Election Odds

[jravnsbo]

How anyone could not have supported Estrada is beyond me.  Ok I'll say you can make an argument, an ideological one for the rest of the nominees, but the leaked memos that Kennedy and Durbin sent about we have to stop this guy because "He's a Latino" is outrageous.

Estrada argued over 15 cases before the US SCT and worked for the DOJ.  WOW right there.  Then Dems tried to say the cases he argued were out of the mainstream, but he WON most of them.  who is out of the mainstream?

Next John Roberts was confirmed to the DC CT of App.  He also argued cases before SCT and worked at DOJ with Estrada.

Roberts was never asked for sensitive work product memos and papers that NO ATTORNEY has to give up, but Estrada was and that is what the Dems hung their hat on.

Also 4 Democrat US Attorney Generals , DEMOCRATS! came out and sai that to give up or even to ask for these papers was outrageous!

But Roberts was a white male and so not a problem, but darn Estrada was a Shhhh LAtino.

Outrageous!

[jravnsbo]

It will be Estrada or Gonzalez, current WH Counsel if a spot opens up.

Both very much qualified (even ask the ABA which USED TO BE The standard for dems) and shhh "LAtinos"

[jravnsbo]

I agree "Beet" like I said before he was arguing and winning the vast majority of the cases he won at the SCOTUS, which last time i checked interpretted the law.  So hard to call him out of the mainstream when he wins cases, where any lawyer hopes to argue just one case in his life, at the highest level over and over again.

[jravnsbo]

Madea list of legislation , domestic and foriegn policy a while back as to what would be looked at for Bush's relelection.

So far Unemployment has went from 6.2% to 5.9%.  The Prescript Drugs bill passed.  The PBA Bill passed.

Energy Bill looks like it will pass next year, witha  few adjustment, but ethanol will stay in.


Then I put down Sadaam and OBL capture.  Well "WE GOT EM" Saddam that is!  A huge PLUS For thee President and the troops!  Odds just got better for Bush as they have been over the past few months.

[jravnsbo]

Yep Bush's odds just went UP!

44/55 on Iraqi most wanted list gotten!  all winners in that!

[jravnsbo]

NO way are the Dems taking Congress.  Go look at the races carefully.  

House is currently 229-206 ( including Socialist Sanders) so Dems need to geta  NET 13 seats.  So far I have only seen about 15 seats being open and that is like 7 GOP and 8 Dems.  Plus Bush is not going to lose in a landslide and have a sweep out.  Plus if Bush wins as you play in your "what if" scenario Bush and the GOP will get a few of these seats in tossup races.  So few Democrats even are predicting a takeover of the House, especially with Pelosi and Maybe Dean as the liberal leaders of the party.  That will not play well with a lot of the close conservative Dem races , esp in the South.

Senate  currently 51-49 ( with "Jumping Jim")  So if Bush wins then Dems need to NET 2 seats to gain control.  Currently there are 4 open Southern Dem seats, with I'd say 3 of them (GA< NC< SC leaning to GOP)  then FL is an open DEm seat the Dem have to defend and that one will be a tossup.  Also we should find out tomorrow if LA becomes an open race with Sen Breaux's announcement.  The Dems could have potentially competitive races in SD, ND, NV, AR and CA--second tier but SD could really be tight with Thune running.

GOP has to defend IL ( likely Dem) and OK and AK ( but I think GOP will hold these in the end.  

Again DEms need to get a NET 2, while defending 19 vs 15 for GOP this cycle.  

So I don't see that either.  Most are predicting a few GOP seats picked up.

December 14, 2003

With the capture of Saddam Hussein in Tikrit, I will raise Bush's re-election chances from 70% to 80%.  This might take foreign policy off oif the table, leaving only.....cuts in overtime pay?  MEdicare?  Not much left for my party in 2004.

I agree that Saddam's capture raises Bush's re-election chances. However, I disagree that it leaves little for our party to use against President Bush. Three things we could use: Where are our Surpluses? Where are the 13 Million jobs that the Clinton Administration created? Oh, and what happened to the Education President? There have been cuts there too. I predict a Democratic Sweep in the State Houses and in the Congress. Even if Bush gets re-elected, he'll have to deal with a Democratic Majority in Both Houses of Congress.

