2018 Senatorial Elections
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #100 on: June 18, 2017, 01:08:23 PM »

Ordinarily, 2018 would be a reverse of the 2006 Democratic wave.. except that the Republican President will be extremely unpopular. The only question is whether the 2018 election will be free and fair.

Democrats have no real chance of winning a majority. Even picking up Arizona and Nevada while holding what they now have,  they would get an effective 50-50 split of the Senate with the VP as the tie-breaker... unless some Republican defects from the Party or dies and creates a vulnerable seat in a state that would likely vote for a Democratic nominee for a Senate seat in a Democratic-leaning state. 

It is telling that a poll that shows Trump approval at 62% in West Virginia suggests that Joe Manchin has an excellent chance of winning re-election. Indiana and Missouri are even less supportive of Republicans.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #101 on: June 18, 2017, 01:09:43 PM »

Ordinarily, 2018 would be a reverse of the 2006 Democratic wave.. except that the Republican President will be extremely unpopular. The only question is whether the 2018 election will be free and fair.

Democrats have no real chance of winning a majority. Even picking up Arizona and Nevada while holding what they now have,  they would get an effective 50-50 split of the Senate with the VP as the tie-breaker... unless some Republican defects from the Party or dies and creates a vulnerable seat in a state that would likely vote for a Democratic nominee for a Senate seat in a Democratic-leaning state. 

It is telling that a poll that shows Trump approval at 62% in West Virginia suggests that Joe Manchin has an excellent chance of winning re-election. Indiana and Missouri are even less supportive of Republicans.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #102 on: June 21, 2017, 03:24:21 PM »


Unsurprisingly, I agree with you 100%. I know this looks like a really Republican-friendly prediction, but it's not that far-fetched. The only "bold" prediction on this map is FL.

My early prediction, including the obvious comments and #hottakes:

Democratic gains

NV (Lean D): Heller is a weak incumbent in a state trending away from his party. He only barely eked out a win in 2012 because the Democrats nominated Shelley Berkley. Heller won't get that lucky this time, and blue states really don't split their tickets anymore or care whether the Republican candidate is an incumbent or not.  D+1, Heller loses by 4 or 5 points. (If he actually distances himself from Trump like Kirk and Ayotte, expect something like a 8- to 10-point loss here.)

Republican gains

IN (Likely R): I don't see how Donnelly wins. The Republicans running here are probably a bit overrated, but given this astonishingly high level of polarization even someone like Messer should be able to win fairly easily. R+1, Donnelly loses by 12 points to Messer or something like 8-10 points to Rokita.

MO (Likely R): This race has been discussed ad nauseam, so any further comments are probably unnecessary. The only thing worth pointing out is that I believe Wagner would do much better in MO-02 and the more suburban areas in the general than Hawley, but maybe she'd do slightly worse than Hawley in the rural areas. Anyway, R+1, Wagner wins by 13 points, Hawley by 10 points. FTR, right now I believe Hawley will be the nominee.

MT (Tossup): While most Democrats think that Tester is heavily favored, I think the GOP can definitely win here. Both Rosendale and Olszewski would be fairly good candidates IMO, and I could also see Troy Downing doing well if he actually wins the nomination (doubtful, but he's kind of a wildcard). Democrats creating an aura of inevitability around Tester doesn't help them either, honestly. MT also has a fairly high Republican floor, and Eastern MT likely won't be as friendly to Tester next year as it was in 2012.  R+1, Rosendale wins by 6 and Olszewski by 4 or 5.

WV (Tossup): This race is tough to predict, and Jenkins might be a bit overrated. I think WV is a Tossup, but if Trump can get his supporters out in record numbers on election day (and I assume he'll be campaigning for Rs here), I think this seat will flip. R+1, Jenkins wins by 8 or 9 or so. (I could totally see Manchin winning as well, though)

OH (Tilt R): Brown is in big trouble, obviously. OH has an incredibly high Republican floor, especially in midterm years. Brown can win if he plays his cards right, but in the end I think some combination of Mandel doing better than expected in the Republican suburbs, crushing it in the traditionally Republican rural areas and outperforming his 2012 showing in the WWC areas by quite a bit should put him over the top. R+1, Mandel wins by 6 or 7.

FL (Tossup): Scott winning here is my bold prediction. Jimmie hinted at this already, I think Nelson is a remnant of the past and might be out of step with the times and his electorate, if you know what I mean. I know polls are showing a Nelson landslide right now, but I wouldn't underestimate Scott (especially if polling underestimates Republican support among White suburbanites and Working-class "Trumpist" voters again). R+1, Scott barely ekes it out by 1 or less. If Morgan is the Democratic nominee for governor, Scott might actually do better than if Graham wins the D primary.

