2018 Senatorial Elections

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I'm going to assume you have Ward primarying Flake here?

[Beet]

I'm going to assume you have Ward primarying Flake here?

I am not assuming anything. These are just very fuzzy projections that could change based on many factors.

[The Other Castro]

Some slight adjustments (and including Alabama from 2017):

[jamestroll]

No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.

[The Other Castro]

No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.

I'm comfortable with my ratings, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.

[jamestroll]

No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.

I'm comfortable with my ratings, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.

Thank you for putting mo as toss up! If i were straight and mccaskill was not an old she would be my type of white girl.

I love her!!!!!

[The_Doctor]

My guess:

Rationale: Trump's approval ratings will be 45-48%. A lot of this means that Republican turnout will be relatively depressed compared to 2016. Additionally, let's go down the races. The economy will begin slowing down but I don't think it will be horribly crappy at this point.

Dem Holds

1. Ohio: Sherrod Brown is an avowed populist who fits the state well in that regard. He'll win even though Trump won by 8 points. Any other Democrat, I'd peg this as a possible GOP pickup.
2. Florida: Bill Nelson has always won handily in a General Election and is an inoffensive Democrat. Again, D win. Trump won FL by just 1-1.5% so it's not much of a shift to keep it Democratic.
3. Pennsylvania. Bob Casey will prevail. Again, narrow GOP win 2016. This is a two term Democratic Senator who has experience holding down Pennsylvania and won his last term by 6%. Also, he's from a political dynasty who is legend in Pennsylvania. He's also got the advantage of being the out party. Philadelphia + the suburbs will vote Democratic while GOP turnout in the rural areas will be slightly down compared to 2016.
4. Michigan: Debbie has been in power since 2000 and has forged a long time connection to Michigan voters. The state went Republican by just 10,000 votes. She'll be fine.
5. Montana: Jon Tester lost his major GOP opponent in Ryan Zinke, who is now Secretary of the Interior. Tester is a decent retail politician who won re-election even as Romney won the state. Without a presidential election, Tester can probably galvanize enough of his supporters to back him for another term, especially given Montana's reservoir of Democratic votes that exist (narrow 2008 win for McCain, the state's governor is a Democrat, etc).
5. Wisconsin. She's got a tough race, given how red Wisconsin has trended and she's a first term senator unlike Debbie Stabenow. She's also a gay woman and while that wasn't a huge issue in 2012, this could be a problem in 2018. The GOP has kept a presence in Wisconsin and Walker will be running for a third term. This is kind of a 52-47% Democratic win, I think. But I could see WI going GOP. We'll see what the national moods are.

GOP Holds

1. Arizona: Jeff Flake has staked himself out as a critic of Donald Trump and yet also has staked himself out as a libertarian conservative. I don't think Arizona's ready to make the big jump to electing a Democratic Senator - yet. Flake holds on by a similar 50-45% to his 2012 win.
2. Nevada: Heller has a unparalleled ability to survive in rough terrain. He beat the Reid machine in 2012 and even as Obama won Nevada by six points, Heller has survived. Nevertheless, this is one of the races I'm least sure about. But I think Heller will be able to squeak it out. 
3. Texas. Not ready to be Atlas Red, yet. Cruz will win renomination and the General.

GOP pickups

1. West Virginia: The state's been trending hard right and while I expect it to backtrack to the left in the 2020s as the Bernie Sanders Democrats come to power, I think that the current trends suggest that West Virginians will junk Manchin. Nevertheless, could see Wisconsin sending Baldwin home and keeping Manchin. Manchin is the most skilled Democratic pol in a red state.
2. Missouri. Claire McCaskill has a major target on her back. She was due to lose in 2012 but eked out a win because of Akin. I don't think that Missouri will be that forgiving this time around.
3. Indiana: Same deal as MO. The GOP will be more careful to not nominate a Murdoch. Trump also won the state by 20 points.
4. North Dakota. See Indiana and Missouri and Wisconsin. Heitkamp is a first term senator who won by 1 point in a red state and expect the state to boot her. She's also lost a race here in North Dakota, suggesting vulnerability.

so, buckets - the deep Republican states (Atlas blue) will elect GOP senators, swing and lean Dem states will elect Dem Senators.

GOP gains +4 even as they lose 4-10 seats in the House. The major lesson is that the polarization continues apace as GOP states start moving more in line and Democratic states remain committed to the Dem Party and the swing states go to the party out of power. Don't think there will be a scandal big enough for Trump voters to stay home in 2018 (think that's more after 2018).

