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  2018 Senatorial Elections
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IceSpear
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« Reply #25 on: August 09, 2016, 02:10:53 am »

Got it. I mean, sure, 2006 was a landslide for Democrats and Pryor didn't have a GOP opponent, but who needs all the facts when you can cherry pick them?

It was 2008 not 2006, and he didn't have a GOP opponent because they knew he was safe, not because they decided to throw away a winnable seat for funsies. And you're cherrypicking facts as well. Where was the mention of WV Republicans sweeping the legislature when nobody expected them to take both chambers in 2014?

And here's one during a GOP wave, which is irrelevant anyway since gubernatorial races are inherently less partisan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkansas_gubernatorial_election,_2010

Again, there's really no point in arguing this. Feel free to bookmark this thread and come back to it in 2 years to gloat if you're so sure I'm incorrect. I'll do the same. Smiley
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #26 on: August 09, 2016, 02:12:15 am »

Speaking of Arkansas 2014:
Even if he loses by 10 points it still wouldn't be a Blanching, considering she lost by like 23 points or something ridiculous.
[Pryor+2] is unreliable. But Harper, Vox Populi, and Larry Hogan's internals are proof of the incoming GOP landslide. #hack

It's a good thing Pryor outperformed Blanche Lincoln by 3%.

You're really good at calling in the midterms now solid R states that voted Democratic until 2000, aren't you?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #27 on: August 09, 2016, 02:25:07 am »

Speaking of Arkansas 2014:
Even if he loses by 10 points it still wouldn't be a Blanching, considering she lost by like 23 points or something ridiculous.
[Pryor+2] is unreliable. But Harper, Vox Populi, and Larry Hogan's internals are proof of the incoming GOP landslide. #hack

It's a good thing Pryor outperformed Blanche Lincoln by 3%.

You're really good at calling in the midterms now solid R states that voted Democratic until 2000, aren't you?

I genuinely have no idea what you're trying to prove here. Did you just randomly go into my post history and pluck those out with zero context? LOL. The first post was referring to a hypothetical, and earlier in that same thread I said Pryor was doomed (in fact, I always thought he was going to lose, I just wasn't sure of the margin.) The second post was obviously a joke about how certain hacks believed pro-Republican outliers but not pro-Democratic outliers. That in no way implies I believed the latter.  In fact, here's a great example of that:

New Poll: Arkansas Governor by Other Source on 2014-11-01

Summary: D: 43%, R: 39%, I: 5%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

We're really including this in the database? I think that's pretty dumb. I mean, Pryor is clearly doomed, but our final map is gonna show it as a "toss up"?

So yeah, you might want to work on your reading comprehension before you attempt another "gotcha!"

By the way, even if I did think Pryor was going to win, then that would mean I simply learned from my mistake, something many Atlas posters seem incapable of doing.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #28 on: August 09, 2016, 10:50:15 am »

You overestimated Pryor by ten points with a week left.

Let's not kid ourselves. 2018 is essentially a combination of guesses, recent political trends, and recent experience. That's because we are two years out.

My only point is this: your 2014 predictions were pretty off, and let's not try to pretend we know what will happen in 2018.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #29 on: August 09, 2016, 05:24:13 pm »

You overestimated Pryor by ten points with a week left.

Let's not kid ourselves. 2018 is essentially a combination of guesses, recent political trends, and recent experience. That's because we are two years out.

My only point is this: your 2014 predictions were pretty off, and let's not try to pretend we know what will happen in 2018.

I don't recall ever predicting how much Pryor would lose by. I had no idea. That post you quoted was referring to a hypothetical situation (if he did lose by 10, it wouldn't be a Blanching since a Blanching is a 20+ point loss. That was my point.) I wasn't predicting he'd lose by 10. And even if I did it makes no difference. It's not like I said Pryor would DEFINITELY lose by <insert whatever margin> with 100% certainty. It would've just been a random guess which people make here all the time. I'm sure I could very easily find a few dumb guesses you made if I decided to scour your posting history.