Democratic holds

WI (Lean D): Baldwin is a good fit for swingy WI and isn't dumb enough to move to the center to win reelection. If she loses, it will be a sign that WI is moving away from the Democrats at a very fast pace. Unless someone like Hovde runs, I think she'll do very well in WI-03 and WI-07, and that should be enough, even if Walker wins reelection. D Hold, Baldwin wins by 4 or 5 points.

MI (Lean D): Stabenow should be fine, but like I've said several times before... 85% chance this race is a blowout and 15% chance it goes down to the wire. No in between. Right now, I assume the former will happen, but the race could get interesting if the GOP nominates the right candidate (and not just a generic conservative Republican).D Hold, Stabenow wins by 12 points.

ND (Lean D): I moved this from Likely to Lean D today. I still think Heitkamp is heavily favored to win, but you never know. Pretty sure that this seat only flips after IN, MO, MT, WV, FL, OH and maybe WI or MI, though. D Hold, Heitkamp beats Cramer by 5, Campbell by 12, Becker by 16 and Berg by 22. If she can win in 2018, this seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

PA (Likely D): Casey underperformed in 2012, but he should be fine in 2018. Pennsylvania is still fairly Democratic downballot. I agree that the GOP should put up a good wave insurance candidate, though. D Hold, Casey wins by 8 points.

ME (Likely D): King should be fine, but he will probably lose a few counties in ME-02 this time around. D Hold, King wins by 9.

Republican holds

AZ (Likely R): Flake is a bit underestimated IMO. I think he wins the primary much easier than expected and then goes on to win the general by 7 or so. Synema is - just like Kirkpatrick - way overrated (I actually think Carmona might be the strongest Democrat). R Hold.

TX (Likely R): O'Rourke will make it closer than it should be, but I think Cruz wins by 9 on election day, give or take 1 or 2 points. Things could get really ugly for Cruz in 2024, though. R Hold.

UT (Likely R): I am a bit worried about this race, but Hatch will probably be fine in the end. R Hold.

Just one question here, about WI.  I assume you're saying Hovde would be a good candidate, why exactly?
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #103 on: June 21, 2017, 04:26:21 PM »


Unsurprisingly, I agree with you 100%. I know this looks like a really Republican-friendly prediction, but it's not that far-fetched. The only "bold" prediction on this map is FL.

My early prediction, including the obvious comments and #hottakes:

Democratic gains

NV (Lean D): Heller is a weak incumbent in a state trending away from his party. He only barely eked out a win in 2012 because the Democrats nominated Shelley Berkley. Heller won't get that lucky this time, and blue states really don't split their tickets anymore or care whether the Republican candidate is an incumbent or not.  D+1, Heller loses by 4 or 5 points. (If he actually distances himself from Trump like Kirk and Ayotte, expect something like a 8- to 10-point loss here.)

Republican gains

IN (Likely R): I don't see how Donnelly wins. The Republicans running here are probably a bit overrated, but given this astonishingly high level of polarization even someone like Messer should be able to win fairly easily. R+1, Donnelly loses by 12 points to Messer or something like 8-10 points to Rokita.

MO (Likely R): This race has been discussed ad nauseam, so any further comments are probably unnecessary. The only thing worth pointing out is that I believe Wagner would do much better in MO-02 and the more suburban areas in the general than Hawley, but maybe she'd do slightly worse than Hawley in the rural areas. Anyway, R+1, Wagner wins by 13 points, Hawley by 10 points. FTR, right now I believe Hawley will be the nominee.

MT (Tossup): While most Democrats think that Tester is heavily favored, I think the GOP can definitely win here. Both Rosendale and Olszewski would be fairly good candidates IMO, and I could also see Troy Downing doing well if he actually wins the nomination (doubtful, but he's kind of a wildcard). Democrats creating an aura of inevitability around Tester doesn't help them either, honestly. MT also has a fairly high Republican floor, and Eastern MT likely won't be as friendly to Tester next year as it was in 2012.  R+1, Rosendale wins by 6 and Olszewski by 4 or 5.

