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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA- Gravis Marketing Gives Mixed Results  (Read 1648 times)
mds32
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« on: June 30, 2016, 01:18:58 pm »

Florida
Trump 49%
Clinton 45%

http://www.oann.com/pollflorida/

Ohio
Trump 47%
Clinton 46%

http://www.oann.com/pollohio/

Pennsylvania
Clinton 48%
Trump 47%

http://www.oann.com/pollpenn/
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amdcpus
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2016, 01:22:47 pm »

Trash poll.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2016, 01:23:12 pm »

Wow. Maybe the race is shifting slightly. I guess maybe it's related to Brexit and the discussion around globalism that seems to have taken to the news shows?

That, or it's just Gravis.
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2016, 01:24:06 pm »

It's Gravis.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2016, 01:24:18 pm »

Well Gravis has a tight national race so it shouldn't be surprising that their state polls show the same.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2016, 01:25:41 pm »

First Rasmussen, now Gravis, all we need is an ARG poll to declare June 30th as "Crappy Pollsters Day".
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2016, 01:25:59 pm »

http://d2pggiv3o55wnc.cloudfront.net/oann/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Crosstabs-Florida-OAN.pdf

Florida, 18-29, 78.1% Trump, 0% Clinton. GARBAGE.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2016, 01:28:20 pm »

LOL in the crosstabs it has 70% of 18-29 year olds as Republican and 20% as Democrats. This poll is hot garbage.
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« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2016, 01:31:12 pm »

Is this a record for the most junk polls in one day?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2016, 01:33:21 pm »

LOL in the crosstabs it has 70% of 18-29 year olds as Republican and 20% as Democrats. This poll is hot garbage.

For Ohio, it also has 58% Trump for 18-29, and 31% Clinton lol
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Virginiá
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« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2016, 01:34:28 pm »

Is it just me or are their demographic samples skewed? Based on the exit polls from 2012 in Florida, they seem to have over-sampled African Americans and under-sampled Hispanics. NYTimes exit polls has African Americans making up 13% of the 2012 FL electorate, and Hispanics 17%, yet the poll here shows 16% African American and 14% Hispanic. How would the AA share jump like that and why would the Hispanic share be lower than 2012? Even if we ignore the likely Hispanic voter surge this cycle, demographic changes alone would put the Hispanic electorate past 2012's share.

So am I missing something here or...?


Putting aside their clear errors there, 70%+ of the 18-29 vote for Clinton in FL would be somewhat consistent with voting patterns of people 18 - 29 since 2004. FL youth (18-29) voted Democratic 58% in 2004, 61% in 2008, and 66% in 2012. So against the Donald, it wouldn't surprise me if she cracked 70%, though, not 78%.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2016, 01:36:00 pm »

There are 3 pollsters still using IVR/robo dialing phone polls, Gravis, Rasmussen and PPP.  All 3 seem to show a bit of a Trump bias so far. If you average their polls the race is tied but if you look at just Internet or just live phone polls the race is around Clinton +5 to+6.  So maybe we are dealing more with a methodology thing here. 
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« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2016, 01:38:00 pm »

Wow. Maybe the race is shifting slightly. I guess maybe it's related to Brexit and the discussion around globalism that seems to have taken to the news shows?

That, or it's just Gravis.
There is a slight shift in the national polls of late towards Trump. Nothing major, a point or two. I'd have it more in the 3-6 range than the 5-7.

As far as these polls go.. Glorious, glorious news! (even if it's Gravis).
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« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2016, 01:58:43 pm »

The FL number definitely seems like an outlier. OH and PA are interesting, though. So much for PA being a solid blue state.
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« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2016, 02:00:52 pm »

Honestly, looks more realistic. The race is definitely a tossup.
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2016, 02:28:23 pm »

Trash. Not using.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2016, 02:38:52 pm »

It's too bad that polls make narratives, because today has been an awful day for alarmist sh-t polls.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2016, 02:47:02 pm »

The FL number definitely seems like an outlier. OH and PA are interesting, though. So much for PA being a solid blue state.

Your not that much of a hack where you going to use Gravis to confirm you preconceived notions about how certain states are going to vote, are you?
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2016, 03:11:30 pm »

Beautiful polls! I'd like to just ignore those junk crosstabs lol.
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Higgs
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« Reply #19 on: June 30, 2016, 03:12:45 pm »

Wow. Maybe the race is shifting slightly. I guess maybe it's related to Brexit and the discussion around globalism that seems to have taken to the news shows?

That, or it's just Gravis.

Perhaps, but at least from what I've seen nearly every bit of coverage over brexit has been negative. I doubt that's the cause of the shift in the race (if a shift did indeed occur).
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« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2016, 03:13:07 pm »

Gravis is junk that is like a broken clock with their Nevada caucus poll (which was on the money)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: June 30, 2016, 03:23:47 pm »

The FL number definitely seems like an outlier. OH and PA are interesting, though. So much for PA being a solid blue state.

FL is Clinton +4 (OH is Clinton +4 as well) in this poll without the generic "other" option.  None of the polls were are comparing it to have a generic "other" option.  That could explain the discrepancy.

Then those should be the numbers put in the database.
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« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2016, 04:42:25 pm »

LOL in the crosstabs it has 70% of 18-29 year olds as Republican and 20% as Democrats. This poll is hot garbage.

For Ohio, it also has 58% Trump for 18-29, and 31% Clinton lol

The FOX News poll also showed little to no generational divide.  This election might just not be so polarized based on age.
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« Reply #23 on: June 30, 2016, 06:37:34 pm »

Anyone who takes a Gravis poll seriously ought to be banned.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2016, 07:08:51 pm »

Honestly, looks more realistic. The race is definitely a tossup.

Boy, look at those polls. There is just no way anyone could even come close to accurately guessing who is going to win! It's just SO close!


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