There's a pretty big difference between randomly guessing something and making a prediction with 100% certainty. Just as I said with 100% certainty that Hillary was inevitable in the primary which caused me to take a lot of heat here over the past 2 years, I will say with 100% certainty that Manchin will either retire or be Blanched. Time will tell which of us is correct. If Manchin is re-elected, then you'll get the last laugh. Wink

As for my 2014 predictions, considering I predicted Republicans would take the Senate, I wouldn't say they were bad. If you mean I underestimated the size of the GOP wave, sure, I'll take the heat for that one, along with nearly every other poll watcher/political pundit in 2014.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: August 09, 2016, 05:29:27 pm »

IceSpear is absolutely right, though. The idea that Manchin can get reelected in what will be the most anti-Clinton state is really cute. Lincoln Chafee lost in RI in 2006 despite having a 60%+ approval rating. Manchin's approval ratings will be way worse on election day. If the Republicans nominate a strong candidate like David McKinley, he's going to get Blanched.

Yeah. And he's not even popular. The latest poll has him with a 41-42 approval rating. And that's before any attack ads! IIRC, Pryor and Landrieu actually had very strong approval ratings before the attack ads, and then they collapsed. Manchin's is already mediocre. Not to mention the fact that even if Trump wins and is a complete disaster, WV is one of the few states where he'll probably stay somewhat popular, so it really is a no win situation for Manchin.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #31 on: August 09, 2016, 08:47:45 pm »

IceSpear is absolutely right, though. The idea that Manchin can get reelected in what will be the most anti-Clinton state is really cute. Lincoln Chafee lost in RI in 2006 despite having a 60%+ approval rating. Manchin's approval ratings will be way worse on election day. If the Republicans nominate a strong candidate like David McKinley, he's going to get Blanched.
I'm sure Manchin will be very afraid of an uncharismatic seventy-one year old.
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« Reply #32 on: August 10, 2016, 02:50:53 pm »

Assuming a Clinton Presidency:
Arizona: Likely R (Safe if Flake can get through the primary)
California: Safe D (assuming Feinstein is a lifer and runs again; Likely without her)
Connecticut: Safe D (unfortunately, Murphy is a big HP)
Delaware: Safe D (in an open-seat and wave, I could see this within single digits, but it's still Safe)
Florida: Leans D (Tossup without Nelson; if Nelson loses reelection, it's especially bad night for Ds)
Hawaii: Safe D (I suspect Hirono is a retirement possibility but it shouldn't matter)
Indiana: Leans R (assuming they can get a competent nominee in here -- Ballard is possible?)
Maine: Safe I (self-explanatory; depicted as D on map)
Maryland: Safe D (self-explanatory)
Massachusetts: Safe D (ditto)
Michigan: Likely D (Stabenow isn't quite safe but it's hard to see her lose after the split between the Peters/Snyder races in 2014)
Minnesota: Safe D (Klobuchar is quite safe and I doubt Hillary would waste her on a SCOTUS seat)
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R (Wagner is gonna destroy McCaskill, or her appointed successor if she goes AGOTUS)
Montana: Tossup (depends on R nominee; MT bench is weak. Begich's defeat should give Tester pause, however)
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Likely R (but there'll be lots of hype here)
New Jersey: Likely D (Rs can't win here, but Menendez could conceivably lose)
New Mexico: Safe D (Udall won by 12 and this isn't getting any better for Rs)
New York: Safe D (haha)
North Dakota: Leans R (god, I hope it's not Cramer)
Ohio: Tossup (if Brown wins, it's a good night for Dems. In 2010/2014 environment, Mandel should be pretty comfortable winner)
Pennsylvania: Tossup (depending on nominee, very wide range of possibilities here)
Rhode Island: Safe D (obvi)
Tennessee: Safe R (...)
Texas: Safe R (doesn't mean this won't be highly entertaining, of course)
Utah: Safe R (interesting to see how the primary goes here)
Vermont: Safe I/D (safe Bernie, but if he's done, Safe D)
Virginia: Tossup (depends on Nov 2017 election; if Rs win this goes to Likely R. Paging Barbara)
Washington: Safe D (Cantwell is surprisingly young and is going to be around for a while)
West Virginia: Tossup (considering Rahall got crushed but Justice is winning by double-digits, who the hell knows)
Wisconsin: Tossup (could see this as a Shaheen race that stays D even in a horrible night though; Baldwin has skills and I think Duffy is very overrated)
Wyoming: Safe R (lol)

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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: August 10, 2016, 03:32:37 pm »

West Virginia: Tossup (considering Rahall got crushed but Justice is winning by double-digits, who the hell knows)

Justice will lose.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #34 on: August 10, 2016, 07:21:44 pm »

I really hope McCaskill runs for reelection so that... a) this will be an easy Republican pickup and b) she finally gets the humiliation she deserves. But my guess is that she will probably retire.