WV (Tossup): This race is tough to predict, and Jenkins might be a bit overrated. I think WV is a Tossup, but if Trump can get his supporters out in record numbers on election day (and I assume he'll be campaigning for Rs here), I think this seat will flip. R+1, Jenkins wins by 8 or 9 or so. (I could totally see Manchin winning as well, though)

OH (Tilt R): Brown is in big trouble, obviously. OH has an incredibly high Republican floor, especially in midterm years. Brown can win if he plays his cards right, but in the end I think some combination of Mandel doing better than expected in the Republican suburbs, crushing it in the traditionally Republican rural areas and outperforming his 2012 showing in the WWC areas by quite a bit should put him over the top. R+1, Mandel wins by 6 or 7.

FL (Tossup): Scott winning here is my bold prediction. Jimmie hinted at this already, I think Nelson is a remnant of the past and might be out of step with the times and his electorate, if you know what I mean. I know polls are showing a Nelson landslide right now, but I wouldn't underestimate Scott (especially if polling underestimates Republican support among White suburbanites and Working-class "Trumpist" voters again). R+1, Scott barely ekes it out by 1 or less. If Morgan is the Democratic nominee for governor, Scott might actually do better than if Graham wins the D primary.

Democratic holds

WI (Lean D): Baldwin is a good fit for swingy WI and isn't dumb enough to move to the center to win reelection. If she loses, it will be a sign that WI is moving away from the Democrats at a very fast pace. Unless someone like Hovde runs, I think she'll do very well in WI-03 and WI-07, and that should be enough, even if Walker wins reelection. D Hold, Baldwin wins by 4 or 5 points.

MI (Lean D): Stabenow should be fine, but like I've said several times before... 85% chance this race is a blowout and 15% chance it goes down to the wire. No in between. Right now, I assume the former will happen, but the race could get interesting if the GOP nominates the right candidate (and not just a generic conservative Republican).D Hold, Stabenow wins by 12 points.

ND (Lean D): I moved this from Likely to Lean D today. I still think Heitkamp is heavily favored to win, but you never know. Pretty sure that this seat only flips after IN, MO, MT, WV, FL, OH and maybe WI or MI, though. D Hold, Heitkamp beats Cramer by 5, Campbell by 12, Becker by 16 and Berg by 22. If she can win in 2018, this seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

PA (Likely D): Casey underperformed in 2012, but he should be fine in 2018. Pennsylvania is still fairly Democratic downballot. I agree that the GOP should put up a good wave insurance candidate, though. D Hold, Casey wins by 8 points.

ME (Likely D): King should be fine, but he will probably lose a few counties in ME-02 this time around. D Hold, King wins by 9.

Republican holds

AZ (Likely R): Flake is a bit underestimated IMO. I think he wins the primary much easier than expected and then goes on to win the general by 7 or so. Synema is - just like Kirkpatrick - way overrated (I actually think Carmona might be the strongest Democrat). R Hold.

TX (Likely R): O'Rourke will make it closer than it should be, but I think Cruz wins by 9 on election day, give or take 1 or 2 points. Things could get really ugly for Cruz in 2024, though. R Hold.

UT (Likely R): I am a bit worried about this race, but Hatch will probably be fine in the end. R Hold.

Wow this is hackish.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #104 on: June 21, 2017, 04:36:48 PM »

Here's a hot take. The democratic incumbents in red states who won election/reelection in 2012 in an environment that was only slightly less polarized then 2016 aren't heavy underdogs in a year that will almost certainly be at least a decent D wave. Even bigger hot take. Republicans aren't going to knock out popular swing state incumbents in a midterm under a Republican president whos 20 points underwater nationwide.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #105 on: June 21, 2017, 04:42:14 PM »

Here's a hot take. The democratic incumbents in red states who won election/reelection in 2012 in an environment that was only slightly less polarized then 2016 aren't heavy underdogs in a year that will almost certainly be at least a decent D wave. Even bigger hot take. Republicans aren't going to knock out popular swing state incumbents in a midterm under a Republican president whos 20 points underwater nationwide.
Let's not pretend McCaskill, Donnelly, Tester, and even Manchin are super popular in their states. Even Manchin has moved left on a lot of things over the past few years (endorsing Hillary even after her coal comments, PP funding, etc.) and I imagine he's lost some support over that. He's not the same Manchin from 2012.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #106 on: June 21, 2017, 06:18:16 PM »

you people are little school yard children.
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Skye
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« Reply #107 on: June 21, 2017, 06:57:30 PM »

Here's a hot take. The democratic incumbents in red states who won election/reelection in 2012 in an environment that was only slightly less polarized then 2016 aren't heavy underdogs in a year that will almost certainly be at least a decent D wave. Even bigger hot take. Republicans aren't going to knock out popular swing state incumbents in a midterm under a Republican president whos 20 points underwater nationwide.

