Could the 3rd parties find success in the 2016 UK election?

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I wouldn't count out UKIP tbh. I think a majority of Leave voters believe that (at the very least) we won't be in the common movement of people area and a significant amount believe that this is a mandate for cuts to immigration wholesale. If Boris goes back on his pledge or somehow the Tories end up nominating a wet like Hunt then there will be anger, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 20 or so kippers.