Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 06, 2019, 10:48:42 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI  (Read 3661 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 26, 2016, 09:35:11 am »









http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll-florida-north-carolina-wisconsin-colorado-battleground-states
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2016, 09:38:20 am »

Full results with 3rd party candidates:



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/26/battleground-colorado-florida-north-carolina-wisco
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2016, 09:38:46 am »

+2 in North Carolina and +3 in Florida are really good results

+5 in Wisconsin is a little low. I believe the Marquette Poll with Clinton +9 a lot more (they know their state almost perfectly)

+1 in Colorado is a bit of a bummer
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,518
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2016, 09:41:46 am »

I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2016, 09:42:40 am »

I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.

Previous polls in CO had her down by 10, so +1 is definitely an improvement for her.
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2016, 09:49:41 am »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html
RCP was Obama +5.5 in 2008, he ended up 9.0 in Colorado.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
RCP was Obama +1.5 in 2012, he ended up +5.5. Seems like problem polling Hispanics.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ldeqlewqgu/CO_ForRelease_20160626.pdf
Page 20 question 8, Clinton gets 30% of 18-29 and Trump gets 33% LOL.

She gets 37% of whites to 42% for Trump (Romney won by 10).
Logged
/
darthebearnc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,376
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2016, 09:50:44 am »

lol CO
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2016, 10:13:05 am »

It's hard to imagine a world where Clinton is up ~7 points nationally, and up 1 in CO or up only 5 in WI.  And I don't think you can really blame RV/LV split, because from what we've seen from polls that have given us both RV and LV results, there is little-to-no Repub LV advantage this year. 

I know she's not a great fit for CO, but neither is Trump.  We have seen Dems well overperform their polling in CO and NV, so that could be going on.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2016, 10:16:21 am »

It's hard to imagine a world where Clinton is up ~7 points nationally, and up 1 in CO or up only 5 in WI.  And I don't think you can really blame RV/LV split, because from what we've seen from polls that have given us both RV and LV results, there is little-to-no Repub LV advantage this year. 

I know she's not a great fit for CO, but neither is Trump.  We have seen Dems well overperform their polling in CO and NV, so that could be going on.

You guys are forgetting the MoE: Clinton could be leading by 9 in WI right now (which is what Marquette showed). I think she's eventually favoured in CO as well (it usually underpolls for the Dem. candidate). But in general, all these state polls recently match up with a 5-6% national lead ... and not a 12-point lead (like that garbage WaPo poll says).
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,367
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2016, 10:16:54 am »

Boom! Considering the fact that Big Don had some tough weeks, he's doing really well. TRUMP is anything but finished.

I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.

I remember some polls last year, in which all GOPers lead Hilldog by large margins. I'll give TRUMP a 60% chance to win the mountain state and its 9 electoral votes in November.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2016, 10:24:46 am »

+1 in Colorado, while +2 in NC?

smh smh smh YouGov.
Logged
JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,646


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2016, 10:32:42 am »

The unskew is strong in this thread.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,669
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2016, 10:37:58 am »

Seems a bit friendly to Trump in CO/WI, and a bit friendly to Clinton in NC. Still, good to actually have some numbers to work with.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,231
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2016, 10:39:41 am »

The unskew is strong in this thread.

Bill and Hillary combined have only won the state once, so it's possible CO is less favorable to her, but  it is true that Colorado polling has underestimated Democratic support for years, most likely because of the Hispanic population.

Also did they poll senate races in these states?
Logged
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,310


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2016, 10:57:57 am »

Lots of undecideds in these polls.  21% undecided in Colorado?  Wonder how many are Sanders children saying they won't vote for either.  Sanders won Colorado 60-40.
Logged
Higgs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,584


Political Matrix
E: 6.14, S: -4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2016, 11:44:01 am »

I thought they did a national poll too?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,513
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2016, 12:45:20 pm »

If Democrats get the Hispanic vote out in Colorado and Nevada, they win. Big.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2016, 12:53:38 pm »

Boom! Considering the fact that Big Don had some tough weeks, he's doing really well. TRUMP is anything but finished.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,822
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2016, 01:05:55 pm »

Considering YouGov's in house bias against Clinton, these are very good polls.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,420
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2016, 01:41:11 pm »

Any poll with >10% undecideds is really worthless. We're within four months of the election, they need to start pushing the undecideds a bit more--either could have 5-10 point leads in those states for all we know with the information we have.
Logged
Cruzcrew
Paleocon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2016, 02:14:19 pm »

The NC sample seems too Democratic with a D+5(47-42) sample for what party they're registered in.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,899
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2016, 05:38:02 pm »

The Clintons have never been popular in Colorado, so I don't find that too hard to believe.

I'm surprised by how poorly Johnson and Stein are doing in these polls compared to the national ones.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,728
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2016, 05:59:59 pm »

Boom! Considering the fact that Big Don had some tough weeks, he's doing really well. TRUMP is anything but finished.

I don't really see how trailing in a state Romney won can be considered "doing well", unless your standards are extremely low.

He's not finished of course, but that's because it's June.
Logged
anthony1691
anty1691
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 367


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2016, 06:04:08 pm »

I'm surprised by how poorly Johnson and Stein are doing in these polls compared to the national ones.
I've been wondering about this as well, where are they picking up their support from?
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC