2018 Senatorial Elections

[Kingpoleon]

If Clinton wins:
Arizona: Lean R
California: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Hawaii: Likely D
Indiana: Lean R
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Likely D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Tilt/Lean D
Minnesota: Tossup/Tilt D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Tilt/Lean R
Montana: Tossup
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean R
New Jersey: Tilt/Lean D
New Mexico: Tilt/Lean D
New York: Likely D
North Dakota: Lean R
Ohio: Tossup/Tilt R
Pennsylvania: Tossup
Rhode Island: Likely D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R
Utah: Likely R
Vermont: Likely D
Virginia: Tossup/Tilt R
Washington: Tilt/Lean D
Wisconsin: Tossup
Wyoming: Safe R

Likely means watch the state, but probably Safe.

[Kingpoleon]

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.

B-b-but anything can happen in politics™

Apparently a lot of people in this thread think anything can happen in politics. Including a state that sees the Democrats as an anti-white hate group voting for a Democrat.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_West_Virginia,_2010
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2008

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_special_election,_2011
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2008

[Kingpoleon]

Those are definitely realistic scenarios, I wouldn't underestimate how awful 2018 can be for Democrats after they nearly maxed out the class last time.

B-b-but anything can happen in politics™

Apparently a lot of people in this thread think anything can happen in politics. Including a state that sees the Democrats as an anti-white hate group voting for a Democrat.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_West_Virginia,_2010
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2008

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_special_election,_2011
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2008

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alabama,_1992

Alabama = safe D!

6 elections in the past eight years =/= 1 election twenty four years ago

Richard Shelby =/= Jay Rockefeller, Joe Manchin, or Tomblin

Of nine statewide elections in the past eight years, the Democrats won six of them. They lost President in 2008 and 2012 and Senator in 2014.

Of the lower offices(SoS, AG, Treasurer, Auditor, and Agriculture Commissioner), Democrats have won 9/10 elections in the past eight years.

[Kingpoleon]

Got it. I mean, sure, 2006 was a landslide for Democrats and Pryor didn't have a GOP opponent, but who needs all the facts when you can cherry pick them?

[Kingpoleon]

Speaking of Arkansas 2014:

Even if he loses by 10 points it still wouldn't be a Blanching, considering she lost by like 23 points or something ridiculous.

[Pryor+2] is unreliable. But Harper, Vox Populi, and Larry Hogan's internals are proof of the incoming GOP landslide. #hack

It's a good thing Pryor outperformed Blanche Lincoln by 3%.

You're really good at calling in the midterms now solid R states that voted Democratic until 2000, aren't you?

[Kingpoleon]

You overestimated Pryor by ten points with a week left.

Let's not kid ourselves. 2018 is essentially a combination of guesses, recent political trends, and recent experience. That's because we are two years out.

My only point is this: your 2014 predictions were pretty off, and let's not try to pretend we know what will happen in 2018.

[Kingpoleon]

IceSpear is absolutely right, though. The idea that Manchin can get reelected in what will be the most anti-Clinton state is really cute. Lincoln Chafee lost in RI in 2006 despite having a 60%+ approval rating. Manchin's approval ratings will be way worse on election day. If the Republicans nominate a strong candidate like David McKinley, he's going to get Blanched.

I'm sure Manchin will be very afraid of an uncharismatic seventy-one year old.