Sensenbrenner hangs it up (which may not be a while), but she probably underperforms in the western part of the state. Keep in mind that WI-03 and WI-07 are VERY elastic, and have a long progressive, populist, and even pacifist tradition (they have changed a little, but still). The WI-05/WI-06 playbook does not work in WI-03 and WI-07. Nicholson, who seems like a Tom Cotton-type, would probably be toxic. I don't know too much about Vukmir, but she seems too anonymous to really hitch on to Walker, and also, has't she underperformed in her deep red State Senate district? I think Vukmir is a paper tiger.
 
Kid Rock could win by 2 (or a little more), or lose by 20 (or a little more). No in between. He has a path to victory, something most "generic Republicans" don't have. He has been doing well in early polls, which may mean nothing, but tossup until further notice, I have to wait and see.

Alright, one last question, Barletta should clear the primary rather well yes?

[Heisenberg]

Alright, one last question, Barletta should clear the primary rather well yes?

Probably. There are four others (semmingly) serious Republicans running, here's a little rundown of what I've picked up:
Rick Saccone: State Rep. from the Pittsburgh area. He's one out of 203(!) in the State House, so his constituency is tiny, and he's not well known to the voter-rich eastern parts of the state. From a Trumpy area, but it's an area that's losing population relative to the state, and therefore also losing influence. Generic R, I guess, will probably just drop down and run for reelection instead. The next two options up, State Senate and US House, both have GOP incumbents running again, so he'll probably just wait.
Jim Christiana: See above.
Jeff Bartos: He's trying to strike a Trumpy tone, it seems, borrowing a few liens (such as "our jobs are disappearing," "end destructive trade deals" and "secure our borders," as well as emphasizing his business background. He will have to explain his past support for Kerry, Obama, and the DSCC to voters, though, if he wants to be serious.
Paul Addis: Another mavericky businessman who touts his outsider business background, but his similarities with Trump and Bartos stop there. He's been openly critical of Trump for the most part, so he'll have a base with #NeverTrumpers.

I think Saccone, Christiana, and Bartos will all drop out soon and endorse Barletta, he's way stronger and all four seem like their bases would overlap. Addis, I'm not so sure, but if he does I think Barletta will win due to his name recognition, connections to donors, and he'll probably get endorsements groups like the NRA and NRLC pretty soon. Personally, I hope one of the others (probably Bartos or Addis, due to their profile) runs for Governor instead. I'm not too impressed with Scott Wagner and no other big candidate has stepped in yet.

[_]

Alright, one last question, Barletta should clear the primary rather well yes?

Probably. There are four others (semmingly) serious Republicans running, here's a little rundown of what I've picked up:
Rick Saccone: State Rep. from the Pittsburgh area. He's one out of 203(!) in the State House, so his constituency is tiny, and he's not well known to the voter-rich eastern parts of the state. From a Trumpy area, but it's an area that's losing population relative to the state, and therefore also losing influence. Generic R, I guess, will probably just drop down and run for reelection instead. The next two options up, State Senate and US House, both have GOP incumbents running again, so he'll probably just wait.
Jim Christiana: See above.
Jeff Bartos: He's trying to strike a Trumpy tone, it seems, borrowing a few liens (such as "our jobs are disappearing," "end destructive trade deals" and "secure our borders," as well as emphasizing his business background. He will have to explain his past support for Kerry, Obama, and the DSCC to voters, though, if he wants to be serious.
Paul Addis: Another mavericky businessman who touts his outsider business background, but his similarities with Trump and Bartos stop there. He's been openly critical of Trump for the most part, so he'll have a base with #NeverTrumpers.

I think Saccone, Christiana, and Bartos will all drop out soon and endorse Barletta, he's way stronger and all four seem like their bases would overlap. Addis, I'm not so sure, but if he does I think Barletta will win due to his name recognition, connections to donors, and he'll probably get endorsements groups like the NRA and NRLC pretty soon. Personally, I hope one of the others (probably Bartos or Addis, due to their profile) runs for Governor instead. I'm not too impressed with Scott Wagner and no other big candidate has stepped in yet.

Alright, and I tend to agree with you on Wagner, i'd like someone else (please god can Dent run), could Turzai possibly be a good candidate?

[Heisenberg]

Alright, and I tend to agree with you on Wagner, i'd like someone else (please god can Dent run), could Turzai possibly be a good candidate?

