2018 Senatorial Elections
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Author Topic: 2018 Senatorial Elections  (Read 79541 times)
Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
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« Reply #75 on: February 27, 2017, 10:24:06 AM »



Using ranks because calling races at this point seems premature.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #76 on: March 04, 2017, 07:02:22 AM »

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diptheriadan
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« Reply #77 on: March 09, 2017, 09:51:36 PM »



WI, OH, WV LD
MO, IN, NV, ND and AZ tossups

Why is Nebraska a likely R state. Is it just a mis-click or is there some sort of hidden Democratic bench somewhere in the state?
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Spark
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« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2017, 11:19:21 PM »

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peterthlee
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« Reply #79 on: March 10, 2017, 11:36:13 PM »

In this scenario, MT should be tilt/lean D. Domestic politics overrule gubernatorial and senatorial elections, and Tester is a good local fit.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2017, 04:04:56 PM »

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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2017, 04:27:55 PM »

GOP gains Missouri and Indiana. They could gain North Dakota, but Heitkamp is an appealing moderate there. If a Berniecrat out-primaries Joe Manchin, that's another GOP gain (or Manchin pulls a Lieberman and runs independent). Ohio could go to the GOP if a popular enough candidate runs against Brown (John Kasich could do it easily). Florida is a bit of a stretch since Nelson has been there a fairly long time, but like Ohio, a strong enough candidate could win there.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #82 on: March 21, 2017, 08:37:01 PM »

Lean R:

-Arizona
-Nevada

Lean D:

-Florida
-Montana
-North Dakota
-Ohio
-West Virginia

Likely D:

-Virginia
-Wisconsin (just barely Likely D as of now)

Lean I:

-Maine

Tossup:

-Indiana
-Missouri


If the GOP will pick up any states, they will be Indiana and/or Missouri.  If the Democrats will pick up any seats, they will be Arizona and/or Nevada.  The way I see it, Manchin and Tester will most likely remain in their seats unless a really strong Republican ties them to national Democrats in a strategic way.  The same goes for Heitkamp.  The three of them are moderates and are at a greater position in remaining in their seats than McCaskill and Donnelly, for example (I think Donnelly is relatively moderate too, but I think Indiana would most likely vote for a Republican instead).
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #83 on: March 29, 2017, 02:04:30 PM »

If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #84 on: April 01, 2017, 06:24:21 PM »



dream map
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #85 on: April 02, 2017, 01:07:46 AM »

my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #86 on: April 02, 2017, 05:17:07 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2017, 05:18:47 PM by Da-Jon »



dream map



If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

Yes, these are rural areas aside from IN, who was the most hostile towards Clinton, Tester, Manchin and McCaskill have high approvals for incumbants

As for the GOP incumbants Flake, Heller and Cruz, the Latino corridor of IL,CA, CO, NV, NM, NY and NJ all voted for Clinton in 2016 and will be friendly again for reapportionment in 2020 eventhough, the new map won't take effect until latter.

And AZ is a Clinton friendly state. TX is a special case, but a Latino sunbelt state.
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Pericles
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« Reply #87 on: April 16, 2017, 03:48:05 AM »
« Edited: April 16, 2017, 03:54:08 AM by Pericles »

Red is Democrat, blue is Republican and green is tossup. For the purposes of this scenario, Angus King and Bernie Sanders will be ranked as Democrats.


Arizona may be more Democratic than thought not just because of its D trend but also that Kelli Ward could well be the GOP nominee(she leads in the polls over Flake and if DeWitt is running he wins). McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp are vulnerable, I'd expect at least one of them to lose, but all three have an ability to win in GOP states and their states have shown a willingness to elect Democrats. Nevada's race looks like a prime pickup for the Democrats given Hispanic opposition to Trump and that Heller only won by 1% in 2012.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2017, 03:23:01 AM »

my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
You're joking, right? Tongue
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Young Moderate Republican
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« Reply #89 on: May 07, 2017, 11:41:53 PM »

my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
You're joking, right? Tongue

This must be a joke. TX is safe R on a good day for Dems. Cruz isn't hated here, either. He's the kind of Republican that dominates here. Every statewide elected official here except for John Cornyn is as far right as Cruz.
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Lachi
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« Reply #90 on: May 18, 2017, 04:09:46 AM »

Rationale: Trump's approval ratings will be 45-48%.
lol
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #91 on: May 21, 2017, 10:05:44 AM »



dream map



This scenario is more possible now, since Trump effect will affect the races 2017 and 2018; but this is my dream map with Dems sweeping the House and Govs mansions and impeachment is underway.
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Ridge
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« Reply #92 on: May 21, 2017, 11:57:30 AM »

AZ: Ward +5
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #93 on: May 21, 2017, 03:41:05 PM »

Dems if they run a decent candidate can win a competetive race against either Ward or Flake
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #94 on: May 23, 2017, 08:44:02 PM »



In an anti Trump environment McCaskill will win
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #95 on: May 31, 2017, 04:16:38 PM »

Is Maine a gain for Dems or King being reelected?
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #96 on: June 09, 2017, 09:08:21 PM »

Apologies, but what tool are y'all using to make predictions?  I can't find it and can't even find a FAQ to help.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #97 on: June 11, 2017, 01:42:38 PM »

Assuming nothing crazy happens, (though in the age of Trump, you never know) here's what I think.



