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Author Topic: 2018 Senatorial Elections  (Read 61275 times)
respect mah majoritah!
SlippingJimmy
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« Reply #250 on: October 31, 2017, 06:24:45 pm »



GOP: 56 (+4)
DEM: 44 (-4)

Seat Changes (bold denotes party change)
AL: Luther Strange (R-Cool Name) --> Roy Moore (R-Jeebus)
AZ: Jeff Flake (R-Out of Touch, Also Mormon) --> Matt Salmon (R-eplacement Mormon, Not Out of Touch)
AZ (S): John McCain (R-IP) --> Martha McSally (R-McCain≤)
CA: Diane Feinstein (D-Assisted Living) --> Kevin de Leůn (D-#resist)
IN: Joe Donnelly (D-esperate) --> Luke Messer (R-Not Rokita)
MO: Air Claire (D-oomed) --> Josh Hawley (R-ising Star)
MT: Jon Testes (D-???) --> Matt Rosendale (R-Insurance)
NV: Dean Heller (R-Mormon) --> Jacky Rosen (D-Fresh)
NJ: Bob Menendez (D-Jail) --> Donald Norcross (D-La Cosa Norcross)
ND: Hidey Hidekamp (D-A Good Woman) --> Tom Campbell (R-Ad Boobs)
PA: Bob Casey (D-Not Pro-Choice) --> Lou Barletta (R-ProtoTrump)
TN: Bob Corker (R-Liddle) --> Marsha Blackburn (R-Anti Twitter)
UT: Orrin Hatch (R-Doom 2) --> MITT ROMNEY! (R-Javelin)

Selected Other Races
MI: Debbie Stabmenow (D-Incumbent) def. Kate Upton's Uncle (R-Up or Out)
WI: Tammy Baldwin (D-Gay) def. Leah Vukmir (R-Registered Nurse, Probable Soccer Mom)
TX: Ted Cruz (R-Porn) def. Beto O'Rourke (D-TITANIUM D TEXAS)
MA: Walking Eagle (D-Too Full of S**t to Fly, Fake Indian) def. Shiva Ayyadurai (R-eal Indian)
VA: Tim Kaine (D-Soccer Dad) def. Corey Stewart (R-Self Hating Yankee)
FL: Bill Nelson (D-Spaceman) def. Rick Scott (R-Voldemort)
OH: Sherrod Brown (D-Populist) def. Josh Mandel (R-Ugly)
MN: Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota Nice, Future President) def. Jim Newberger (R-Nobody)
WV: Joe Manchin (D-Blue Dog) def. Patrick Morrisey (R-New Jersey)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 07:29:37 pm by EDWARD W. GILLESPIE »Logged
Pericles
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« Reply #251 on: November 02, 2017, 09:15:03 pm »

2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 52_ 41.0%
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 46_ 53.7%
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 08:32:40 pm by Pericles »Logged
Ninja0428
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« Reply #252 on: November 03, 2017, 04:37:14 pm »



D-51 (I-2)(+3)
R-49 (-3)
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 05:06:18 pm by Ninja0428 »Logged
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« Reply #253 on: November 03, 2017, 04:48:12 pm »



D-51 (I-2)(+2)
R-49 (-2)

Very bold prediction, but I don't see this happening.
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Ninja0428
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« Reply #254 on: November 03, 2017, 05:09:09 pm »



D-51 (I-2)(+3)
R-49 (-3)

Very bold prediction, but I don't see this happening.
It's possible. Ted Cruz's approval ratings are abysmal, Krysten Sinema leads Kelli Ward, and Heller is an unfavorably viewed republican in a state that's trending D.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #255 on: November 05, 2017, 03:13:48 pm »



D - 48 (+0), R - 52 (+0)

>30% = Tilt D/R
>50% = Lean D/R
>70% = Likely D/R
>90% = Safe D/R


Safe D:
  • California
  • Connecticut
  • Maryland
  • Delaware
  • Washington
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • Hawaii
  • Minnesota
  • Massachusetts
  • Rhode Island
  • Maine
  • Vermont

Likely D:
  • Michigan
  • Virginia
  • New Jersey

Lean D:
  • Montana
  • West Virginia
  • Florida
  • Wisconsin
  • North Dakota
  • Pennsylvania

Tilt D:
  • Nevada
  • Arizona
  • Ohio

Tilt R:
  • Missouri
  • Indiana

Likely R:
  • Alabama
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Tennessee

Safe R:
  • Mississippi
  • Wyoming
  • Nebraska
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 10:32:01 pm by slightlyburnttoast »Logged
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« Reply #256 on: November 09, 2017, 06:00:41 pm »

