AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11

[dspNY]

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Mississippi left the deep south?

She can get 43% without a big issue with good African-American turnout there. Getting the extra 7% to go over the top is almost impossible due to her connection with Pres. Obama and how much he is hated by white voters there

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

AR was R+27.55% in 2012.  An 11% lead is indicative of a Hillaryslide, unless AR trends way, WAY Democrat.

[dspNY]

AR was R+27.55% in 2012.  An 11% lead is indicative of a Hillaryslide, unless AR trends way, WAY Democrat.

It will trend very Democratic with a Clinton on the ticket but Arkansas looks so Republican that she probably won't win it anyway. Now if Arkansas were a 5 point race that is indicative of a national landslide

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

AR was R+27.55% in 2012.  An 11% lead is indicative of a Hillaryslide, unless AR trends way, WAY Democrat.

It will trend very Democratic with a Clinton on the ticket but Arkansas looks so Republican that she probably won't win it anyway. Now if Arkansas were a 5 point race that is indicative of a national landslide

I don't spend any time in Arkansas but I have a feeling the Clintons are poison by now.

If we suppose you're right and give AR a 10-point D trend (which is absurd), that is consistent with Hillary ahead 6.5% nationally.  I think a 10 point trend is silly.  5 at the most, which means that this poll would indicate a double-digit national lead for Hillary.

But most likely this is a junk poll.

[IceSpear]

Dems will likely get a dead cat bounce here due to the Clinton brand.

[Badger]

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.

FTFY

NC isn't deep south?

[Badger]

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.

FTFY

NC isn't deep south?

[pbrower2a]

It'll almost certainly be more lopsided than that. AR is less likely to go Democratic than AL.

Get real, Hilldog won't win any state of the deep south. Florida is the only southern state in play.

Let me introduce you to Georgia, North Carolina, and especially Virginia.

FTFY

NC isn't deep south?

Virginia has become a Northern state in its politics. It has often been the odd-man-out among Southern states, generally voting very differently from other former Secessionist states. It was the only former Confederate state to vote against Jimmy Carter, and despite seeming to be a good cultural fit for Bill Clinton, it never went for him.

Florida politics has been describe this way: to go South politically in Florida, go north. Central and southern Florida (Tampa-St. Pete, Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, etc.) is very liberal. The more rural northern Florida votes like Alabama and Georgia. Pensacola and Jacksonville are rather conservative for their size.  

North Carolina has been attracting lots of Northern migrants, and the politics shows.  Georgia does, but only in Greater Atlanta. Alabama? Maybe Huntsville, but that's about it. Mississippi? No. Louisiana? Maybe around New Orleans, but that is about it.