2018 Senatorial Elections

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My early prediction.

Unsurprisingly, I agree with you 100%. I know this looks like a really Republican-friendly prediction, but it's not that far-fetched. The only "bold" prediction on this map is FL.

My early prediction, including the obvious comments and #hottakes:

Democratic gains

NV (Lean D): Heller is a weak incumbent in a state trending away from his party. He only barely eked out a win in 2012 because the Democrats nominated Shelley Berkley. Heller won't get that lucky this time, and blue states really don't split their tickets anymore or care whether the Republican candidate is an incumbent or not.  D+1, Heller loses by 4 or 5 points. (If he actually distances himself from Trump like Kirk and Ayotte, expect something like a 8- to 10-point loss here.)

Republican gains

IN (Likely R): I don't see how Donnelly wins. The Republicans running here are probably a bit overrated, but given this astonishingly high level of polarization even someone like Messer should be able to win fairly easily. R+1, Donnelly loses by 12 points to Messer or something like 8-10 points to Rokita.

MO (Likely R): This race has been discussed ad nauseam, so any further comments are probably unnecessary. The only thing worth pointing out is that I believe Wagner would do much better in MO-02 and the more suburban areas in the general than Hawley, but maybe she'd do slightly worse than Hawley in the rural areas. Anyway, R+1, Wagner wins by 13 points, Hawley by 10 points. FTR, right now I believe Hawley will be the nominee.

MT (Tossup): While most Democrats think that Tester is heavily favored, I think the GOP can definitely win here. Both Rosendale and Olszewski would be fairly good candidates IMO, and I could also see Troy Downing doing well if he actually wins the nomination (doubtful, but he's kind of a wildcard). Democrats creating an aura of inevitability around Tester doesn't help them either, honestly. MT also has a fairly high Republican floor, and Eastern MT likely won't be as friendly to Tester next year as it was in 2012.  R+1, Rosendale wins by 6 and Olszewski by 4 or 5.

WV (Tossup): This race is tough to predict, and Jenkins might be a bit overrated. I think WV is a Tossup, but if Trump can get his supporters out in record numbers on election day (and I assume he'll be campaigning for Rs here), I think this seat will flip. R+1, Jenkins wins by 8 or 9 or so. (I could totally see Manchin winning as well, though)

OH (Tilt R): Brown is in big trouble, obviously. OH has an incredibly high Republican floor, especially in midterm years. Brown can win if he plays his cards right, but in the end I think some combination of Mandel doing better than expected in the Republican suburbs, crushing it in the traditionally Republican rural areas and outperforming his 2012 showing in the WWC areas by quite a bit should put him over the top. R+1, Mandel wins by 6 or 7.

FL (Tossup): Scott winning here is my bold prediction. Jimmie hinted at this already, I think Nelson is a remnant of the past and might be out of step with the times and his electorate, if you know what I mean. I know polls are showing a Nelson landslide right now, but I wouldn't underestimate Scott (especially if polling underestimates Republican support among White suburbanites and Working-class "Trumpist" voters again). R+1, Scott barely ekes it out by 1 or less. If Morgan is the Democratic nominee for governor, Scott might actually do better than if Graham wins the D primary.

Democratic holds

WI (Lean D): Baldwin is a good fit for swingy WI and isn't dumb enough to move to the center to win reelection. If she loses, it will be a sign that WI is moving away from the Democrats at a very fast pace. Unless someone like Hovde runs, I think she'll do very well in WI-03 and WI-07, and that should be enough, even if Walker wins reelection. D Hold, Baldwin wins by 4 or 5 points.

MI (Lean D): Stabenow should be fine, but like I've said several times before... 85% chance this race is a blowout and 15% chance it goes down to the wire. No in between. Right now, I assume the former will happen, but the race could get interesting if the GOP nominates the right candidate (and not just a generic conservative Republican).D Hold, Stabenow wins by 12 points.

