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  Ballotpedia: Clinton way ahead in battlegrounds (FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA)
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Author Topic: Ballotpedia: Clinton way ahead in battlegrounds (FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA)  (Read 3583 times)
psychprofessor
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« on: June 29, 2016, 06:37:58 am »
« edited: June 29, 2016, 10:18:40 am by psychprofessor »

According to CNN:

51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2016, 06:40:53 am »

Iowa and Virginia are believable.
The rest not so much.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2016, 06:43:16 am »

Quote
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Never heard of that pollster ...

Some results look OK, others crappy (such as Florida, NC, PA etc).
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Icefire9
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2016, 06:44:54 am »

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2016, 06:46:16 am »

Apparently Kasich would lose Florida and North Carolina while winning Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio. And Iowa is 10 points more Republican than Florida and Pennsylvania, apparently.

https://ballotpedia.org/Polling

Roll Eyes
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2016, 06:46:27 am »

With Johnson:

Image Link
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2016, 06:52:05 am »

https://ballotpedia.org/Polling
They'll have a Q and A at 12:30PM
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2016, 06:55:23 am »

Wow, those numbers would be in line with the Washington Post poll. I don't think they're accurate though. Clinton does lead in all of them (NC too) but not by that much
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2016, 07:06:03 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 34%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2016, 07:07:50 am »

New Poll: Iowa President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 38%, R: 36%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2016, 07:09:13 am »

New Poll: Michigan President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 30%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2016, 07:10:49 am »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 44%, R: 37%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2016, 07:10:49 am »

Would be amazing, but no.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2016, 07:12:03 am »

New Poll: Ohio President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 41%, R: 34%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2016, 07:13:17 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 46%, R: 32%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2016, 07:14:12 am »

New Poll: Virginia President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 43%, R: 35%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2016, 07:54:31 am »

Excellent News!
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Dumbo
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« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2016, 08:17:56 am »

If Clinton wins Nevada, Florida, Michigan, Trump must win Ohio, Penns.,
Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa.

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2016, 09:27:34 am »

LOL. The Trumpster is in big trouble. I think he’ll lose all of these states. His campaign will go down in flames on election day.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2016, 09:31:09 am »

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4


It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

It is also consistent with CNN hiring a pollster that doesn't have an idea of what it is doing.

Michigan at D+17, Pennsylvania at D+14, and Virginia at D+7 are not far out of range of the 2008 election. I've seen some horrible polls for Trump in Florida; in a wave election what looks like an outlier could be a reality.

But even significant cutbacks of some of these results (let us say Florida to D+4, North Carolina to D+2, and Ohio to D+3 suggest one thing: Donald Trump is not going to be President of the United States. Michigan at D+17 indicates about a 55-45 margin for Hillary Clinton in a nationwide race.  
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2016, 09:57:32 am »

Wow... those are some really trashy polls. Absolute garbage.

The IA poll catches my eye, though. I have always believed that IA might be the first state to flip to the Republicans in a close and competitive race.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2016, 10:00:18 am »

Wow... those are some really trashy polls. Absolute garbage.

The IA poll catches my eye, though. I have always believed that IA might be the first state to flip to the Republicans in a close and competitive race.

CNN is actually not a trash pollster. I doubt the Trumpster will lose these states by these margins, but he will lose them all.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2016, 10:01:52 am »

Wow... those are some really trashy polls. Absolute garbage.

The IA poll catches my eye, though. I have always believed that IA might be the first state to flip to the Republicans in a close and competitive race.

CNN is actually not a trash pollster. I doubt the Trumpster will lose these states by these margins, but he will lose them all.

CNN had nothing to do with these polls.

They only reported them ...
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Icefire9
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« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2016, 10:08:05 am »

Yeah.  Its Ballotpedia.  Maybe Atlas should start conducting polls, I'm sure we'll do just as well as they did.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #24 on: June 29, 2016, 10:08:48 am »

Yeah.  Its Ballotpedia.  Maybe Atlas should start conducting polls, I'm sure we'll do just as well as they did.
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