2018 Senatorial Elections

[Dr. MB]

Alabama: Safe R
Arizona: Tossup
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean D
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Tossup
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Lean D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Tossup
Montana: Tossup
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Tossup
New Jersey: Lean D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup
Ohio: Tossup
Pennsylvania: Tossup
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R
Utah: Likely R (Depends on whether 3rd party candidate emerges)
Vermont: Safe I (unless Bernie runs as a Democrat)
Virginia: Likely D
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Likely D
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R

[Dr. MB]

Safe D
WA, CA, HI, NM, MN (regular), VA, MD, DE, NY, MA, CT, RI, VT

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

Lean D
ND, IN, WV, FL, OH

Tossup
MO, AZ, UT

Lean R
TN, TX

Likely R
MS

Safe R
NE, WY, UT

[Dr. MB]

2/19/2018

Safe D - WA, CA, HI, NM, WV, VA, PA, NY, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD

Likely D - MT, MN1, MN2, WI, MI, IN, OH, FL,

Safe R - UT, WY, NE, TX, MS

Likely R - MO, TN

Tossup - NV (Pure tossup, though I'd say the GOP pulls it out. I expect Tarkanian/Rosen)

Tossup - AZ (Many interesting possible combinations here, but I think it goes blue as the youth and anti-Trump Blue Wave goes into effect. I call Arpaio vs. Sinema)

Tossup - ND (I think incumbent's advantage puts Heitkamp over the edge on road to a possible 2020 campaign)

Don't really see how MO's anything more than a tossup or tilt R.

[Dr. MB]

Likely D
ME, NJ, PA, MI, MT, MN (special)

If MT is Likely D, all the other states are almost certainly Safe D IMO. Tester is a pretty strong incumbent, but he’s not THAT strong/popular and MT is not THAT Democratic down-ballot.

It’s just that the GOP hasn’t put up too strong of a candidate, and I don’t really see him losing this year, where I could see Donnelly or McCaskill, or even Heitkamp losing.