NBC / Survey Monkey: Clinton + 8 nationally, +6 with Johnson/Stein

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-widens-lead-over-donald-trump-nbc-poll-n599786?cid=sm_tw&hootPostID=ae180736770eb4aa726be0c3f0b83158

Without 3rd parties: Clinton - 49 Trump - 41

With 3rd parties: Clinton - 42 Trump - 36 ( can't seem to find 3rd party numbers)??

[dspNY]

The poll with third parties is

Clinton 42
Trump 36
Johnson 9
Stein 5

[Gass3268]

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So much for younger millennials being more Republican than older millennials.

[Virginiá]

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So much for younger millennials being more Republican than older millennials.

In all fairness, this is Trump we are talking about. Young people hate him. This election is going to be hard on electoral trends analysis, as an awful guy like Trump may turn people against himself/the GOP short-term purely based on a large repudiation of him, masking the actual trends occurring below the surface.

Or it could turn out that Trump will have single-handily reversed any pro-Republican trends in the youngest demographic cohorts. At this point, who knows.

[Gass3268]

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So much for younger millennials being more Republican than older millennials.

In all fairness, this is Trump we are talking about. Young people hate him. This election is going to be hard on electoral trends analysis, as an awful guy like Trump may turn people against himself/the GOP short-term purely based on a large repudiation of him, masking the actual trends occurring below the surface.

Or it could turn out that Trump will have single-handily reversed any pro-Republican trends in the youngest demographic cohorts. At this point, who knows.

Most political science studies suggest this point will be the case. Studies have shown that those who vote for the same party 3 cycles in a row will be locked to that party for the rest of their lives (baring major changes). Most people form their lifelong political view points during their teens and twenties. So  to most young folks voting for the first time this cycle, Donald Trump is to them as George W. Bush was to my voting cohort. Therefore it is entirely possible that Trump will push younger millennials to be just as Democratic as older millennials.

[MT Treasurer]

These national polls suggest that virtually every swing state will vote to the right of the nation as a whole. Strange.

[Tender Branson]

These national polls suggest that virtually every swing state will vote to the right of the nation as a whole. Strange.

Not if you factor in the margin of error. In this case, the swing states vote exactly like the nation, which is what they should do, because they are ... swing states.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

But but but!!!!! Trump's Brexit boost!!!!!!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

But but but!!!!! Trump's Brexit boost!!!!!!

I think we have to face the fact that Clinton is... well... actually running a very effective GE campaign so far. I love her to death, but I can admit that her campaigns 'til now have never really seemed 100% on-the-ball in terms of messaging or strategy. Lately, she seems so focused and her campaign rapidly responds to new developments on the trail that's I'm feeling really optimistic and energized.

Put her against a Republican rival/bully and she's fantastic.

[Holmes]

These national polls suggest that virtually every swing state will vote to the right of the nation as a whole. Strange.

Not if you factor in the margin of error. In this case, the swing states vote exactly like the nation, which is what they should do, because they are ... swing states.

That might explain one or two or three polls but not EVERY poll. FL and WI are the only swing states where Clinton has a solid lead.

Could be the Hispanic effect. With a comfortable Florida lead, she could also be up by ridiculous margins in California, New York, Illinois and have very comfortable leads in Nevada and New Mexico, although that would be reflected in Colorado polling too (though we've only really had one in a long time). Who knows.

[Tender Branson]

Hillary doesn't have a "clear" lead in FL. It might be artificial. Trump did really well in FL and we have seen "clear" leads before in FL (Sink, Crist) and they all lost ... Blaxicasians could help Hillary in FL, but I'd still rate it a total tossup.

[Virginiá]

Hillary doesn't have a "clear" lead in FL. It might be artificial. Trump did really well in FL and we have seen "clear" leads before in FL (Sink, Crist) and they all lost ... Blaxicasians could help Hillary in FL, but I'd still rate it a total tossup.

Primary results have little to no bearing on general election results. Trump did really well in New York too, but he's still going to get savagely crushed there in the GE.

[Holmes]

Hillary doesn't have a "clear" lead in FL. It might be artificial. Trump did really well in FL and we have seen "clear" leads before in FL (Sink, Crist) and they all lost ... Blaxicasians could help Hillary in FL, but I'd still rate it a total tossup.

Trump did well in Florida... but Hillary did better. She overperformed the polls in the Florida primary. This just sounds like "Clinton isn't ahead in Florida because I say so".

[Seriously?]

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So much for younger millennials being more Republican than older millennials.

Meh. Subsamples and the MOE.