Among the safe Ds and safe Rs, there are a few I'm gonna put a question mark next to. The first is Alabama's special election in November (I know it's not a 2018 election, but I'm putting it here anyway). Some primary polls suggest that Roy Moore might become the nominee, and for anyone familiar with Alabama politics, this guy brings disaster with him everywhere. If he gets the nomination, there isn't an 100% guarantee that he'd win a general. He could become the Republican version  of Martha Coakley. Minnesota deserves a note because Trump nearly won it, but Klobuchar is quite popular. I know this sounds a bit like flawed thinking, but there's a very slight chance Cardin in Maryland isn't 100% safe. He hasn't announced he's gonna run for reelection, a popular Republican Governor (Hogan) is up for reelection, and Maryland hasn't been the kind of state that does a lot of ticket splitting. Hogan's coattails could overwhelm Cardin (or vice-versa) or another Democrat if Cardin retires.

Also, Bob Menendez has a corruption scandal going on, and is scheduled to appear in court in September, so he's not a 100% guarantee for reelection. I wish a competent Democrat would just primary him.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #98 on: June 17, 2017, 10:44:29 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2017, 02:45:15 AM by Heisenberg »

My early prediction.

Key races:
NV: Heller loses by 7 or so.
AZ: Flake holds by 5 (against whoever) in the general, wins the primary fairly comfortably.
UT: Romney and McMullin sit out, Hatch easily wins both the primary and general.
MT: Rosendale wins by 5, Olszewski by 2, anyone else (unlikely) loses by 4.
ND: Heitkamp wins by 8 against Cramer, 14 against Campbell, by 20 against Becker or Berg.
MN: Klobuchar wins by 12, as she tanks in MN-01, 06, and 07.
WI: Fitzgerald, Kleefisch or Hovde beat Baldwin by 1, any other nominee (far more likely) loses by 6.
MI: Robert Young, Randy Richardville, or Dan Benishek lose by 1 or 2, anyone else falls by 15 or more.
TX: Cruz wins by 11 or more despite all the hype.
FL: Scott pulls the unthinkable and wins by 1 after catching Nelson sleepwalking.
MO: Wagner wins by 12 (or Hawley by 4).
IN: Donnelly loses by 14 (probably more than O'Rourke) as the race is nationalized and Pence does a lot to help Messer (who'll probably win the primary).
OH: Mandel wins by 5 or 6 after easily winning the primary.
WV: Manchin loses by 11 against Jenkins (who should easily win his primary).
PA: Casey should win by 10 or so, but the GOP should get a good wave insurance candidate anyway.
NJ: Nothing to see, NJ voters don't care about corruption, they think it's no big deal.
ME: Even if RCV is struck down, King should be fine and win with room to breathe.

I'm assuming Trump's approval is -1 or 2 as Republicans "come home" and polarization remains historically high. I could very well be way off.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #99 on: June 18, 2017, 11:28:41 AM »

Okay I have not been posting as much lately because there really is not a whole lot to post right now.

The only real confident prediction that I can make at this time is that Democrats will gains seats in the House of Representatives. I can not really put a number on it but it could be as low as eight if there is not a huge backlash to Trump or as high as like 40 to 50 if voters are not feeling partisan in 2018, Trump is very unpopular and a bunch of R PVI +5 to +10 districts fall.

As far as the US Senate elections a lot of these Democratic incumbents are remnants of the past. We saw how they all fell very quickly in 2010 and 2014. Mark Pryor was a popular remnant of the past but fell by a surprisingly large margin. 2012 was a bit different for Senate Democrats even remnants of the past because of luck and the fact that a Democrat president was not assured in the minds of many people. Many voters were quite convinced Romney would win and the polls were oversampling Democrats. We saw how that went.

If anything polls underestimated Democrats that year. That is something to consider before assuming polling in 2018 will underestimate Republicans.

Now we saw how these remnants of the past went during a Democratic administration, it will be interesting to see how it goes under Donald Trump. Donald Trump is too unpopular at this present time for a repeat of 2002 to occur.  Even in 2002, Democrats did not do that bad locally and House and Senate gains were limited even with favorable redistricting for the GOP and that was the first cycle that the redistricting took place.

Also even if Trump is popular in certain states it is no guarantee that the Democratic incumbents will fall down.  Obama was popular in Illinois in 2010 and 2014 and Republicans won two major offices those years. We saw Kirk go down in a year with entirely different circumstances and it is too early to see if Rauner is DOA in the Governor's contest next year but a state's lean does not dictate how a state will vote during midterms even if the President is popular in that specific state.


Manchin thrived in West Virginia during the tea party wave and won by a large margin in 2012. His polling has shown him as popular and West Virginia Democrats to have some success statewide to this day. Even if Jenkins is from the key part of the state for Democrats to win West Virginia we can not assume that he will going to defeat Manchin. Manchin has the clear cross over appeal but he could be taken down if 2018 becomes quite a Republican year.

Heitkamp was elected while her state was very hostile to the Democratic party and has become quite popular. Only thing that could defeat her is sheer partisan.

Sherrod Brown is quite the progressive but if his opponent is Mandel I can argue that Brown would be favored to win re-election as rematches can often Falter. I have seen this happen too many times. Not sure why the gop is set on Mandel for their nominee. They probably have a dozen other candidates who could be stronger.

We argue about McCaskill a lot but I argue that I do not think it is in the cards for her to lose by more than single digits in the current climate for 2018. I could even see her winning. She seems to be doing the right things.. she is exiting the liberal base but she is not bashing Trump voters. She only criticizes GOP policies. There is a difference. Despite assertions on this site her progressive punch score is a "D".

Donnelly is very anonymous. Most voters in Indiana probably do not actively remember his name. His path to victory could be managing to create a positive image to voters now as he is so unknown to many voters. Unlike McCaskill he has that option. On the other hand if Donnelly does not invent a positive image to voters and reintroduces himself to voters he could end up losing by a 19 point margin. What would kill him is if voters go to the polls and are like "Who is this guy?" and vote Republican by default.

The rest of the races I am not very familiar with enough to comment.
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