Democracy Corps AZ/FL/MI/NV/NH/NC/OH/PA/WI: Clinton up 8

[HillOfANight]

http://www.wvwvaf.org/blog/2016/06/wvwvaf-battleground-survey-in-nine-competitive-states-shows-big-gains-for-clinton-massive-marriage-gap/

http://www.wvwvaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Dcor_WVWV_State-BG-Memo_6.30.2016_for-release.pdf

http://www.wvwvaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Dcorps_WV_BG_06.30.16_for-release.pdf

NC (+10)
Clinton 48
Trump 38

FL (+11)
Clinton 49
Trump 38

AZ (-6)
Clinton 39
Trump 45

NV (0)
Clinton 44
Trump 44

MI (+15)
Clinton 48
Trump 33

WI (+12)
Clinton 44
Trump 32

PA (+9)
Clinton 45
Trump 36

OH (0)
Clinton 41
Trump 41

NH (0)
Clinton 41
Trump 41

[Gass3268]

Interesting numbers...

Just throw them in the average

[amdcpus]

Gary Johnson gets an average of 11% in this poll. Additionally, he gets 14% in Ohio, 16% in Wisconsin, 13% in Pennsylvania, 12% in Michigan, and 10% in New Hampshire.

He leads Trump 12% to 11% in minority voters in these states and leads Trump 28% to 21% in Millennials in these states.

He also gets 22% of Millennials, 25% of white Millennials, 24% of Independents, 17% of Sanders supporters and 26% of Kasich supporters.

[Landslide Lyndon]

No Virginia and Colorado?

[Wiz in Wis]

No Virginia and Colorado?

Or NM, MO, ME, GA - Given that they did MI, WI, you'd think those would also be on the table.

[dspNY]

Florida is really swinging hard to the democrats this time. However I question the Nevada poll. No way is it tied there when Clinton leads by 8 in the Repub leaning 3rd district

[Xing]

Maybe these pollsters should focus on doing one or two states at a time. It seems whenever many states are polled at once, the results make little sense. Clinton up 10 in NC, and 11 in FL, but only tied in NH and NV? Doubtful.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interestingly though this is the second straight poll showing Clinton ahead by double difits in NC and FL.

[Ebsy]

Maybe these pollsters should focus on doing one or two states at a time. It seems whenever many states are polled at once, the results make little sense. Clinton up 10 in NC, and 11 in FL, but only tied in NH and NV? Doubtful.

Nevada is next to impossible to poll.

[Holmes]

Maybe these pollsters should focus on doing one or two states at a time. It seems whenever many states are polled at once, the results make little sense. Clinton up 10 in NC, and 11 in FL, but only tied in NH and NV? Doubtful.

Nevada is next to impossible to poll.

For pollsters without experience in the state, anyway.

[Virginiá]

Florida is really swinging hard to the democrats this time. However I question the Nevada poll. No way is it tied there when Clinton leads by 8 in the Repub leaning 3rd district

Can you imagine if Clinton won Florida by anything even close to double digits? Republicans' heads would explode. They have no realistic path to 270+ without Florida, and there are no signs this issue for them will change anytime in the next decade at least. Losing their advantage in FL would royally screw them in the electoral college.

[Holmes]

Florida is really swinging hard to the democrats this time. However I question the Nevada poll. No way is it tied there when Clinton leads by 8 in the Repub leaning 3rd district

Can you imagine if Clinton won Florida by anything even close to double digits? Republicans' heads would explode. They have no realistic path to 270+ without Florida, and there are no signs this issue for them will change anytime in the next decade at least. Losing their advantage in FL would royally screw them in the electoral college.

Just means they'll start beating the Pennsylvania drum harder in future cycles.

[Xing]

Florida is really swinging hard to the democrats this time. However I question the Nevada poll. No way is it tied there when Clinton leads by 8 in the Repub leaning 3rd district

Can you imagine if Clinton won Florida by anything even close to double digits? Republicans' heads would explode. They have no realistic path to 270+ without Florida, and there are no signs this issue for them will change anytime in the next decade at least. Losing their advantage in FL would royally screw them in the electoral college.

Just means they'll start beating the Pennsylvania drum harder in future cycles.

Not to mention insist that the Upper Midwest is trending Republican.

[HillOfANight]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

I looked at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)'s rating, and they only have 49% of races called correctly.

[Skye]

So Trump trails horribly in most swing states but is tied in Nevada? Got it.

[President Johnson]

Hilldog doing better in Florida then in North Carolina and Nevada? JUNK!

[Higgs]

Never have I ever seen a string of polls so garbage.

[IceSpear]

The amount of junk polls showing wildly divergent results in the past couple days is a good example of why you should be taking them with a pillar of salt for now.

[Seriously?]

LMAO@ Nevada and New Hampshire.

Those AZ polls are really discouraging for Clinton, though. She should be ahead or tied in this state right now if she's winning by a huge margin nationally.

She's not. Trump is slightly closing the gap. Probably more of a 3-6 range than 5-7 at this point.

With that said, this is a Clintonista Dem-leaning outfit. I'd take anything they do with a grain of salt. Greenberg/Carville/Shrum. Greenberg is married to a Dem Congresswoman from CT. (DeLauro CT-3)

[Ebsy]

LMAO@ Nevada and New Hampshire.

Those AZ polls are really discouraging for Clinton, though. She should be ahead or tied in this state right now if she's winning by a huge margin nationally.

She's not. Trump is slightly closing the gap. Probably more of a 3-6 range than 5-7 at this point.

With that said, this is a Clintonista Dem-leaning outfit. I'd take anything they do with a grain of salt. Greenberg/Carville/Shrum. Greenberg is married to a Dem Congresswoman from CT. (DeLauro CT-3)

Your ability to screen out evidence you don't agree with is really remarkable.

[Seriously?]

LMAO@ Nevada and New Hampshire.

Those AZ polls are really discouraging for Clinton, though. She should be ahead or tied in this state right now if she's winning by a huge margin nationally.

She's not. Trump is slightly closing the gap. Probably more of a 3-6 range than 5-7 at this point.

With that said, this is a Clintonista Dem-leaning outfit. I'd take anything they do with a grain of salt. Greenberg/Carville/Shrum. Greenberg is married to a Dem Congresswoman from CT. (DeLauro CT-3)

Your ability to screen out evidence you don't agree with is really remarkable.

Ummm. No. I'd say the same thing about those Clout folks or whatever other obviously partisan Republican pollsters there are out there. Take them with a grain of salt.

Especially when you get a screwy sample like some of these results from these "Democracy Corps." Carville, Shrum and Greenberg are Democrat shrills.

[Gustaf]

It has a B- rating from 538 and a pretty big pro-Dem bias.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So Hillary has a double digit lead in FL and NC, but it's tied in NH? RIP TN Volunteer.

[HillOfANight]

Just saw via Pollster
https://twitter.com/pollsterpolls/status/751606150789902337
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Dcorps_WV_BG_063016.pdf

This is the 2 way head to head, NOT the 4 way previously posted. Clinton behind in AZ, OH, NV

AZ
Clinton 43
Trump 48

FL
Clinton 52
Trump 39

MI
Clinton 50
Trump 39

NC
Clinton 51
Trump 41

NH
Clinton 51
Trump 47

NV
Clinton 44
Trump 47

OH
Clinton 47
Trump 48

PA
Clinton 49
Trump 39

WI
Clinton 47
Trump 36

[Dr. Arch]

Those leads in NC, MI, FL, WI, and PA pretty much seal the deal. The rest is frosting.