Ballotpedia: Clinton way ahead in battlegrounds (FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA)

[pbrower2a]

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4

It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

It is also consistent with CNN hiring a pollster that doesn't have an idea of what it is doing.

Michigan at D+17, Pennsylvania at D+14, and Virginia at D+7 are not far out of range of the 2008 election. I've seen some horrible polls for Trump in Florida; in a wave election what looks like an outlier could be a reality.

But even significant cutbacks of some of these results (let us say Florida to D+4, North Carolina to D+2, and Ohio to D+3 suggest one thing: Donald Trump is not going to be President of the United States. Michigan at D+17 indicates about a 55-45 margin for Hillary Clinton in a nationwide race.  

[pbrower2a]

With these levels of Democratic support for these states, I can imagine Georgia and Indiana going for Clinton. Maybe South Carolina.

The level of support for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is high enough to allow a genuine three-way Presidential race. Hillary Clinton loses a little to Johnson, but far from as much as Donald Trump. This may be even more important to deciding what states Hillary Clinton can win.

Even if one discounts some of the anomalous results, one must recognize that the threshold for a Clinton win become a plurality in a three-way race. Maps forthcoming.