[jravnsbo]

Good.  Always nice to have a buddy when you have to cry in your beer.

I'm in agreement with Christopher Micheal on this one.

[jravnsbo]

it was meant to be sarcastic--but it will be true also

No way Dems are taking Congress back, and definately not both Houses.

[jravnsbo]

Yeah waiting on Texas ruling.

Did you see Dems tryying to argue, well freshman GOP House members would result ina  loss of power for Texas, and so what legal argument is that?  Better to have career politicians then I guess, disgusting!

[jravnsbo]

Dean is hard left running in this campaign.   He wants socialized medicine, he wants TAX INCREASES on EVERYONE not just the rich.  He signed the first civil union bill instead of fighting it.

He is running ard left on antiwar message, which is way left of Kerry who voted for the war and plus Kerry is not for Tax increases on the middle class like Dean is proposing.

Plus Dean is advocating MORE regulations on business.  That is a Nader left wing idea.  Lots of specifics in thi areas, hard to discuss without in depth discussion.

[jravnsbo]

Back to election odds!...

Posted this in a less used forum but fits, Edwards has said AGAIN he doesn't want to be VP.

Edwards Says Not Interested in Vice Presidency
Sun December 28, 2003 12:19 PM ET

 
 
 
 
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards of North Carolina said on Sunday he was "absolutely not interested" in a vice presidential slot.
Edwards, a first-term U.S. senator with fewer than five years of political experience, talked optimistically of his chances in the race to take on President Bush next year, despite low poll standings in Iowa and New Hampshire where the first nominating contests begin in January.

Asked if he would agree to run in the second slot with one of eight candidates to be the Democrats' presidential nominee, Edwards said: "I'm absolutely not interested in being vice president. No, the answer to that question is no."

Edwards, who will not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate, said in an interview from his campaign headquarters in Columbia, South Carolina, that he was not dismayed by polls that place him in the single digits in the kick-off states.

"There's no problem," he told "Fox News Sunday." "If you're me and you're here on the ground and you see what's happening, I have a lead here in South Carolina, which will be the third key primary state. In Iowa and New Hampshire, I've been moving up."

As a southerner, the early Feb. 3 contest in South Carolina is make-or-break for Edwards.

A personal injury trial lawyer before being elected to the U.S. Senate from North Carolina in his first run for political office in 1998, Edwards has sounded populist themes while campaigning in the last year.

Leading in most polls is former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who began the race as a little-known longshot but parlayed outspoken opposition to the Iraq war and blunt criticism of Bush into the lead.

Edwards is among his chief challengers, along with U.S. Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and retired Gen. Wesley Clark, the former commander of NATO.

[jravnsbo]

communism CAN work if everyone worked hard towards the goal.  It can work like in a commune where the society is small, but when on a big scale lots of people get lAZY and then one dictator rises up tog et them into line and then gets too much power, hence it snowballs and doesn't work.

[jravnsbo]

what law says the family has to give to children, not sure what you are referencing.


Plus taking care of children or people that are not yet able to take care of themselves is hardly communism.  All forms of society have to teach the basic tenents of life to live.

[jravnsbo]

Potential yes, always everything has potential.  But reality says attacks are down.  They (terrorists) havbe just been lucky to hit large numbers in single attacks.  It was said just the other day that in one of the dangerous towns they were down from 17 to 5 attacks a day.

Plus if we keep rounding up these leaders such as #54 and Al-Douri (hopefully soon) we will break the resistance completely.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Iraq does have the potential of becoming another Vietnam. Capturing Saddam is a awesome feat, but things can still escalate and get nasty, big time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jravnsbo]

Why do we need to invade, they are already starting to open up to inspectors.  That is definately a good result from this administration.  Plus we have Iran surrounded and can put the pressure on them without actually going in.

If Bush is re-elected we will most likely invade Iran.