2018 Senatorial Elections

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Assuming Dems net 50 seats and over and Clinton prez, I am assuming Heikamp and Tester will be defeated.  Assuming Ross runs for Gov and Kate Marshall runs against Heller, this is a decent map assuming Paul Ryan is still Speaker having 232 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Charlie Baker and Elizabeth Warren will be reelected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

dream map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

dream map

If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

Yes, these are rural areas aside from IN, who was the most hostile towards Clinton, Tester, Manchin and McCaskill have high approvals for incumbants

As for the GOP incumbants Flake, Heller and Cruz, the Latino corridor of IL,CA, CO, NV, NM, NY and NJ all voted for Clinton in 2016 and will be friendly again for reapportionment in 2020 eventhough, the new map won't take effect until latter.

And AZ is a Clinton friendly state. TX is a special case, but a Latino sunbelt state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

dream map



This scenario is more possible now, since Trump effect will affect the races 2017 and 2018; but this is my dream map with Dems sweeping the House and Govs mansions and impeachment is underway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems if they run a decent candidate can win a competetive race against either Ward or Flake

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As of now...

In an anti Trump environment McCaskill will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Trump approvals, the GOP will net a seat or two in Senate. Dems will have bragging rights in Gov races and House can change parties, but 2020 is good too to have a D majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IN tilts GOP, and Dems win TN, AZ and NV