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Author Topic: 2018 Senatorial Elections  (Read 46936 times)
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« Reply #175 on: June 29, 2017, 04:43:49 pm »
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^It's not just one person and you know it. I've seen enough confident predictions from Democrats not just on Atlas but also on other sites and even IRL which have only confirmed my assumption, so don't worry. And if you want to talk about pundits... Cook thinks the race is Likely D, and Sabato, Rasmussen and DecisionDesk all have it in the Lean D category. MO is either rated a Tossup or Lean D (especially the latter is beyond ridiculous), but never Lean R.

But yes, yes, 2018 will definitely be a big Democratic wave, so obviously these ratings must be accurate and anyone who dares to question them is a GOP hack. Also, the winning party always wins all the Tossup/close seats and holds all of their own seats, obviously.
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« Reply #176 on: June 29, 2017, 04:55:51 pm »
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At some point the GOP will not have a good night. Should be noted that polling in 2012 underestimated Democratic support.

Of course a good way to lose an election is to act like you can not possibly lose it.
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« Reply #177 on: June 29, 2017, 05:07:04 pm »
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Of course a good way to lose an election is to act like you can not possibly lose it.

Okay, please show me where exactly I said that.

[/center]

Just out of curiosity... which Democrat wins the Senate race in TN in this scenario? Yes, the 2006 race was close, but you realize TN is probably the most Republican state in the South today, right? Even if Trump is very unpopular there, that doesn't mean that all the #NeverTrump Republicans or R-leaning Indys who disapprove of him will vote for the Democratic Senate candidate and make Chuck Schumer majority leader. Democrats managed to win NH, MI, MN, etc. fairly easily in 2014 as well and also won some competitive races in 2010 and 2016.
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« Reply #178 on: June 29, 2017, 05:09:04 pm »
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^I think that was a mistake. His numbers have 52 R + the 3 newly elected ones
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« Reply #179 on: June 29, 2017, 05:12:28 pm »
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Look, how about instead of attacking eachother's predictions we post what we believe the ratings are and how they will go and see how they hold up to the actual results? 
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« Reply #180 on: June 29, 2017, 05:25:32 pm »
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Look, how about instead of attacking eachother's predictions we post what we believe the ratings are and how they will go and see how they hold up to the actual results? 

I was doing that before Omegascarlet, PNM and some of the others started attacking me for making hackish and overconfident predictions again.

But yeah, I'm not going to respond to this nonsense anymore, so again - this is my current prediction.
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« Reply #181 on: June 29, 2017, 05:32:45 pm »
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^I think that was a mistake. His numbers have 52 R + the 3 newly elected ones

Yes even in a wave Democrats will lose Tennessee I meant to put it for the GOP.
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« Reply #182 on: June 29, 2017, 05:38:33 pm »
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Of course a good way to lose an election is to act like you can not possibly lose it.

Okay, please show me where exactly I said that.

Hold on, I may have not been referring to you.

Right now we are not in a position to make any confident predictions. Too many contradictory factors.

We saw in 2010 and 2014 midterms how many Democratic Senators were just tossed out. Even if they were entrenched and popular and often by landslide margins. In 2012 they had very good luck and many had no problem winning re-election.  So it is easy right there to say that it was because of "midterms!!". But presidential years were supposedly always supposed to be good for Democrats because the last two presidential cycles and we all see how that went.

I have a hunch that all these deep Trump state Democrats may not necessarily lose in the upcoming midterm despite results of 2010 and 2014. The variables are different.

Special elections do not dictate or even predict what will happen the next cycle but they can give clues. KS-04 shows that the midwest is indeed quite elastic. That may give some hope for McCaskill and Heitkamp. GA-06 showed that the sun belt suburbs are indeed trending to the Democrats but we are not there yet and it also showed overconfidence can destroy election chances. Should be noted that GA-05, which neighbors GA-06, is D+34.  What does it say about the Republican Party that they have to depend on structure to win?
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« Reply #183 on: June 29, 2017, 06:06:33 pm »
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For the GOP best-case scenario WV and MT could be potential gains, however Tester and Manchin are strong incumbents in states willing to vote for Democrats down-ballot. Florida is possible but it is not Republican-enough to be a very likely gain and given that Nelson is a strong incumbent he'll probably win. I'd say more likely Democrats and Republicans both fail to make significant gains-maybe 1 or 2 gains either way(though 2 R gains probably means Republicans keep both houses) as Democrats gain big at the House and state level.
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« Reply #184 on: June 29, 2017, 06:29:16 pm »
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My most-likely scenario
2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 51-1
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 47+1
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority
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« Reply #185 on: June 29, 2017, 09:44:55 pm »
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« Reply #186 on: June 29, 2017, 09:49:52 pm »
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I'm going to assume you have Ward primarying Flake here?
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« Reply #187 on: June 30, 2017, 03:24:50 pm »
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I'm going to assume you have Ward primarying Flake here?

