2018 Senatorial Elections

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Changes:

Alabama: Likely R to Lean R

[TrumpBritt24]

2/19/2018

Safe D - WA, CA, HI, NM, WV, VA, PA, NY, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD

Likely D - MT, MN1, MN2, WI, MI, IN, OH, FL,

Safe R - UT, WY, NE, TX, MS

Likely R - MO, TN

Tossup - NV (Pure tossup, though I'd say the GOP pulls it out. I expect Tarkanian/Rosen)

Tossup - AZ (Many interesting possible combinations here, but I think it goes blue as the youth and anti-Trump Blue Wave goes into effect. I call Arpaio vs. Sinema)

Tossup - ND (I think incumbent's advantage puts Heitkamp over the edge on road to a possible 2020 campaign)

[Dr. MB]

Safe D
WA, CA, HI, NM, MN (regular), VA, MD, DE, NY, MA, CT, RI, VT

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

Lean D
ND, IN, WV, FL, OH

Tossup
MO, AZ, UT

Lean R
TN, TX

Likely R
MS

Safe R
NE, WY, UT

[Dr. MB]

2/19/2018

Safe D - WA, CA, HI, NM, WV, VA, PA, NY, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD

Likely D - MT, MN1, MN2, WI, MI, IN, OH, FL,

Safe R - UT, WY, NE, TX, MS

Likely R - MO, TN

Tossup - NV (Pure tossup, though I'd say the GOP pulls it out. I expect Tarkanian/Rosen)

Tossup - AZ (Many interesting possible combinations here, but I think it goes blue as the youth and anti-Trump Blue Wave goes into effect. I call Arpaio vs. Sinema)

Tossup - ND (I think incumbent's advantage puts Heitkamp over the edge on road to a possible 2020 campaign)

Don't really see how MO's anything more than a tossup or tilt R.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

If MT is Likely D, all the other states are almost certainly Safe D IMO. Tester is a pretty strong incumbent, but he’s not THAT strong/popular and MT is not THAT Democratic down-ballot.

[Dr. MB]

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

If MT is Likely D, all the other states are almost certainly Safe D IMO. Tester is a pretty strong incumbent, but he’s not THAT strong/popular and MT is not THAT Democratic down-ballot.

It’s just that the GOP hasn’t put up too strong of a candidate, and I don’t really see him losing this year, where I could see Donnelly or McCaskill, or even Heitkamp losing.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

[Calthrina950]

This is my first attempt at rating races, so forgive me for anything that might be out of place. Currently, I rank the states as the following:

Safe Democratic-California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Likely Democratic-Michigan, Minnesota-Special, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Lean Democratic-Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia.

Tossup-Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Lean Republican-None.

Likely Republican-Mississippi-Special, Texas.

Safe Republican-Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming.

On this map, Alabama represents MS-Special, while Georgia represents MN-Special.

[YE]

This is my first attempt at rating races, so forgive me for anything that might be out of place. Currently, I rank the states as the following:

Safe Democratic-California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Likely Democratic-Michigan, Minnesota-Special, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Lean Democratic-Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia.

Tossup-Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Lean Republican-None.

Likely Republican-Mississippi-Special, Texas.

Safe Republican-Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming.

On this map, Alabama represents MS-Special, while Georgia represents MN-Special.

You have Ohio listed as both lean and likely D but otherwise those are my exact ratings.

[Calthrina950]

This is my first attempt at rating races, so forgive me for anything that might be out of place. Currently, I rank the states as the following:

Safe Democratic-California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Likely Democratic-Michigan, Minnesota-Special, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Lean Democratic-Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia.

Tossup-Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Lean Republican-None.

Likely Republican-Mississippi-Special, Texas.

Safe Republican-Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming.

On this map, Alabama represents MS-Special, while Georgia represents MN-Special.

You have Ohio listed as both lean and likely D but otherwise those are my exact ratings.

I corrected that mistake.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

D - 48 (+0), R - 52 (+0)

>30% = Tilt D/R
>50% = Lean D/R
>70% = Likely D/R
>90% = Safe D/R

Safe D:

• California
• Connecticut
• Maryland
• Delaware
• Washington
• New Mexico
• New York
• Hawaii
• Minnesota
• Massachusetts
• Rhode Island
• Maine
• Vermont

Likely D:

• Michigan
• Virginia
• New Jersey

Lean D:

• Montana
• West Virginia
• Florida
• Wisconsin
• North Dakota
• Pennsylvania

Tilt D:

• Nevada
• Arizona
• Ohio

Tilt R:

• Missouri
• Indiana

Likely R:

• Alabama
• Texas
• Utah
• Tennessee

Safe R:

• Mississippi
• Wyoming
• Nebraska

Only changes: TN, FL, and MO are now Tilt D, and UT is now Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IN tilts GOP, and Dems win TN, AZ and NV

[Beet]

NEW PREDICTIONS:

[😥]

Arizona: Lean D (flip)
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Tossup
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Tossup
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Safe D
MN-special: Likely D
Mississippi: Safe R
MS-special: Likely R Hyde-Smith vs Espy +++
                      Lean D McDaniel vs Espy
Missouri: Tossup
Montana: Likely D
Nebraska: Likely R
Nevada: Tossup
New Jersey: Lean D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup
Ohio: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Tossup
Texas: Lean R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe I
Virginia: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D
Wyoming: Safe
1 flip R-D D+1

Without Tossup
Florida: Tilt R (flip)
Indiana: Tilt D
Missouri: Tilt D
Nevada: Tilt D (flip)
North Dakota: Tilt R (flip)
Tennessee: Tilt D (flip)
------------------------------------
3 flip R-D (Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee)
2 flip D-R (North Dakota, Florida)
50R---50D
 +1R Vice-President
51R---50D

[libertpaulian]

90%=Safe
70%=Likely
50%=Lean
30%=Tilt
Green=Tossup

Please ignore Maine and Vermont.  King and Sanders are counted as Dems for purposes of map coloring.

[pops]

Odds of winning

Dianne Feinstein is listed as Independent because she doesn't have the Democratic Party endorsement.