Two of those incumbents won solely because their opponents were wackos who imploded after making incredibly dumb comments. And that's probably not going to happen twice.

Also, we really don't know if Trump's approvals will stay like this on election day.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #108 on: June 21, 2017, 07:00:50 PM »

Here's a hot take. The democratic incumbents in red states who won election/reelection in 2012 in an environment that was only slightly less polarized then 2016 aren't heavy underdogs in a year that will almost certainly be at least a decent D wave. Even bigger hot take. Republicans aren't going to knock out popular swing state incumbents in a midterm under a Republican president whos 20 points underwater nationwide.

Two of those incumbents won solely because their opponents were wackos who imploded after making incredibly dumb comments. And that's probably not going to happen twice.

Also, we really don't know if Trump's approvals will stay like this on election day.

McCaskill has a tendency to out perform expectations and she did not win solely because of legitimate rape.

Donnelly is anonymous which could be a blessing or curse. The curse would be that he would be killed at the ballot box because so many voters have no clue who he is or the blessing could be that he could have a chance to define himself in a positive light. McCaskill can not really redefine herself. People have rigid opinions of her.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #109 on: June 21, 2017, 07:11:31 PM »

Wow, I knew this was going to happen, lol. Anyway, I don't want to argue about my prediction anymore. I'll probably make some changes to it before election day anyway, but right now I think it's not that far-fetched (though I know FL is bold). You could argue about the margins, but all of MT/IN/MO/WV/OH(/maybe FL) and maybe one or two other states like WI could flip.

Also, it's not as if we have people like Heitkamp, Casey and King losing.

This being the key distinction. I agree all those could flip. But is it likely because of polarization? I guess we'll have to see

I obviously have my doubts that all those red state Democrats will go down that consistently under a Republican president versus under a Democratic president.

I am particularly perplexed as to why everyone thinks Manchin is DOA.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #110 on: June 21, 2017, 09:47:43 PM »

@TheSaint: He could take the Ron Johnson route to victory if he runs as an outsider businessman type (and he'd definitely do better than a generic R in these areas), but I'm not sure whether he could win. Baldwin is favored right now, obviously.

@Alice Scarlet: Yeah, we've heard it before. Everyone who doesn't predict a massive Democratic wave everywhere is "hackish" (How did that turn out for you so far in these special elections, btw?). Also, someone who makes these predictions...



Using ranks because calling races at this point seems premature.

... has no right to call other people hacks.

Anyway, not going to reply to you anymore, as it would just derail this thread. Can we just agree to disagree and not comment on each other's prediction?

Hackish is suggesting that its ridiculous to assume that the party of a president consistently facing a -20 net approval will probably be the victim of a wave. It took impeachment over a blowjob and 9/11 to get the last 2 positive midterms for the in party.(fun fact: also the last two midterms where the outparty didn't get a serious wave). The thing about these midterms is that the presidents involved had excellent approval ratings. Considering that the current trump approval ratings are under a good economy, I highly doubt that will happen.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #111 on: June 21, 2017, 11:18:50 PM »

My Ratings as of 6/21/17





Added light pink as Tilt D.


Apologies if it looks weird, first time creating and posting a map.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #112 on: June 22, 2017, 08:26:29 AM »

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reidmill
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« Reply #113 on: June 22, 2017, 12:22:13 PM »


Blasphemous color scheme.
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Kamala
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« Reply #114 on: June 22, 2017, 12:26:38 PM »


Is this the realignment?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #115 on: June 22, 2017, 12:43:54 PM »

lol very sorry to everyone for inverting the colors
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #116 on: June 22, 2017, 02:13:10 PM »

lol very sorry to everyone for inverting the colors

Can you provide a link for how you made that? Thanks
https://mapchart.net/usa.html

Just remove the state names (you can do that on the side.)

The site is great for mapmaking.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #117 on: June 22, 2017, 02:15:24 PM »


Actually close to mine. I'd move ND and MT right and NV to tossup and maybe AZ to light red, but pretty reasonable I think. People are forgetting that these Democrats won in an environment that was probably slightly worse than what 2018 is shaping up to be, but oh well
I guess I'm just playing it safe right now with ND and MT, especially since in MT, the GOP bench isn't too deep.  Also, I  forgot to note that AZ's color is lean R and NV's is (the slightest of tilts) tilt R, the latter of which I am only saying once again to play it safe, especially since Heller is an incumbent.  Clearly, though, he would be the first Republican in my ratings I would move leftward if the national environment looks more and more anti-GOP.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #118 on: June 22, 2017, 04:39:12 PM »

My Ratings as of 6/21/17





Added light pink as Tilt D.


