2018 Senatorial Elections

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

[UncleSam]

R+4

R gains:
All of: IN, MO
Some/most of: MT, ND, WV, OH (2 or 3 from this group)
Fraction of: MI, WI, FL, PA, VA (1-2 of these)

D gains:
All of: NV
Some/most of: AZ (40/60 underdogs imo)
Fraction of: TX, UT (pick up one or both of these in a wave / if something odd happens)

Don't think the Heitkamp will win mantra is particularly true - she is running a good campaign sure but I think people underestimate just how red the plains have become. This is Trump land and he is their god, and he can easily motivate enough people to sink even the best campaign in a place like North Dakota.

WV is somewhat similar, Trump is crazy popular there. Hard to see even Joe Manchin survive if Trump campaigns against him.

OH I think will be a toss up on Election Day but will clearly be the bellwether for whether or not Rs or Ds are having a good night in the senate. I happen to think that it is entirely possible that house, senate, and governor's races do not predict one another at all in 2018 but we will see.

MI, WI, and FL are the most likely of the unlikely to flip column, I think one of these will flip in the end though it is definitely possible Trump will motivate liberals in Madison / Ann Arbor / Fort Lauterdale and Dems will sweep these. VA and PA are a step more likely for Ds to hold because Trump WILL motivate Philadelpia and NOVA to show up - these are borderline safe seats barring strong R campaigns imo.

Nevada is an easy win for Ds, and AZ is a prime opportunity. I think it's 6 years too early for this seat to flip however, though if it does flip I think Ds hold it forever basically.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Old Map (from ~1 month ago):

New Map:

Changes:
Arizona: Lean R --> Tossup
Michigan: Safe D --> Likely D
Montana: Tossup --> Lean D

I'm considering moving Pennsylvania to Safe D and North Dakota to Lean D, but I don't know for now. If the Republicans nominate someone incompetent in Missouri, I'd change that race as well.

My predictions are becoming more and more hackish. I better get off of Atlas before I start saying Alabama is a tossup.

[Blackacre]

So anywhere from D+2 to R+3.

Or anywhere from D+2 to R+5?

Or anywhere from D+4 to R+11??

Some explanations:
I'm using Tossup-Tilt-Lean-Likely-Safe as my spectrum
I consider a "likely" state to be a state that is very likely to go for the party it's shaded in but has a nonzero chance of going the other way. This is Texas. Cruz will probably win, but there is a slim chance he won't. This is also how I'm characterizing Florida and Virginia, as well as New Jersey. I will move NJ to Safe D once I'm 100% sure that someone who is not the incumbent will be the D nominee.

I'll move Alabama to Lean R if Moore wins and National Dems get involved, and to Safe R if that does not happen. This is all in lieu of general election polling ofc.

Arizona goes to Lean D as soon as a credibal Democrat steps up to run against Flake.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

Alabama is not Solid R. I'd put it as Lean at most.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Safe D
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Rhode Island

Strong D
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Washington

Lean D
Michigan (could be a toss-up depending on who the GOP nominates)
New Jersey (see Michigan)
New Mexico (could be a toss-up if Martinez runs)
Pennsylvania
Virginia (see Michigan)
West Virginia

Toss-up
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Ohio
Wisconsin

Lean R
Arizona
Nevada

Safe R
Mississippi
Nebraska
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Strong I
Maine (since LePage isn't running)

Safe I
Vermont

Democrats shouldn't get cocky about President Trump's poll numbers.  Their own numbers are even worse than his, and Trump actually breaks about even with people who are actually likely to vote.  Most of all, they are in the same position as Senate Republicans were last election: they have far more seats to defend, and thus more to lose.

[Blackacre]

Democrats shouldn't get cocky about President Trump's poll numbers.  Their own numbers are even worse than his, and Trump actually breaks about even with people who are actually likely to vote.  Most of all, they are in the same position as Senate Republicans were last election: they have far more seats to defend, and thus more to lose.

Obama was more popular than the GOP in November 2010. Didn't matter. Midterms are a referendum on the President's party.

[jamestroll]

No toss up map. Based on gut feelings, current polling, astrological transits around election night 2018 and early January 2019.

[West_Midlander]

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/8mJdql
Dem +2

Republicans hold Senate, 51-50 w/ Pence's vote.

[_]

As of 9/8/17

Notes:

IN is Tilt R instead of Lean R
In CA the Seat itself is Safe D, but the Primary is Lean Feinstein
FL would be Tilt D without Rick Scott, but he's gonna run so it's tossup

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

This is hilarious honestly.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why do people seem to think McCaskill is more vulnerable than the other Democrats in GOP states?