And yeah, I mostly agree with Vosem's ratings, although I would move FL and ND to Tossup. I don't think Casey is necessarily weaker than Nelson and Heitkamp is not to be underestimated.
Totally agree on both parts. Small states (like ND) are where "retail politics" work. I'm scared Heitkamp becomes a lifer, 2018 is the best chance to defeat her. I would love to see lucky Claire run for reelection and get crushed, but I have heard rumors that she may not run.
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Spenstar
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« Reply #35 on: October 16, 2016, 06:03:24 pm »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 01:42:58 pm by Zombie Spenstar »

Assuming a Clinton Presidency, there are three different tiers of Senate Races in 2018.

Tier 1 are Red State Dems who the GOP has the best shot of beating. West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota. If I had to list their vulnerability, I'd do it in this order:

  • Manchin, because West Virginia. (I'm slightly more optimistic than IceSpear, but juuust barely)
  • Heitkamp, because of ND's rightward pull in the past few years.
  • McCaskill. She's a talented politician and a moderate, but she's in a red state and barely won n 2006 and got a lucky break in 2012.
  • Donnelly. Close call between him and McCaskill over who's more vulnerable, but I put Donnelly here because Indiana likes its split tickets more than other states.
  • Montana. The MT Dems are a fine institution, certainly better than other red state Dem parties. Tester's still vulnerable, but not as much so as the four Senators above him.

After that is Tier 2, consisting of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Wisconsin. IIRC, (leaving out Maine) all of these Democratic Senators outperformed Obama, but they're still swing-state Dem Senators who would be prime pickup targets if not for Tier 1. They're probably relieved most of the fighting is going to be in Tier 1, which would leave little GOP resources for these states. They probably stay Dem if the midterm is a normal election year, but could flip GOP in a bloodbath.

Except Virginia. Warner survived 2014, as long as Kaine's replacement is decent they'll be okay. (Virginia would actually be the least safe of the Tier 2 states for Dems, alongside maybe Wisconsin, because the other Tier 2 states have 2-term Dem Senators)
Maine only flips if it's a divided 3-way race, and even then, King is probably fine.

There's also Tier 3: Arizona, Nevada, and Texas. Arizona was close in 2012, and Carmona ran ahead of Obama. Heller outran Romney in 2012, but Nevada's also known for the Reid Machine so maybe the Dems can mount a comeback here. A win in either state could offset a loss in a Tier 1 State and keep the GOP Majority narrow. But, well, these states are more then likely not going to flip.

Texas is only here because Democrats, and Lindsey Graham, salivate over the possibility of unseating Ted Cruz.

Edit: Going to make six different predictions based on these tiers. The new Senates would be based on a 2016 election that went as 538's Polls-Plus forecast characterised it on 10/17/2016, so D+5, 51/49.

1: Republican Bloodbath. GOP Pickups in every Tier 1 and 2 state: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Wisconsin. King doesn't even have to lose, he just has to change the party he caucuses with. That would be R + 11, enough to turn a 51 seat Dem Majority into a 60 seat, Fillibuster-Proof, Republican majority.

2. Republican Mauling. GOP Pickups in every Tier 1 state, and the Tier 2 states with 1st Term Dems: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin, and possibly Maine.  R + 8, resulting in a 57/43 GOP majority.

3. Republican Gut Punch. GOP Pickups in every Tier 1 State, but only in Tier 1 States: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota. R + 5. The resulting Senate would be a 54/46 GOP Majority, exactly where we are now.

4. Republican Flesh Wound. GOP Pickups only in the most vulnerable Tier 1 States: West Virginia, North Dakota, and one of Indiana or Missouri. R + 3, new Senate would be a 52/48 GOP Majority, and an RSCC Chair would probably be out of a job.

5. Republican Laughingstock. GOP Pickup in only one of West Virginia or North Dakota, Democratic Pickup in one of Nevada or Arizona. +0, 51/49 Senate again, everybody laughs at the GOP.