Img


Changes:

Alabama: Likely R to Lean R
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MAGugh
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« Reply #257 on: February 19, 2018, 09:14:11 pm »

2/19/2018

Safe D - WA, CA, HI, NM, WV, VA, PA, NY, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD

Likely D - MT, MN1, MN2, WI, MI, IN, OH, FL,

Safe R - UT, WY, NE, TX, MS

Likely R - MO, TN

Tossup - NV (Pure tossup, though I'd say the GOP pulls it out. I expect Tarkanian/Rosen)

Tossup - AZ (Many interesting possible combinations here, but I think it goes blue as the youth and anti-Trump Blue Wave goes into effect. I call Arpaio vs. Sinema)

Tossup - ND (I think incumbent's advantage puts Heitkamp over the edge on road to a possible 2020 campaign)
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« Reply #258 on: February 24, 2018, 01:01:33 pm »

Safe D
WA, CA, HI, NM, MN (regular), VA, MD, DE, NY, MA, CT, RI, VT

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

Lean D
ND, IN, WV, FL, OH

Tossup
MO, AZ, UT

Lean R
TN, TX

Likely R
MS

Safe R
NE, WY, UT
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« Reply #259 on: February 24, 2018, 01:01:59 pm »

2/19/2018

Safe D - WA, CA, HI, NM, WV, VA, PA, NY, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD

Likely D - MT, MN1, MN2, WI, MI, IN, OH, FL,

Safe R - UT, WY, NE, TX, MS

Likely R - MO, TN

Tossup - NV (Pure tossup, though I'd say the GOP pulls it out. I expect Tarkanian/Rosen)

Tossup - AZ (Many interesting possible combinations here, but I think it goes blue as the youth and anti-Trump Blue Wave goes into effect. I call Arpaio vs. Sinema)

Tossup - ND (I think incumbent's advantage puts Heitkamp over the edge on road to a possible 2020 campaign)
Don't really see how MO's anything more than a tossup or tilt R.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #260 on: February 24, 2018, 03:43:19 pm »

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

If MT is Likely D, all the other states are almost certainly Safe D IMO. Tester is a pretty strong incumbent, but heís not THAT strong/popular and MT is not THAT Democratic down-ballot.
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« Reply #261 on: February 24, 2018, 03:45:19 pm »

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

If MT is Likely D, all the other states are almost certainly Safe D IMO. Tester is a pretty strong incumbent, but heís not THAT strong/popular and MT is not THAT Democratic down-ballot.
Itís just that the GOP hasnít put up too strong of a candidate, and I donít really see him losing this year, where I could see Donnelly or McCaskill, or even Heitkamp losing.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #262 on: February 24, 2018, 03:56:25 pm »

Itís just that the GOP hasnít put up too strong of a candidate, and I donít really see him losing this year, where I could see Donnelly or McCaskill, or even Heitkamp losing.

Even if you think Rosendale is a poor candidate, heís definitely more likely to win than whoever the Republicans nominate in ME or NJ (which I think are Safe D, honestly).

Granted, if he loses the primary, you could make a case for Likely D (although it would still flip before NJ or ME). And ftr, I think heíll lose by 3-5 to Tester.
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Bennet or Bust
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« Reply #263 on: May 18, 2018, 04:29:39 pm »

I've updated my ratings. Alabama is used here for the MS special election. Nothing is used for the MN special election because both MN elections are Safe D.



Here's my map from April 2017. I'm not entirely sure what I was thinking on some of my ratings.



Changes since then:
Arizona: Toss-up to Likely D
Florida: Likely D to Lean D
Indiana: Lean R to Toss-up
Michigan: Likely D to Safe D
Montana: Lean D to Likely D
Nebraska: Safe R to Likely R
Nevada: Lean D to Likely D
New Jersey: Likely D to Safe D
North Dakota: Toss-up to Lean D
Ohio: Lean D to Likely D
Pennsylvania: Likely D to Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R to Toss-up
Texas: Likely R to Lean R
West Virginia: Likely D to Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D to Safe D
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #264 on: May 21, 2018, 08:30:55 am »

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« Reply #265 on: May 30, 2018, 10:00:29 pm »

This is my first attempt at rating races, so forgive me for anything that might be out of place. Currently, I rank the states as the following:

Safe Democratic-California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Likely Democratic-Michigan, Minnesota-Special, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Lean Democratic-Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia.

Tossup-Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Lean Republican-None.

Likely Republican-Mississippi-Special, Texas.

Safe Republican-Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming.



