2018 Senatorial Elections

[Heisenberg]

Here are my very early predictions: It depends on how you define "victorious." If you mean, which one will come out with a net gain, the Republicans, unless NV and/or AZ fall, and Democrats hold everything else (or lose only one of they pick up both southwest seats). If you're asking which party will have the majority, I'd say Republicans, so long as their losses this year aren't that bad. But anything can happen.

[Heisenberg]

I really hope McCaskill runs for reelection so that... a) this will be an easy Republican pickup and b) she finally gets the humiliation she deserves. But my guess is that she will probably retire.

And yeah, I mostly agree with Vosem's ratings, although I would move FL and ND to Tossup. I don't think Casey is necessarily weaker than Nelson and Heitkamp is not to be underestimated.

Totally agree on both parts. Small states (like ND) are where "retail politics" work. I'm scared Heitkamp becomes a lifer, 2018 is the best chance to defeat her. I would love to see lucky Claire run for reelection and get crushed, but I have heard rumors that she may not run.

[Heisenberg]

2 things: one, what's the deal with Ohio? And two, that map made me realize the position Nevada is in. For two cycles in a row it will be the one pickup opportunity for a party otherwise defending a ton of seats

I was extrapolating Ohio's R trend in this election to predict how it would behave in a Hillary midterm.

And Brown legislates like he represents a D+15 state when he represents an R+1 state. There are plenty of good, (relatively) moderate Republicans who can take him out. Word is that Kasich and friends are rallying behind Rep. Pat Tiberi.

[Heisenberg]

My early prediction.

Key races:
NV: Heller loses by 7 or so.
AZ: Flake holds by 5 (against whoever) in the general, wins the primary fairly comfortably.
UT: Romney and McMullin sit out, Hatch easily wins both the primary and general.
MT: Rosendale wins by 5, Olszewski by 2, anyone else (unlikely) loses by 4.
ND: Heitkamp wins by 8 against Cramer, 14 against Campbell, by 20 against Becker or Berg.
MN: Klobuchar wins by 12, as she tanks in MN-01, 06, and 07.
WI: Fitzgerald, Kleefisch or Hovde beat Baldwin by 1, any other nominee (far more likely) loses by 6.
MI: Robert Young, Randy Richardville, or Dan Benishek lose by 1 or 2, anyone else falls by 15 or more.
TX: Cruz wins by 11 or more despite all the hype.
FL: Scott pulls the unthinkable and wins by 1 after catching Nelson sleepwalking.
MO: Wagner wins by 12 (or Hawley by 4).
IN: Donnelly loses by 14 (probably more than O'Rourke) as the race is nationalized and Pence does a lot to help Messer (who'll probably win the primary).
OH: Mandel wins by 5 or 6 after easily winning the primary.
WV: Manchin loses by 11 against Jenkins (who should easily win his primary).
PA: Casey should win by 10 or so, but the GOP should get a good wave insurance candidate anyway.
NJ: Nothing to see, NJ voters don't care about corruption, they think it's no big deal.
ME: Even if RCV is struck down, King should be fine and win with room to breathe.

I'm assuming Trump's approval is -1 or 2 as Republicans "come home" and polarization remains historically high. I could very well be way off.

[Heisenberg]

Here's a hot take. The democratic incumbents in red states who won election/reelection in 2012 in an environment that was only slightly less polarized then 2016 aren't heavy underdogs in a year that will almost certainly be at least a decent D wave. Even bigger hot take. Republicans aren't going to knock out popular swing state incumbents in a midterm under a Republican president whos 20 points underwater nationwide.

Let's not pretend McCaskill, Donnelly, Tester, and even Manchin are super popular in their states. Even Manchin has moved left on a lot of things over the past few years (endorsing Hillary even after her coal comments, PP funding, etc.) and I imagine he's lost some support over that. He's not the same Manchin from 2012.

[Heisenberg]

^Shaheen? She's not up until 2020, there's no Senate race in New Hampshire next year.

[Heisenberg]

My updated prediction.

Predicted outcome, no tossups:

R+3. As you can see, I'm not feeling good about Arizona AT ALL. IF Flake steps aside and someone else (other than Ward) is the nominee, I can see it holding, but I really think Flake isn't electable anymore., he's really destroyed himself and has made enemies with just about everyone else. In Ohio, I have lost confidence in Mandel given how the last 2 weeks went, and, as much as I despise Brown, back to Tossup/Tilt D it goes. Bold prediction: FL votes to the right of AZ. It will be all about turning out and inspiring the bases. Flake will not, Scott will.