ND (Lean D): I moved this from Likely to Lean D today. I still think Heitkamp is heavily favored to win, but you never know. Pretty sure that this seat only flips after IN, MO, MT, WV, FL, OH and maybe WI or MI, though. D Hold, Heitkamp beats Cramer by 5, Campbell by 12, Becker by 16 and Berg by 22. If she can win in 2018, this seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

PA (Likely D): Casey underperformed in 2012, but he should be fine in 2018. Pennsylvania is still fairly Democratic downballot. I agree that the GOP should put up a good wave insurance candidate, though. D Hold, Casey wins by 8 points.

ME (Likely D): King should be fine, but he will probably lose a few counties in ME-02 this time around. D Hold, King wins by 9.

Republican holds

AZ (Likely R): Flake is a bit underestimated IMO. I think he wins the primary much easier than expected and then goes on to win the general by 7 or so. Synema is - just like Kirkpatrick - way overrated (I actually think Carmona might be the strongest Democrat). R Hold.

TX (Likely R): O'Rourke will make it closer than it should be, but I think Cruz wins by 9 on election day, give or take 1 or 2 points. Things could get really ugly for Cruz in 2024, though. R Hold.

UT (Likely R): I am a bit worried about this race, but Hatch will probably be fine in the end. R Hold.

Just one question here, about WI.  I assume you're saying Hovde would be a good candidate, why exactly?

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My Ratings as of 6/21/17





Added light pink as Tilt D.


Apologies if it looks weird, first time creating and posting a map.

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My Ratings as of 6/21/17





Added light pink as Tilt D.


Apologies if it looks weird, first time creating and posting a map.

Yes, this looks very reasonable. I agree with virtually all of it except maybe NV (should be a bit more D-friendly), VA (Kaine is beyond safe) and maybe I would move IN/FL/MI a bit to the right, but that is debatable.

But this is a good snapshot of where the races stand at this point in time.

Can see your point on FL and IN, FL Scott should move it to tossup once he jumps in and really starts campaigning, and with IN once a good candidate jumps in it'll move to likely R.  But I want to hear your reasoning on why MI should be less favorable to Stabenow, to my understanding she's an entrenched incumbent and won her last 2 elections by at least 15 points, that makes me put it at likely D, does she have a strong challenger or are her approval ratings failing?

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. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

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. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

YOU ARE A REPUBLICAN HACK!

Kek.

Off topic from this impossibility, why do you think Stabenow is in a bad enough position to be lean D?  I don't really see how she's any worse off than likely D, unless she's got a strong challenger.

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Look, how about instead of attacking eachother's predictions we post what we believe the ratings are and how they will go and see how they hold up to the actual results? 

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I'm going to assume you have Ward primarying Flake here?

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Dear god this is ridiculous.

STOP FIGHTING AND JUST MAKE A PREDICTION!!

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My updated prediction.

Predicted outcome, no tossups:

R+3. As you can see, I'm not feeling good about Arizona AT ALL. IF Flake steps aside and someone else (other than Ward) is the nominee, I can see it holding, but I really think Flake isn't electable anymore., he's really destroyed himself and has made enemies with just about everyone else. In Ohio, I have lost confidence in Mandel given how the last 2 weeks went, and, as much as I despise Brown, back to Tossup/Tilt D it goes. Bold prediction: FL votes to the right of AZ. It will be all about turning out and inspiring the bases. Flake will not, Scott will.

Why do you have PA as Lean D, and why is WI Likely D?  Would WI change if Hovde or Vukmir got in?  Also you really believe Kid Rock makes it tossup in MI?

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Why do you have PA as Lean D, and why is WI Likely D?  Would WI change if Hovde or Vukmir got in?  Also you really believe Kid Rock makes it tossup in MI?

Pennsylvania: The real battle will be in southeast part of the state, since Casey and Barletta really cancel out each other's "bases" quite well (Northeast PA). Erie County (2016's best bellwether in PA) is another one to watch. I'd say Casey is favored right now, but Barletta definitely has a path forward.

