2018 Senatorial Elections

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN

The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.

They underperfomed by a large number of points. Most Clinton republicans are staying blue.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

If Trump keeps up, don't be surprised if you see this map.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN

The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.

They underperfomed by a large number of points. Most Clinton republicans are staying blue.

I like how he conveniently ignored how Ossoff retained most of the Romney-Clinton voters while ignoring how many Trump voters that James Thompson, Quist, and Parnell presumably got

What?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

If Trump keeps up, don't be surprised if you see this map.

...with Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas voting Democrat? Nope.

A R+5 state, a state with a possibly ineffective nominee, and a state which had a democrat senator 5 years ago. All obviously impossible to win even in a landslide.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN

The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.

They underperfomed by a large number of points. Most Clinton republicans are staying blue.

LOL, from a "Clinton Republican," this is bullshlt.

Look at Georgia.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I think most people are vastly underestimating just how unpopular trump will be. This is if his popularity falls all of three points

4 democratic pickups, with 6 being quite possible.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I think most people are vastly underestimating just how unpopular trump will be. This is if his popularity falls all of three points

4 democratic pickups, with 6 being quite possible.

Alaska doesn't have a Senate race in 2018.

I couldn't figure out a way to do 2 in Arizona. Alaska represent the Arizona special election.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

DEM Pickups: NV
GOP Pickups: MO, IN, ND, OH, WV, MT, WI

Net: R+6 (58-42 GOP)

I really want 60 seats, and the map realistically should get us there except for the potentially unfavorable climate.  Florida and Wisconsin should be very, very close, either way.

Also, Flake goes down to Ward in a primary, but Ward beats Sinema in the general (Sinema is easily more radical than Ward, by the way).

Sinema is one of the most moderate democrats. She's literally a blue dog.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

Alabama is not Solid R. I'd put it as Lean at most.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Why is Wyoming the only safe R seat? And why is Alabama a tossup? More importantly, why is Missouri NOT at least a tossup?

In polling, Alabama is a statistical tie.