On this map, Alabama represents MS-Special, while Georgia represents MN-Special.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2018, 11:46:37 pm by Calthrina950 »Logged
Chairman YE
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« Reply #266 on: May 30, 2018, 10:07:08 pm »

This is my first attempt at rating races, so forgive me for anything that might be out of place. Currently, I rank the states as the following:

Safe Democratic-California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Likely Democratic-Michigan, Minnesota-Special, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Lean Democratic-Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia.

Tossup-Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Lean Republican-None.

Likely Republican-Mississippi-Special, Texas.

Safe Republican-Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming.



On this map, Alabama represents MS-Special, while Georgia represents MN-Special.

You have Ohio listed as both lean and likely D but otherwise those are my exact ratings.
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« Reply #267 on: May 30, 2018, 11:46:53 pm »

This is my first attempt at rating races, so forgive me for anything that might be out of place. Currently, I rank the states as the following:

Safe Democratic-California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Likely Democratic-Michigan, Minnesota-Special, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Lean Democratic-Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia.

Tossup-Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Lean Republican-None.

Likely Republican-Mississippi-Special, Texas.

Safe Republican-Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming.



On this map, Alabama represents MS-Special, while Georgia represents MN-Special.

You have Ohio listed as both lean and likely D but otherwise those are my exact ratings.

I corrected that mistake.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #268 on: June 25, 2018, 08:49:21 pm »



D - 48 (+0), R - 52 (+0)

>30% = Tilt D/R
>50% = Lean D/R
>70% = Likely D/R
>90% = Safe D/R


Safe D:
  • California
  • Connecticut
  • Maryland
  • Delaware
  • Washington
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • Hawaii
  • Minnesota
  • Massachusetts
  • Rhode Island
  • Maine
  • Vermont

Likely D:
  • Michigan
  • Virginia
  • New Jersey

Lean D:
  • Montana
  • West Virginia
  • Florida
  • Wisconsin
  • North Dakota
  • Pennsylvania

Tilt D:
  • Nevada
  • Arizona
  • Ohio

Tilt R:
  • Missouri
  • Indiana

Likely R:
  • Alabama
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Tennessee

Safe R:
  • Mississippi
  • Wyoming
  • Nebraska


Only changes: TN, FL, and MO are now Tilt D, and UT is now Safe R.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 11:10:19 pm by slightlyburnttoast »Logged
olowakandi
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« Reply #269 on: June 25, 2018, 09:59:17 pm »

IN tilts GOP, and Dems win TN, AZ and NV
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« Reply #270 on: August 20, 2018, 12:10:51 pm »



NEW PREDICTIONS:

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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #271 on: August 22, 2018, 01:25:14 pm »

Arizona: Lean D (flip)
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Tossup
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Tossup
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Safe D
MN-special: Likely D
Mississippi: Safe R
MS-special: Likely R Hyde-Smith vs Espy +++
                      Lean D McDaniel vs Espy
Missouri: Tossup
Montana: Likely D
Nebraska: Likely R
Nevada: Tossup
New Jersey: Lean D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup
Ohio: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Tossup
Texas: Lean R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe I
Virginia: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D
Wyoming: Safe
1 flip R-D D+1

Without Tossup
Florida: Tilt R (flip)
Indiana: Tilt D
Missouri: Tilt D
Nevada: Tilt D (flip)
North Dakota: Tilt R (flip)
Tennessee: Tilt D (flip)
------------------------------------
3 flip R-D (Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee)
2 flip D-R (North Dakota, Florida)
50R---50D
 +1R Vice-President
51R---50D
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TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
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« Reply #272 on: August 24, 2018, 12:11:08 am »

Expecting the worst, and the voters will deserve every bit of it:

Rís gain IN, MO, ND, FL, WV, and MT.

Dís gain NV and maybe AZ.

And I will have zero sympathy when these states beat the brunt of their benefits being taken away
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #273 on: August 24, 2018, 03:28:22 pm »

Expecting the worst, and the voters will deserve every bit of it:

Rís gain IN, MO, ND, FL, WV, and MT.

Dís gain NV and maybe AZ.

Man, imagine the meltdown among Democrats and pundits if this happened. But yeah, this isnít really that far-fetched. I guess MT would be very close in this scenario and WV could go either way as well. Perhaps OH and WI would be surprisingly close. The funny thing about this prediction is that Democrats would probably still flip the House even as Republicans gain 5 Senate seats. When has this ever happened before?

Anyway, my current ratings:



(IA = MN-Special, AL = MS-Special)
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« Reply #274 on: August 24, 2018, 07:06:11 pm »



90%=Safe
70%=Likely
50%=Lean
30%=Tilt
Green=Tossup

Please ignore Maine and Vermont.  King and Sanders are counted as Dems for purposes of map coloring.
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