Wisconsin: Hovde, Fitzgerald, (or Kleefisch or Duffy if they pulled a Gardner) would move Wisconsin to the right. Hovde seems like the best, the other three I said may be able to hitch on to Walker and narrowly win, but it'll be tougher since Hovde has the "Johnson/Trump" factor in him (outsider businessman). What exactly is so great about Vukmir? I never got her statewide appeal? She strikes me as tailor made for the WOW area/Milwaukee suburbs. I can see her run for and win WI-05 whenever Sensenbrenner hangs it up (which may not be a while), but she probably underperforms in the western part of the state. Keep in mind that WI-03 and WI-07 are VERY elastic, and have a long progressive, populist, and even pacifist tradition (they have changed a little, but still). The WI-05/WI-06 playbook does not work in WI-03 and WI-07. Nicholson, who seems like a Tom Cotton-type, would probably be toxic. I don't know too much about Vukmir, but she seems too anonymous to really hitch on to Walker, and also, has't she underperformed in her deep red State Senate district? I think Vukmir is a paper tiger.
 
Kid Rock could win by 2 (or a little more), or lose by 20 (or a little more). No in between. He has a path to victory, something most "generic Republicans" don't have. He has been doing well in early polls, which may mean nothing, but tossup until further notice, I have to wait and see.

Alright, one last question, Barletta should clear the primary rather well yes?

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Alright, one last question, Barletta should clear the primary rather well yes?

Probably. There are four others (semmingly) serious Republicans running, here's a little rundown of what I've picked up:
Rick Saccone: State Rep. from the Pittsburgh area. He's one out of 203(!) in the State House, so his constituency is tiny, and he's not well known to the voter-rich eastern parts of the state. From a Trumpy area, but it's an area that's losing population relative to the state, and therefore also losing influence. Generic R, I guess, will probably just drop down and run for reelection instead. The next two options up, State Senate and US House, both have GOP incumbents running again, so he'll probably just wait.
Jim Christiana: See above.
Jeff Bartos: He's trying to strike a Trumpy tone, it seems, borrowing a few liens (such as "our jobs are disappearing," "end destructive trade deals" and "secure our borders," as well as emphasizing his business background. He will have to explain his past support for Kerry, Obama, and the DSCC to voters, though, if he wants to be serious.
Paul Addis: Another mavericky businessman who touts his outsider business background, but his similarities with Trump and Bartos stop there. He's been openly critical of Trump for the most part, so he'll have a base with #NeverTrumpers.

I think Saccone, Christiana, and Bartos will all drop out soon and endorse Barletta, he's way stronger and all four seem like their bases would overlap. Addis, I'm not so sure, but if he does I think Barletta will win due to his name recognition, connections to donors, and he'll probably get endorsements groups like the NRA and NRLC pretty soon. Personally, I hope one of the others (probably Bartos or Addis, due to their profile) runs for Governor instead. I'm not too impressed with Scott Wagner and no other big candidate has stepped in yet.

Alright, and I tend to agree with you on Wagner, i'd like someone else (please god can Dent run), could Turzai possibly be a good candidate?

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Alright, and I tend to agree with you on Wagner, i'd like someone else (please god can Dent run), could Turzai possibly be a good candidate?

Dent would get absolutely crushed. The guy called his own party stupid for their stance on abortion. If he somehow won the nomination, the base would stay home or vote for a Third Party right wing candidate.

Totally agree, especially the bolded part. I think Dent would lose to Wagner in the primary for sure. This whole Atlas meme of super moderate candidates being invincible is so overrated. They really don't understand the electorate.

Well I didn't know he did that, that'd kill him in the primary and GE.  So who would be a better candidate than Wagner?

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I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
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Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

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I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
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Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

I would definitely swap ND and MO.
To answer your question about who should run for Governor, I think either Mike Turzai or Jake Corman would be good.

Thank you for that answer.

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Just swap ND for MO and that's a good prediction, ND is at least Lean D.

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As of 8/17/17

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As of 8/17/17

I'd say Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Florida are at least tilt-D.

Fair.

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As of 9/8/17

Notes:

IN is Tilt R instead of Lean R
In CA the Seat itself is Safe D, but the Primary is Lean Feinstein
FL would be Tilt D without Rick Scott, but he's gonna run so it's tossup

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For me it's this map but

AZ = Tossup
NV = Tossup
UT = Safe R
ND = Lean D
MO = Lean R
IN = Tilt R
WI = Tossup
MI = Lean D
AL = Likely R


I'm not 100% sure on PA being Tilt D, but I'll cede to MT on it being that.  (I assume you have Barletta being the nom yes?)