The weirdest part of this whole thing is that of the 5 Democrats defending seats in Romney states, McCaskill was the only one who won a bigger margin than Romney in their state.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

McCaskill is seen as the most vulnerable because she has low approval ratings in Missouri, and Missouri appears to keep on trending R.

She won by a fair amount in 2012 because of her challenger's rape gaffes.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

[TheSaint250]

Why is Wyoming the only safe R seat? And why is Alabama a tossup? More importantly, why is Missouri NOT at least a tossup?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Smoking that good good

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Why is Wyoming the only safe R seat? And why is Alabama a tossup? More importantly, why is Missouri NOT at least a tossup?

In polling, Alabama is a statistical tie.

[_]

For me it's this map but

AZ = Tossup
NV = Tossup
UT = Safe R
ND = Lean D
MO = Lean R
IN = Tilt R
WI = Tossup
MI = Lean D
AL = Likely R


I'm not 100% sure on PA being Tilt D, but I'll cede to MT on it being that.  (I assume you have Barletta being the nom yes?)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Predictions were recently updated, and injected into my signature.

[erſatz-york]

GOP: 56 (+4)
DEM: 44 (-4)

Seat Changes (bold denotes party change)
AL: Luther Strange (R-Cool Name) --> Roy Moore (R-Jeebus)
AZ: Jeff Flake (R-Out of Touch, Also Mormon) --> Matt Salmon (R-eplacement Mormon, Not Out of Touch)
AZ (S): John McCain (R-IP) --> Martha McSally (R-McCain²)
CA: Diane Feinstein (D-Assisted Living) --> Kevin de León (D-#resist)
IN: Joe Donnelly (D-esperate) --> Luke Messer (R-Not Rokita)
MO: Air Claire (D-oomed) --> Josh Hawley (R-ising Star)
MT: Jon Testes (D-???) --> Matt Rosendale (R-Insurance)
NV: Dean Heller (R-Mormon) --> Jacky Rosen (D-Fresh)
NJ: Bob Menendez (D-Jail) --> Donald Norcross (D-La Cosa Norcross)
ND: Hidey Hidekamp (D-A Good Woman) --> Tom Campbell (R-Ad Boobs)
PA: Bob Casey (D-Not Pro-Choice) --> Lou Barletta (R-ProtoTrump)
TN: Bob Corker (R-Liddle) --> Marsha Blackburn (R-Anti Twitter)
UT: Orrin Hatch (R-Doom 2) --> MITT ROMNEY! (R-Javelin)

Selected Other Races
MI: Debbie Stabmenow (D-Incumbent) def. Kate Upton's Uncle (R-Up or Out)
WI: Tammy Baldwin (D-Gay) def. Leah Vukmir (R-Registered Nurse, Probable Soccer Mom)
TX: Ted Cruz (R-Porn) def. Beto O'Rourke (D-TITANIUM D TEXAS)
MA: Walking Eagle (D-Too Full of S**t to Fly, Fake Indian) def. Shiva Ayyadurai (R-eal Indian)
VA: Tim Kaine (D-Soccer Dad) def. Corey Stewart (R-Self Hating Yankee)
FL: Bill Nelson (D-Spaceman) def. Rick Scott (R-Voldemort)
OH: Sherrod Brown (D-Populist) def. Josh Mandel (R-Ugly)
MN: Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota Nice, Future President) def. Jim Newberger (R-Nobody)
WV: Joe Manchin (D-Blue Dog) def. Patrick Morrisey (R-New Jersey)

[Pericles]

2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 52_ 41.0%
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 46_ 53.7%
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

[Sirius_]

D-51 (I-2)(+3)
R-49 (-3)

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

D-51 (I-2)(+2)
R-49 (-2)

Very bold prediction, but I don't see this happening.

[Sirius_]

D-51 (I-2)(+3)
R-49 (-3)

Very bold prediction, but I don't see this happening.

It's possible. Ted Cruz's approval ratings are abysmal, Krysten Sinema leads Kelli Ward, and Heller is an unfavorably viewed republican in a state that's trending D.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

D - 48 (+0), R - 52 (+0)

>30% = Tilt D/R
>50% = Lean D/R
>70% = Likely D/R
>90% = Safe D/R

Safe D:

• California
• Connecticut
• Maryland
• Delaware
• Washington
• New Mexico
• New York
• Hawaii
• Minnesota
• Massachusetts
• Rhode Island
• Maine
• Vermont

Likely D:

• Michigan
• Virginia
• New Jersey

Lean D:

• Montana
• West Virginia
• Florida
• Wisconsin
• North Dakota
• Pennsylvania

Tilt D:

• Nevada
• Arizona
• Ohio

Tilt R:

• Missouri
• Indiana

Likely R:

• Alabama
• Texas
• Utah
• Tennessee

Safe R:

• Mississippi
• Wyoming
• Nebraska