Dent would get absolutely crushed. The guy called his own party stupid for their stance on abortion. If he somehow won the nomination, the base would stay home or vote for a Third Party right wing candidate.

Totally agree, especially the bolded part. I think Dent would lose to Wagner in the primary for sure. This whole Atlas meme of super moderate candidates being invincible is so overrated. They really don't understand the electorate.

[_]

Alright, and I tend to agree with you on Wagner, i'd like someone else (please god can Dent run), could Turzai possibly be a good candidate?

Dent would get absolutely crushed. The guy called his own party stupid for their stance on abortion. If he somehow won the nomination, the base would stay home or vote for a Third Party right wing candidate.

Totally agree, especially the bolded part. I think Dent would lose to Wagner in the primary for sure. This whole Atlas meme of super moderate candidates being invincible is so overrated. They really don't understand the electorate.

Well I didn't know he did that, that'd kill him in the primary and GE.  So who would be a better candidate than Wagner?

[MillennialModerate]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

[_]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

[Heisenberg]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

I would definitely swap ND and MO.
To answer your question about who should run for Governor, I think either Mike Turzai or Jake Corman would be good.

[_]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

I would definitely swap ND and MO.
To answer your question about who should run for Governor, I think either Mike Turzai or Jake Corman would be good.

Thank you for that answer.

[MillennialModerate]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

North Dakota is one of the Reddest states in the Nation and this seat was won 50.2 to 49.3 and that was in a Democratic Presidential year... Missouri is a Lean R but not definite R. You have Urban centers of STL & KC... ND is 100% going R, Missouri is tossup IMO

[TheSaint250]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

North Dakota is one of the Reddest states in the Nation and this seat was won 50.2 to 49.3 and that was in a Democratic Presidential year... Missouri is a Lean R but not definite R. You have Urban centers of STL & KC... ND is 100% going R, Missouri is tossup IMO

Heitkamp has ~60% approval and the GOP slate doesn't consist of too many decent candidates. Heitkamp has a better chance than McCaskill of surviving.

[_]

Just swap ND for MO and that's a good prediction, ND is at least Lean D.

[_]

As of 8/17/17

[Lord Admirale]

As of 8/17/17

I'd say Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Florida are at least tilt-D.

[_]

As of 8/17/17

I'd say Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Florida are at least tilt-D.

Fair.

[MarkD]

Oh, good gravy!
First of all, NC is not scheduled to have a Senate election any time in the next 1.25 years.
Secondly, you sure are over-confident. You're predicting a net of +12 R?!? You're predicting that in Jan. 2019 there will be 64 Republicans in the Senate?!? I can understand an AtlasBlue poster being confident about keeping NV and AZ in the GOP column, and about winning most of the Toss-up or Lean D states, but you're even predicting a GOP win in one of the Safe D states (NM).

Oh well. Everyone's got an opinion, even when some of them are pretty wild.

Here's my prediction for the Senate races.
I also predict the GOP will keep NV and AZ, and they will most likely pick up MO, MT, and IN (assuming that the GOP does not kill itself with a nasty primary fight between Rokita and Messer). Out of these races: FL, ND, OH, PA, and WV -- all of them I would rank now as "Lean D," but probably four incumbents will win, and one won't, but I don't know which one to predict will lose. The rest of the Democratic seats will stay Democratic. In my opinion, MI and WI are just as "Likely D" as are VA and NJ. So I think the net change will just be +4.

[Don Vito Corleone]

I think the final Map will look like this

>80=Hold
>50=Gain

Republicans pick up IN and MO
Democrats pick up NV and AZ

No Net change in Party standings

[100% pro-life no matter what]

DEM Pickups: NV
GOP Pickups: MO, IN, ND, OH, WV, MT, WI

Net: R+6 (58-42 GOP)

I really want 60 seats, and the map realistically should get us there except for the potentially unfavorable climate.  Florida and Wisconsin should be very, very close, either way.

Also, Flake goes down to Ward in a primary, but Ward beats Sinema in the general (Sinema is easily more radical than Ward, by the way).

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

DEM Pickups: NV
GOP Pickups: MO, IN, ND, OH, WV, MT, WI

Net: R+6 (58-42 GOP)

I really want 60 seats, and the map realistically should get us there except for the potentially unfavorable climate.  Florida and Wisconsin should be very, very close, either way.

Also, Flake goes down to Ward in a primary, but Ward beats Sinema in the general (Sinema is easily more radical than Ward, by the way).

Sinema is one of the most moderate democrats. She's literally a blue dog.