I am not assuming anything. These are just very fuzzy projections that could change based on many factors.
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« Reply #188 on: June 30, 2017, 04:23:03 pm »
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Some slight adjustments (and including Alabama from 2017):


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« Reply #189 on: June 30, 2017, 04:40:45 pm »
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No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.
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« Reply #190 on: June 30, 2017, 07:39:18 pm »
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No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.

I'm comfortable with my ratings, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.
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« Reply #191 on: June 30, 2017, 07:49:50 pm »
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No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.

I'm comfortable with my ratings, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.

Thank you for putting mo as toss up! If i were straight and mccaskill was not an old she would be my type of white girl.

I love her!!!!!
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« Reply #192 on: July 01, 2017, 02:44:59 pm »
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My guess:


Rationale: Trump's approval ratings will be 45-48%. A lot of this means that Republican turnout will be relatively depressed compared to 2016. Additionally, let's go down the races. The economy will begin slowing down but I don't think it will be horribly crappy at this point.

Dem Holds

1. Ohio: Sherrod Brown is an avowed populist who fits the state well in that regard. He'll win even though Trump won by 8 points. Any other Democrat, I'd peg this as a possible GOP pickup.
2. Florida: Bill Nelson has always won handily in a General Election and is an inoffensive Democrat. Again, D win. Trump won FL by just 1-1.5% so it's not much of a shift to keep it Democratic.
3. Pennsylvania. Bob Casey will prevail. Again, narrow GOP win 2016. This is a two term Democratic Senator who has experience holding down Pennsylvania and won his last term by 6%. Also, he's from a political dynasty who is legend in Pennsylvania. He's also got the advantage of being the out party. Philadelphia + the suburbs will vote Democratic while GOP turnout in the rural areas will be slightly down compared to 2016.
4. Michigan: Debbie has been in power since 2000 and has forged a long time connection to Michigan voters. The state went Republican by just 10,000 votes. She'll be fine.
5. Montana: Jon Tester lost his major GOP opponent in Ryan Zinke, who is now Secretary of the Interior. Tester is a decent retail politician who won re-election even as Romney won the state. Without a presidential election, Tester can probably galvanize enough of his supporters to back him for another term, especially given Montana's reservoir of Democratic votes that exist (narrow 2008 win for McCain, the state's governor is a Democrat, etc).
5. Wisconsin. She's got a tough race, given how red Wisconsin has trended and she's a first term senator unlike Debbie Stabenow. She's also a gay woman and while that wasn't a huge issue in 2012, this could be a problem in 2018. The GOP has kept a presence in Wisconsin and Walker will be running for a third term. This is kind of a 52-47% Democratic win, I think. But I could see WI going GOP. We'll see what the national moods are.

GOP Holds

1. Arizona: Jeff Flake has staked himself out as a critic of Donald Trump and yet also has staked himself out as a libertarian conservative. I don't think Arizona's ready to make the big jump to electing a Democratic Senator - yet. Flake holds on by a similar 50-45% to his 2012 win.
2. Nevada: Heller has a unparalleled ability to survive in rough terrain. He beat the Reid machine in 2012 and even as Obama won Nevada by six points, Heller has survived. Nevertheless, this is one of the races I'm least sure about. But I think Heller will be able to squeak it out. 
3. Texas. Not ready to be Atlas Red, yet. Cruz will win renomination and the General.