[Heisenberg]

Why do you have PA as Lean D, and why is WI Likely D?  Would WI change if Hovde or Vukmir got in?  Also you really believe Kid Rock makes it tossup in MI?

Pennsylvania: The real battle will be in southeast part of the state, since Casey and Barletta really cancel out each other's "bases" quite well (Northeast PA). Erie County (2016's best bellwether in PA) is another one to watch. I'd say Casey is favored right now, but Barletta definitely has a path forward.

Wisconsin: Hovde, Fitzgerald, (or Kleefisch or Duffy if they pulled a Gardner) would move Wisconsin to the right. Hovde seems like the best, the other three I said may be able to hitch on to Walker and narrowly win, but it'll be tougher since Hovde has the "Johnson/Trump" factor in him (outsider businessman). What exactly is so great about Vukmir? I never got her statewide appeal? She strikes me as tailor made for the WOW area/Milwaukee suburbs. I can see her run for and win WI-05 whenever Sensenbrenner hangs it up (which may not be a while), but she probably underperforms in the western part of the state. Keep in mind that WI-03 and WI-07 are VERY elastic, and have a long progressive, populist, and even pacifist tradition (they have changed a little, but still). The WI-05/WI-06 playbook does not work in WI-03 and WI-07. Nicholson, who seems like a Tom Cotton-type, would probably be toxic. I don't know too much about Vukmir, but she seems too anonymous to really hitch on to Walker, and also, has't she underperformed in her deep red State Senate district? I think Vukmir is a paper tiger.
 
Kid Rock could win by 2 (or a little more), or lose by 20 (or a little more). No in between. He has a path to victory, something most "generic Republicans" don't have. He has been doing well in early polls, which may mean nothing, but tossup until further notice, I have to wait and see.

[Heisenberg]

Alright, one last question, Barletta should clear the primary rather well yes?

Probably. There are four others (semmingly) serious Republicans running, here's a little rundown of what I've picked up:
Rick Saccone: State Rep. from the Pittsburgh area. He's one out of 203(!) in the State House, so his constituency is tiny, and he's not well known to the voter-rich eastern parts of the state. From a Trumpy area, but it's an area that's losing population relative to the state, and therefore also losing influence. Generic R, I guess, will probably just drop down and run for reelection instead. The next two options up, State Senate and US House, both have GOP incumbents running again, so he'll probably just wait.
Jim Christiana: See above.
Jeff Bartos: He's trying to strike a Trumpy tone, it seems, borrowing a few liens (such as "our jobs are disappearing," "end destructive trade deals" and "secure our borders," as well as emphasizing his business background. He will have to explain his past support for Kerry, Obama, and the DSCC to voters, though, if he wants to be serious.
Paul Addis: Another mavericky businessman who touts his outsider business background, but his similarities with Trump and Bartos stop there. He's been openly critical of Trump for the most part, so he'll have a base with #NeverTrumpers.

I think Saccone, Christiana, and Bartos will all drop out soon and endorse Barletta, he's way stronger and all four seem like their bases would overlap. Addis, I'm not so sure, but if he does I think Barletta will win due to his name recognition, connections to donors, and he'll probably get endorsements groups like the NRA and NRLC pretty soon. Personally, I hope one of the others (probably Bartos or Addis, due to their profile) runs for Governor instead. I'm not too impressed with Scott Wagner and no other big candidate has stepped in yet.

[Heisenberg]

Alright, and I tend to agree with you on Wagner, i'd like someone else (please god can Dent run), could Turzai possibly be a good candidate?

Dent would get absolutely crushed. The guy called his own party stupid for their stance on abortion. If he somehow won the nomination, the base would stay home or vote for a Third Party right wing candidate.

Totally agree, especially the bolded part. I think Dent would lose to Wagner in the primary for sure. This whole Atlas meme of super moderate candidates being invincible is so overrated. They really don't understand the electorate.

[Heisenberg]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

I would definitely swap ND and MO.
To answer your question about who should run for Governor, I think either Mike Turzai or Jake Corman would be good.