This stands, largely.

Obviously Trump's AR will not be likely 45-48%, but it should be enough for the GOP to pick up deep red states while losing everything else.

The most vulnerable seats, at this moment, for either party is Heller and Flake. But at this juncture, I think Heller still has good odds of survival. So I could be 1 seat off (could be a 55-45 majority, instead of 56-44).

[The Other Castro]

Not including major surprises (unexpected vacancies, retirements, etc), I only expect a maximum of 2 Democratic losses right now, coming from either Indiana or Missouri. If I had to pick one specific scenario, I think every Democratic seat will be held, with the net result being D+1 (from a Nevada gain). It's too early for me to get a good read on the chances of flipping AZ.

[ElectionsGuy]

Predictions

Net R+3 (-NV, +IN, MO, ND)

Ratings

Conclusion: Who really knows yet. This Trump midterm has the potential to be a disaster for Republicans but I don't think the Dems can pull off all of those overwhelmingly red states. Republicans are so lucky that this Senate class is up this year, there is much more potential for loss in the House.

[jamestroll]

No. West Virignia and North Dakota are likely Democratic.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.

I'm comfortable with my ratings, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.

Thank you for putting mo as toss up! If i were straight and mccaskill was not an old she would be my type of white girl.

I love her!!!!!

Wat?

[Canis]

My prediction atm a lot could change

[I’m not Stu]

Red: D
Blue: R
Green: I
Gray: No Senate race in 2018
Gold: Tossup
IN: Tossup for now; Wait for more GOP candidates to enter race
ND: Tossup for now; Lean R if Cramer runs
MT: Tilt D
NV: Tilt D
WV: Tossup for now; Likely D if Morrisey is GOP nominee; Tossup if Jenkins is nominee; Safe D if Raese is GOP nominee
NM: Likely D
MO: Tossup for now; Tilt D if no credible Republican; Lean R if credible Republican
AZ: Tilt R
TX: Likely R
VA: Likely D
FL: Lean D for now; Tossup if Rick Scott enters race
WI: Lean D
MI: Likely D
PA: Likely D
AZ: Lean R for now; Tossup if Flake loses primary
ME: Likely I

[TheSaint250]

I'm starting to become more and more convinced that Kaine's seat atm is safe

[jamestroll]

No. West Virginia and North Dakota are likely Democratic.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Dark Red: Safe Dem
Red: Likely Dem
Light Red: Lean Dem
Green: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean Rep
Blue: Likely Rep
Dark Blue: Safe Rep

I'm including the 2017 Alabama special election, in this map too.

Sanders and King are both colored in as Democrats.

I think it's more likely than not that Nevada flips Dem and Missouri flips Rep. Both Heller and McCaskill are very unpopular in their opposite-trending states (Nevada --> D, Missouri --> R).

MTTreasurer is going to bite my head off for putting Heitkamp as a tossup, lol.

EDIT: Forgot about Hawaii. Safe D, of course.

EDIT 2: New Hampshire shouldn't be colored in.

[TheSaint250]

Why are people saying that Texas is not safe for Cruz?

[jamestroll]

No.

Missouri is a toss up and West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

[TheLeftwardTide]

No.

Missouri is a toss up and West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

How is North Dakota likely D? Lean D at best.

[choclatechip45]

No.

Missouri is a toss up and West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

How is North Dakota likely D? Lean D at best.

Because Heitkamp is probably one of the best retail politicians democrats have in a Red State in 2018. No one thought she had a shot in 2012. Politico just did a big profile on her and they interviewed a trump voter who said he would absolutely vote for her in 2018. 

[TheLeftwardTide]

No.

Missouri is a toss up and West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

How is North Dakota likely D? Lean D at best.

Because Heitkamp is probably one of the best retail politicians democrats have in a Red State in 2018. No one thought she had a shot in 2012. Politico just did a big profile on her and they interviewed a trump voter who said he would absolutely vote for her in 2018. 

Your last point is simply a moot anecdote, and should be treated as such. Heitkamp is a good fit for North Dakota, but in the face of trends on both the national and local level thanks to the fracking boom, would that be enough? In situations like this, I think back to Arkansas in 2014, when Mark Pryor, an immensely powerful figure in Arkansas politics, got absolutely sh**tcanned by Tom Cotton (a fairly weak candidate in my opinion) due to the state trends. Yes, southern states tend to be much more inelastic than the Dakotas, but the point still stands nonetheless.