6. Democratic Wet Dream. No GOP Pickups. Democratic Pickups in Arizona, Nevada, and possibly Texas. New Senate would be a 54/46 Democratic Majority that lasts until the alarm wakes Chuck Schumer up in the morning.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2016, 01:07:34 pm »

^Virginia will probably have a 2017 special, and it remains to be seen if McAuliffe will appoint a placeholder or someone who will actually try to hold the seat. And Democrats aren't good at winning off-off year elections in any case, 2013 was just a lucky break due to the shutdown and would have gone the other way if the election was held a week later due to Obamacare. Plus Warner's 2014 victory is actually bad news for Dems because of the margin, he was supposed to win by double digits but nearly lost. Had R's been aware of just how close Gillespie was and spent money on GOTV, they would have won. But everyone believed right up until an hour after polls closed that Warner was going to get a YUGE landslide even as the rest of the country voted for republicans. Virginia is a pure Toss-Up.
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Spenstar
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« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2016, 01:29:12 pm »

^Virginia will probably have a 2017 special, and it remains to be seen if McAuliffe will appoint a placeholder or someone who will actually try to hold the seat. And Democrats aren't good at winning off-off year elections in any case, 2013 was just a lucky break due to the shutdown and would have gone the other way if the election was held a week later due to Obamacare. Plus Warner's 2014 victory is actually bad news for Dems because of the margin, he was supposed to win by double digits but nearly lost. Had R's been aware of just how close Gillespie was and spent money on GOTV, they would have won. But everyone believed right up until an hour after polls closed that Warner was going to get a YUGE landslide even as the rest of the country voted for republicans. Virginia is a pure Toss-Up.

Assuming you're right, that puts Virginia in the middle or upper half of Tier 2 rather the the bottom. As for Warner, he survived even when the Dems overestimated his chanced big time. They'll learn from that and actually invest in VA in 2018. Still not safe, but also nowhere near what I'm calling Tier 1.

As for Maine though, what about the possibility of King being re-elected but changing his caucus? He went with the Dems in 2012 because they had a clear majority, I can imagine McConnell trying to convince King to join them if they already have a clear majority. He could also be the deciding vote in a Senate that was 48 Dems, 50 Republicans, him, and Sanders.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2016, 04:37:15 pm »

^Virginia will probably have a 2017 special, and it remains to be seen if McAuliffe will appoint a placeholder or someone who will actually try to hold the seat. And Democrats aren't good at winning off-off year elections in any case, 2013 was just a lucky break due to the shutdown and would have gone the other way if the election was held a week later due to Obamacare. Plus Warner's 2014 victory is actually bad news for Dems because of the margin, he was supposed to win by double digits but nearly lost. Had R's been aware of just how close Gillespie was and spent money on GOTV, they would have won. But everyone believed right up until an hour after polls closed that Warner was going to get a YUGE landslide even as the rest of the country voted for republicans. Virginia is a pure Toss-Up.

Assuming you're right, that puts Virginia in the middle or upper half of Tier 2 rather the the bottom. As for Warner, he survived even when the Dems overestimated his chanced big time. They'll learn from that and actually invest in VA in 2018. Still not safe, but also nowhere near what I'm calling Tier 1.

As for Maine though, what about the possibility of King being re-elected but changing his caucus? He went with the Dems in 2012 because they had a clear majority, I can imagine McConnell trying to convince King to join them if they already have a clear majority. He could also be the deciding vote in a Senate that was 48 Dems, 50 Republicans, him, and Sanders.

King is only going to switch if he's offered a committee chairmanship or something, and I'm not sure if R's want to do that. He does support ObamaCare, which is a huge negative for R's.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #39 on: October 17, 2016, 10:03:14 pm »

Because I'm an optimist, and plus it's way too early to know what turnout will be like and what the mood of the country will be:



But seriously, I know TNVol is foaming at the mouth at the possibility of getting rid of a liberal pro-choice women in a red state, but I really don't think McCaskill would go down easily. She's not a total lightweight like Blanche Lincoln like you want her to be.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #40 on: October 18, 2016, 12:05:19 am »

Because I'm an optimist, and plus it's way too early to know what turnout will be like and what the mood of the country will be:



But seriously, I know TNVol is foaming at the mouth at the possibility of getting rid of a liberal pro-choice women in a red state, but I really don't think McCaskill would go down easily. She's not a total lightweight like Blanche Lincoln like you want her to be.
It should be noted the GOP can still f**k up...big time.

