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Author Topic: Ballotpedia: Clinton way ahead in battlegrounds (FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA)  (Read 3202 times)
psychprofessor
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« on: June 29, 2016, 06:37:58 am »

According to CNN:

51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 10:18:40 am by psychprofessor »Logged
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2016, 06:40:53 am »

Iowa and Virginia are believable.
The rest not so much.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2016, 06:43:16 am »

Quote
Interviews were conducted by Opinion Access Corporation of Long Island City, New York. Since 1995, Opinion Access Corp. has been an industry leader in telephone opinion polling with an emphasis on political polling. Their facility utilizes more than 375 stations and uses 100% computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI).

Never heard of that pollster ...

Some results look OK, others crappy (such as Florida, NC, PA etc).
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2016, 06:44:54 am »

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2016, 06:46:16 am »

Apparently Kasich would lose Florida and North Carolina while winning Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio. And Iowa is 10 points more Republican than Florida and Pennsylvania, apparently.

https://ballotpedia.org/Polling

Roll Eyes
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2016, 06:46:27 am »

With Johnson:

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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2016, 06:52:05 am »

https://ballotpedia.org/Polling
They'll have a Q and A at 12:30PM
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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2016, 06:55:23 am »

Wow, those numbers would be in line with the Washington Post poll. I don't think they're accurate though. Clinton does lead in all of them (NC too) but not by that much
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« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2016, 07:06:03 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 34%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2016, 07:07:50 am »

New Poll: Iowa President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 38%, R: 36%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2016, 07:09:13 am »

New Poll: Michigan President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 30%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2016, 07:10:49 am »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 44%, R: 37%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2016, 07:10:49 am »

Would be amazing, but no.
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« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2016, 07:12:03 am »

New Poll: Ohio President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 41%, R: 34%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2016, 07:13:17 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 46%, R: 32%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2016, 07:14:12 am »

New Poll: Virginia President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22

Summary: D: 43%, R: 35%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2016, 07:54:31 am »

Excellent News!
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« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2016, 08:17:56 am »

If Clinton wins Nevada, Florida, Michigan, Trump must win Ohio, Penns.,
Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa.

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2016, 09:27:34 am »

LOL. The Trumpster is in big trouble. I think he’ll lose all of these states. His campaign will go down in flames on election day.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2016, 09:31:09 am »

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4


It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

It is also consistent with CNN hiring a pollster that doesn't have an idea of what it is doing.

Michigan at D+17, Pennsylvania at D+14, and Virginia at D+7 are not far out of range of the 2008 election. I've seen some horrible polls for Trump in Florida; in a wave election what looks like an outlier could be a reality.

But even significant cutbacks of some of these results (let us say Florida to D+4, North Carolina to D+2, and Ohio to D+3 suggest one thing: Donald Trump is not going to be President of the United States. Michigan at D+17 indicates about a 55-45 margin for Hillary Clinton in a nationwide race.  
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« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2016, 09:57:32 am »

Wow... those are some really trashy polls. Absolute garbage.

The IA poll catches my eye, though. I have always believed that IA might be the first state to flip to the Republicans in a close and competitive race.
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« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2016, 10:00:18 am »

Wow... those are some really trashy polls. Absolute garbage.

The IA poll catches my eye, though. I have always believed that IA might be the first state to flip to the Republicans in a close and competitive race.

CNN is actually not a trash pollster. I doubt the Trumpster will lose these states by these margins, but he will lose them all.
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« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2016, 10:01:52 am »

Wow... those are some really trashy polls. Absolute garbage.

The IA poll catches my eye, though. I have always believed that IA might be the first state to flip to the Republicans in a close and competitive race.

CNN is actually not a trash pollster. I doubt the Trumpster will lose these states by these margins, but he will lose them all.

CNN had nothing to do with these polls.

They only reported them ...
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Icefire9
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« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2016, 10:08:05 am »

Yeah.  Its Ballotpedia.  Maybe Atlas should start conducting polls, I'm sure we'll do just as well as they did.
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« Reply #24 on: June 29, 2016, 10:08:48 am »

Yeah.  Its Ballotpedia.  Maybe Atlas should start conducting polls, I'm sure we'll do just as well as they did.
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