2018 Senatorial Elections

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Arizona: Likely R
California: Likely D (Assuming Feinstein retires. The D bench in California is so clogged up that any sense of "It's this person's turn now" is going to crumble at some point and lead to an R vs. R general - just a question of when.)
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean D
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Likely R (pickup)
Maine: Lean I (LePage has already said he'll run unless he's part of Trump's cabinet, and some "real dem" might run too.)
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Likely D (Klobuchar could always get tapped for SCOTUS)
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Lean R (pickup)
Montana: Lean R (pickup)
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Jersey: Likely D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Lean R (pickup)
Ohio: Toss-Up
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe I
Virginia: Toss-Up
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Lean D
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R

So, depending on the Toss-Ups, R+3 to R+6 at this incredibly early juncture.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^Virginia will probably have a 2017 special, and it remains to be seen if McAuliffe will appoint a placeholder or someone who will actually try to hold the seat. And Democrats aren't good at winning off-off year elections in any case, 2013 was just a lucky break due to the shutdown and would have gone the other way if the election was held a week later due to Obamacare. Plus Warner's 2014 victory is actually bad news for Dems because of the margin, he was supposed to win by double digits but nearly lost. Had R's been aware of just how close Gillespie was and spent money on GOTV, they would have won. But everyone believed right up until an hour after polls closed that Warner was going to get a YUGE landslide even as the rest of the country voted for republicans. Virginia is a pure Toss-Up.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^Virginia will probably have a 2017 special, and it remains to be seen if McAuliffe will appoint a placeholder or someone who will actually try to hold the seat. And Democrats aren't good at winning off-off year elections in any case, 2013 was just a lucky break due to the shutdown and would have gone the other way if the election was held a week later due to Obamacare. Plus Warner's 2014 victory is actually bad news for Dems because of the margin, he was supposed to win by double digits but nearly lost. Had R's been aware of just how close Gillespie was and spent money on GOTV, they would have won. But everyone believed right up until an hour after polls closed that Warner was going to get a YUGE landslide even as the rest of the country voted for republicans. Virginia is a pure Toss-Up.

Assuming you're right, that puts Virginia in the middle or upper half of Tier 2 rather the the bottom. As for Warner, he survived even when the Dems overestimated his chanced big time. They'll learn from that and actually invest in VA in 2018. Still not safe, but also nowhere near what I'm calling Tier 1.

As for Maine though, what about the possibility of King being re-elected but changing his caucus? He went with the Dems in 2012 because they had a clear majority, I can imagine McConnell trying to convince King to join them if they already have a clear majority. He could also be the deciding vote in a Senate that was 48 Dems, 50 Republicans, him, and Sanders.

King is only going to switch if he's offered a committee chairmanship or something, and I'm not sure if R's want to do that. He does support ObamaCare, which is a huge negative for R's.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Because I'm an optimist, and plus it's way too early to know what turnout will be like and what the mood of the country will be:

But seriously, I know TNVol is foaming at the mouth at the possibility of getting rid of a liberal pro-choice women in a red state, but I really don't think McCaskill would go down easily. She's not a total lightweight like Blanche Lincoln like you want her to be.

It should be noted the GOP can still f**k up...big time.

You guys do realize Trump isn't going away? Which means you're going to have to find people who placate three factions in the party (Establishment, Conservatives, and Trumpers) or risk losing support from one group.  Trumpers are especially prone to saying dumb sh*t. There's a lot of opportunity for Republicans, but it could also go horribly wrong.

Trumpers stayed silent before Trump and will do so after Trump.