You guys do realize Trump isn't going away? Which means you're going to have to find people who placate three factions in the party (Establishment, Conservatives, and Trumpers) or risk losing support from one group.  Trumpers are especially prone to saying dumb sh*t. There's a lot of opportunity for Republicans, but it could also go horribly wrong.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #41 on: October 18, 2016, 11:28:14 am »

Because I'm an optimist, and plus it's way too early to know what turnout will be like and what the mood of the country will be:



But seriously, I know TNVol is foaming at the mouth at the possibility of getting rid of a liberal pro-choice women in a red state, but I really don't think McCaskill would go down easily. She's not a total lightweight like Blanche Lincoln like you want her to be.
It should be noted the GOP can still f**k up...big time.

You guys do realize Trump isn't going away? Which means you're going to have to find people who placate three factions in the party (Establishment, Conservatives, and Trumpers) or risk losing support from one group.  Trumpers are especially prone to saying dumb sh*t. There's a lot of opportunity for Republicans, but it could also go horribly wrong.

Trumpers stayed silent before Trump and will do so after Trump.
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mencken
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« Reply #42 on: October 18, 2016, 06:54:24 pm »

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Spenstar
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« Reply #43 on: October 18, 2016, 07:03:37 pm »



2 things: one, what's the deal with Ohio? And two, that map made me realize the position Nevada is in. For two cycles in a row it will be the one pickup opportunity for a party otherwise defending a ton of seats
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mencken
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« Reply #44 on: October 18, 2016, 08:14:59 pm »



2 things: one, what's the deal with Ohio? And two, that map made me realize the position Nevada is in. For two cycles in a row it will be the one pickup opportunity for a party otherwise defending a ton of seats

I was extrapolating Ohio's R trend in this election to predict how it would behave in a Hillary midterm.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #45 on: October 18, 2016, 11:10:47 pm »



2 things: one, what's the deal with Ohio? And two, that map made me realize the position Nevada is in. For two cycles in a row it will be the one pickup opportunity for a party otherwise defending a ton of seats

I was extrapolating Ohio's R trend in this election to predict how it would behave in a Hillary midterm.
And Brown legislates like he represents a D+15 state when he represents an R+1 state. There are plenty of good, (relatively) moderate Republicans who can take him out. Word is that Kasich and friends are rallying behind Rep. Pat Tiberi.
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« Reply #46 on: October 19, 2016, 06:05:34 am »



2 things: one, what's the deal with Ohio? And two, that map made me realize the position Nevada is in. For two cycles in a row it will be the one pickup opportunity for a party otherwise defending a ton of seats

I was extrapolating Ohio's R trend in this election to predict how it would behave in a Hillary midterm.
And Brown legislates like he represents a D+15 state when he represents an R+1 state. There are plenty of good, (relatively) moderate Republicans who can take him out. Word is that Kasich and friends are rallying behind Rep. Pat Tiberi.

On the other hand, his approvals are pretty good right now
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #47 on: October 19, 2016, 05:42:57 pm »

Brown is an extremely savvy politician. He got elected to the State House at age 22, making him the youngest State Rep. in Ohio history. 2018 may be rough, but Atlasians are seriously underestimating Brown. He's popular and he works pretty well with Republicans, truth be told.

I was at his non-partisan Collegiate Leadership Summit at the University of Dayton last Friday, and he and Bob Taft have surprisingly great chemistry. Yes, Republicans will want to see him go, but he does a good job of connecting with everyday Ohioans. He's very good at framing the issues around doing what's right for working people, and not typical liberal-conservative squabling.
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« Reply #48 on: October 28, 2016, 07:42:40 pm »

I think Massachusetts would be a toss up if Willam Weld runs. A hypothetical poll from this year showed Weld only 3 points behind Warren. 
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« Reply #49 on: October 29, 2016, 07:48:48 am »

I think Massachusetts would be a toss up if Willam Weld runs. A hypothetical poll from this year showed Weld only 3 points behind Warren. 

Not likely. She has a 61% favorable rating in Massachusetts.
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