GOP pickups

1. West Virginia: The state's been trending hard right and while I expect it to backtrack to the left in the 2020s as the Bernie Sanders Democrats come to power, I think that the current trends suggest that West Virginians will junk Manchin. Nevertheless, could see Wisconsin sending Baldwin home and keeping Manchin. Manchin is the most skilled Democratic pol in a red state.
2. Missouri. Claire McCaskill has a major target on her back. She was due to lose in 2012 but eked out a win because of Akin. I don't think that Missouri will be that forgiving this time around.
3. Indiana: Same deal as MO. The GOP will be more careful to not nominate a Murdoch. Trump also won the state by 20 points.
4. North Dakota. See Indiana and Missouri and Wisconsin. Heitkamp is a first term senator who won by 1 point in a red state and expect the state to boot her. She's also lost a race here in North Dakota, suggesting vulnerability.

so, buckets - the deep Republican states (Atlas blue) will elect GOP senators, swing and lean Dem states will elect Dem Senators.

GOP gains +4 even as they lose 4-10 seats in the House. The major lesson is that the polarization continues apace as GOP states start moving more in line and Democratic states remain committed to the Dem Party and the swing states go to the party out of power. Don't think there will be a scandal big enough for Trump voters to stay home in 2018 (think that's more after 2018).

This stands, largely.

Obviously Trump's AR will not be likely 45-48%, but it should be enough for the GOP to pick up deep red states while losing everything else.

The most vulnerable seats, at this moment, for either party is Heller and Flake. But at this juncture, I think Heller still has good odds of survival. So I could be 1 seat off (could be a 55-45 majority, instead of 56-44).
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« Reply #193 on: July 01, 2017, 07:03:13 pm »
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Another point that should be made is that Senatorial elections don't work according to some random formula or uniform swing. Yes, Heitkamp only won by 1 in 2012, but that doesn't mean she will lose by 16 points next year because the state swung 17 points to the right in 2016. She'll be running as a popular incumbent this time, and she has mastered the art of retail politics.

People are quite obsessed with the 2012 margins, but I wouldn't pay too much attention to them. McCaskill and Donnelly won in a landslide, yet few people would say that Donnelly is less likely to lose than Tester and that McCaskill is less vulnerable than Tim Kaine, no?
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« Reply #194 on: July 03, 2017, 01:21:48 pm »
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Not including major surprises (unexpected vacancies, retirements, etc), I only expect a maximum of 2 Democratic losses right now, coming from either Indiana or Missouri. If I had to pick one specific scenario, I think every Democratic seat will be held, with the net result being D+1 (from a Nevada gain). It's too early for me to get a good read on the chances of flipping AZ.
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« Reply #195 on: July 07, 2017, 04:22:15 am »
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Predictions



Net R+3 (-NV, +IN, MO, ND)

Ratings



Conclusion: Who really knows yet. This Trump midterm has the potential to be a disaster for Republicans but I don't think the Dems can pull off all of those overwhelmingly red states. Republicans are so lucky that this Senate class is up this year, there is much more potential for loss in the House.
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« Reply #196 on: July 07, 2017, 07:08:54 am »
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No. West Virignia and North Dakota are likely Democratic.
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« Reply #197 on: July 07, 2017, 04:36:16 pm »
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No West Viriginia is likely to solid Democrat. And North Dakota is likely dem.

I'm comfortable with my ratings, but everyone's entitled to their opinion.

Thank you for putting mo as toss up! If i were straight and mccaskill was not an old she would be my type of white girl.

I love her!!!!!

Wat?
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« Reply #198 on: July 08, 2017, 10:43:43 pm »
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My prediction atm a lot could change
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« Reply #199 on: July 18, 2017, 12:06:22 am »
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Red: D
Blue: R
Green: I
Gray: No Senate race in 2018
Gold: Tossup
IN: Tossup for now; Wait for more GOP candidates to enter race
ND: Tossup for now; Lean R if Cramer runs
MT: Tilt D
NV: Tilt D
WV: Tossup for now; Likely D if Morrisey is GOP nominee; Tossup if Jenkins is nominee; Safe D if Raese is GOP nominee
NM: Likely D
MO: Tossup for now; Tilt D if no credible Republican; Lean R if credible Republican
AZ: Tilt R
TX: Likely R
VA: Likely D
FL: Lean D for now; Tossup if Rick Scott enters race
WI: Lean D
MI: Likely D
PA: Likely D
AZ: Lean R for now; Tossup if Flake loses primary
ME: Likely I

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