Retail politics doesn't bring a state like ND up to Likely D status. If you look at my map, Likely D includes Baldwin, Casey, Nelson, and Shaheen. Heitkamp is definitely more vulnerable than those candidates. Lean D includes Brown, Manchin, and Heller (flip) - I would argue that Heitkamp is more vulnerable than all of those politicians as well. Hence, a tossup. Probably more safe than Donnelly but that's not saying much.

[Heisenberg]

^Shaheen? She's not up until 2020, there's no Senate race in New Hampshire next year.

[Pericles]

If McCain's Senate seat becomes vacant, I believe that a special election would be held in 2018 to fill it(http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/07/20/what-if-senator-mccain-leaves-office-how-process-works/494621001/). If it does become vacant, what effect do you think it will have on the 2018 Senate elections?

[choclatechip45]

No.

Missouri is a toss up and West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

How is North Dakota likely D? Lean D at best.

Because Heitkamp is probably one of the best retail politicians democrats have in a Red State in 2018. No one thought she had a shot in 2012. Politico just did a big profile on her and they interviewed a trump voter who said he would absolutely vote for her in 2018. 

Your last point is simply a moot anecdote, and should be treated as such. Heitkamp is a good fit for North Dakota, but in the face of trends on both the national and local level thanks to the fracking boom, would that be enough? In situations like this, I think back to Arkansas in 2014, when Mark Pryor, an immensely powerful figure in Arkansas politics, got absolutely sh**tcanned by Tom Cotton (a fairly weak candidate in my opinion) due to the state trends. Yes, southern states tend to be much more inelastic than the Dakotas, but the point still stands nonetheless.

Retail politics doesn't bring a state like ND up to Likely D status. If you look at my map, Likely D includes Baldwin, Casey, Nelson, and Shaheen. Heitkamp is definitely more vulnerable than those candidates. Lean D includes Brown, Manchin, and Heller (flip) - I would argue that Heitkamp is more vulnerable than all of those politicians as well. Hence, a tossup. Probably more safe than Donnelly but that's not saying much.

Difference is in 2008 no one ran against Pryor so he hadn't had a tough re election campaign in awhile. Everyone said Heitkamp had no shot in 2012 and she won. She won because she ran a great campaign not because her opponent said something stupid or no republican didn't run against her. She is popular in her state 60% approval ratings not sure what Pryor's ratings were in 2014. I think Heitkamp had done a better job separating herself from the party. Not sure why you are bringing up Shaheen she is not up until 2020. Baldwin is definitely more vulnerable than you think Obama ran ahead of her.

[TheSaint250]

No.

Missouri is a toss up and West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

How is North Dakota likely D? Lean D at best.

Because Heitkamp is probably one of the best retail politicians democrats have in a Red State in 2018. No one thought she had a shot in 2012. Politico just did a big profile on her and they interviewed a trump voter who said he would absolutely vote for her in 2018. 

Your last point is simply a moot anecdote, and should be treated as such. Heitkamp is a good fit for North Dakota, but in the face of trends on both the national and local level thanks to the fracking boom, would that be enough? In situations like this, I think back to Arkansas in 2014, when Mark Pryor, an immensely powerful figure in Arkansas politics, got absolutely sh**tcanned by Tom Cotton (a fairly weak candidate in my opinion) due to the state trends. Yes, southern states tend to be much more inelastic than the Dakotas, but the point still stands nonetheless.

Retail politics doesn't bring a state like ND up to Likely D status. If you look at my map, Likely D includes Baldwin, Casey, Nelson, and Shaheen. Heitkamp is definitely more vulnerable than those candidates. Lean D includes Brown, Manchin, and Heller (flip) - I would argue that Heitkamp is more vulnerable than all of those politicians as well. Hence, a tossup. Probably more safe than Donnelly but that's not saying much.

Difference is in 2008 no one ran against Pryor so he hadn't had a tough re election campaign in awhile. Everyone said Heitkamp had no shot in 2012 and she won. She won because she ran a great campaign not because her opponent said something stupid or no republican didn't run against her. She is popular in her state 60% approval ratings not sure what Pryor's ratings were in 2014. I think Heitkamp had done a better job separating herself from the party. Not sure why you are bringing up Shaheen she is not up until 2020. Baldwin is definitely more vulnerable than you think Obama ran ahead of her.

Pryor probably would've won in 2008 with a GOP opponent. Landrieu did. Just pointing that out