Apologies if it looks weird, first time creating and posting a map.

Yes, this looks very reasonable. I agree with virtually all of it except maybe NV (should be a bit more D-friendly), VA (Kaine is beyond safe) and maybe I would move IN/FL/MI a bit to the right, but that is debatable.

But this is a good snapshot of where the races stand at this point in time.

Can see your point on FL and IN, FL Scott should move it to tossup once he jumps in and really starts campaigning, and with IN once a good candidate jumps in it'll move to likely R.  But I want to hear your reasoning on why MI should be less favorable to Stabenow, to my understanding she's an entrenched incumbent and won her last 2 elections by at least 15 points, that makes me put it at likely D, does she have a strong challenger or are her approval ratings failing?
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« Reply #119 on: June 22, 2017, 06:21:46 PM »

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.
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« Reply #120 on: June 22, 2017, 07:18:46 PM »



Pick-ups:

Indiana (Lean R): A lot will depend on who Donnelly's opponent is, and while I have no doubt that he'll massively overperform Clinton's 2016 performance, he is running in a tough state that often isn't kind to incumbents. He'll need some wind at his back to win.

Missouri (Tilt/Lean R): McCaskill is definitely in trouble, but she's been labeled DOA before, and we saw how that worked out for Republicans. Had she beaten Akin by only 2-3%, it would be hard to see her winning, but since she won by 16%, clearly she has more appeal in Missouri than some would like to give her credit for. She's not a bad campaigner, and while she's in for the fight of her political life, counting her out this early is foolish.

Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt D): Heller got very fortunate in 2012, and still just squeaked by. Nevada's also not trending in a favorable way for him. Again, though, much will depend on his opponent, and Rosen might be too inexperienced/untested on a statewide level. Since it will be a Trump midterm, though, Heller will likely face some headwinds.

North Dakota (Toss-Up/Tilt R): People seem to be ridiculously opinionated on this race. I think the assertion that Heitkamp has special appeal in North Dakota is accurate, but that doesn't make her a shoo-in, that just gives her a fighting chance. This is a state that has moved significantly to the right since 2012, and while we don't know who her opponent will be yet, there's a good chance he/she will be more competent than Berg, who she just barely beat.

Competitive holds:

Arizona (Lean R): Flake isn't very popular, and a strong Democratic challenger will definitely endanger him, but Arizona remains a tough state for Democrats. Republicans may not love Flake, but that doesn't mean they'll turn their backs on him and allow a Democrat to win.

Florida (Lean D): Nelson is decently popular, but he's running in a state that is chronically competitive, and his likely opponent, Rick Scott, will be able to self-fund his campaign. Scott, however, isn't exactly beloved, and just squeaked by twice in Republican wave years, so he won't have an easy time unseating a Democratic incumbent.

Michigan (Likely D): Stabenow will probably be fine, especially since the Republican bench here isn't very strong.

Montana (Toss-Up/Tilt D): Both of Tester's wins were impressive, but they were also narrow, so he definitely can't rest easy, even in a Trump midterm. The fact that his opponent won't be Zinke or Fox definitely helps him, though.

Ohio (Lean D): Mandel may look in good position right now, but so do Strickland in 2015, and we saw how that ended. Rematches have rarely worked out well for the loser, and while the results in Ohio in 2016 should make Brown at least a little nervous, he has much more appeal than Clinton did here.

Pennsylvania (Likely D): As long as Casey doesn't try to sleepwalk through his re-election again, he'll probably be okay.

West Virginia (Pure Toss-Up): This is the toughest race to predict, at this point. I could see anything from a Manchin losing by 15 to him winning by 20. Jenkins will be a tough opponent for him, but he is well-established in the state, and even if he bleeds a good deal of his support from 2012, his strong connections to the state will definitely come in handy. The million dollar question is just how much crossover appeal he still has.

Wisconsin (Lean/Likely D): Democrats likely won't get caught flat-footed here like they did in 2016, and Baldwin is the right kind of Democrat for this state. Especially if turnout doesn't drop in Milwaukee like it did last year, Baldwin will definitely be favored.
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« Reply #121 on: June 23, 2017, 06:10:53 AM »

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN
The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.
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« Reply #122 on: June 23, 2017, 11:26:57 AM »

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN
The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.
They underperfomed by a large number of points. Most Clinton republicans are staying blue.
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« Reply #123 on: June 23, 2017, 11:45:56 AM »

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.
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« Reply #124 on: June 23, 2017, 01:41:59 PM »

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.
This isn't possible in the slightest.
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