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Author Topic: Clinton lead falls to 3% in NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll  (Read 1651 times)
amdcpus
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« on: July 05, 2016, 11:25:49 am »

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-how-would-november-look-without-him-n603496

She leads Trump 41% to 38%.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2016, 11:30:35 am »

She led Trump 42% to 36% in the last NBC/SurveyMonkey poll, taken a week prior to this one.
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2016, 11:36:31 am »

Wrong. Clinton leads Trump 48/43 (+5) in a head-to-head match up. Clinton also leads Trump 41/38 (+3) with Johnson and Stein in the mix.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/317453619/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-6-27-7-3
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amdcpus
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2016, 11:38:27 am »

Wrong. Clinton leads Trump 48/43 (+5) in a head-to-head match up. Clinton also leads Trump 41/38 (+3) with Johnson and Stein in the mix.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/317453619/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-6-27-7-3

Lol no. Considering Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot in the election, I think it is much more accurate to include the poll that includes them.
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Arch
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2016, 11:39:21 am »

Wrong. Clinton leads Trump 48/43 (+5) in a head-to-head match up. Clinton also leads Trump 41/38 (+3) with Johnson and Stein in the mix.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/317453619/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-6-27-7-3

Lol. Considering Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot in the election, I think it is much more accurate to include the poll that includes them.

You reported the poll disingenuously by not mentioning them at all.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2016, 11:39:51 am »

Wrong. Clinton leads Trump 48/43 (+5) in a head-to-head match up. Clinton also leads Trump 41/38 (+3) with Johnson and Stein in the mix.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/317453619/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-6-27-7-3

Lol no. Considering Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot in the election, I think it is much more accurate to include the poll that includes them.

Stein and Johnson are never getting that % of the vote nationwide so the head to head D v. R contest is more accurate
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amdcpus
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2016, 11:40:21 am »

Wrong. Clinton leads Trump 48/43 (+5) in a head-to-head match up. Clinton also leads Trump 41/38 (+3) with Johnson and Stein in the mix.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/317453619/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-6-27-7-3

Lol. Considering Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot in the election, I think it is much more accurate to include the poll that includes them.

You reported the poll disingenuously by not mentioning them at all.

Nope. NBC reported the poll disingenuously by refusing to release their numbers.
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2016, 11:42:05 am »

Wrong. Clinton leads Trump 48/43 (+5) in a head-to-head match up. Clinton also leads Trump 41/38 (+3) with Johnson and Stein in the mix.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/317453619/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-6-27-7-3

Lol. Considering Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot in the election, I think it is much more accurate to include the poll that includes them.

You reported the poll disingenuously by not mentioning them at all.

Nope. NBC reported the poll disingenuously by refusing to release their numbers.

Yet the numbers are above in my post.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2016, 12:36:24 pm »

Just 3?! lol

Also:

Kasich 50
Clinton 42

Ryan 47
Clinton 45

Romney 45
Clinton 45

If Clinton wins this, she can thank Republican primary voters.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2016, 12:38:12 pm by TN volunteer »Logged

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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2016, 12:42:34 pm »

Just 3?! lol

Also:

Kasich 50
Clinton 42

Ryan 47
Clinton 45

Romney 45
Clinton 45

If Clinton wins this, she can thank Republican primary voters.

You know those other matchups are irrelevant.

But she is going to sink even lower after the "extremely careless" remark that undercuts her experience argument.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2016, 12:48:41 pm »

You know those other matchups are irrelevant.

Hillary only managing a 3-point lead against DONALD TRUMP of all people shows how immensely beatable she is. Any Republican who manages to lose this election is simply a terrible candidate. As simple as that.
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« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2016, 12:52:39 pm »

You know those other matchups are irrelevant.

Hillary only managing a 3-point lead against DONALD TRUMP of all people shows how immensely beatable she is. Any Republican who manages to lose this election is simply a terrible candidate. As simple as that.

5-point lead if it's a head-to-head match up.
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2016, 12:55:07 pm »

You know those other matchups are irrelevant.

Hillary only managing a 3-point lead against DONALD TRUMP of all people shows how immensely beatable she is. Any Republican who manages to lose this election is simply a terrible candidate. As simple as that.

Donald Trump has not lost this election yet.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2016, 01:23:28 pm »

The usual village idiots up in arms about statistically insignificant moves in junky online tracking polls. Sad!
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Seriously?
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« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2016, 01:32:57 pm »

You know those other matchups are irrelevant.

Hillary only managing a 3-point lead against DONALD TRUMP of all people shows how immensely beatable she is. Any Republican who manages to lose this election is simply a terrible candidate. As simple as that.

5-point lead if it's a head-to-head match up.
I think the measuring stick we've been using has included third-parties, if polled.

In any event, it fits the narrative that the race is inching back slightly towards Trump. You're realistically in a 3-5 point band as opposed to a 5-7 point one. The post-nomination bounce for Clinton has evaporated.

If you're objective about this race, it should not be a blowout.
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« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2016, 01:34:56 pm »

The usual village idiots up in arms about statistically insignificant moves in junky online tracking polls. Sad!
If it were just one poll, that's one thing. But the other polling also suggests that the race is tightening a bit. It's nothing to be excited about or panic about pre-convention in either side of the aisle, but it's Atlas, so everyone's going to overreact.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #16 on: July 05, 2016, 01:35:49 pm »

If you're objective about this race, it should not be a blowout.

"It should not be a blowout" is not encouraging for Republicans who want to win.
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« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2016, 02:14:43 pm »

I swear, as much as I want him to, Gary Johnson is not going to get more than 5% of the vote and Stein won't get more than 1.
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« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2016, 02:24:30 pm »

If you're objective about this race, it should not be a blowout.

"It should not be a blowout" is not encouraging for Republicans who want to win.
1) Open seat election.
2) Polarized electorate.

It doesn't suggest a blowout on either side.
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RFayette
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« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2016, 02:57:11 pm »

If you're objective about this race, it should not be a blowout.

"It should not be a blowout" is not encouraging for Republicans who want to win.

Yeah.  It's obvious Trump was a disaster candidate if the goal was to win (this was clear sometime by mid-May I'd say, when he didn't back down on his previous style and pivot), hence why many liberals like smilo pretended to support Trump so it would be easier for Hillary to win and enact a liberal agenda.  But who knows?  Obviously, Trump will probably lose because of his foot-in-the-mouth, but it would be a glorious day if somehow, the liberals could finally lose a general election again.
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Ljube
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« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2016, 03:02:35 pm »

If you're objective about this race, it should not be a blowout.

"It should not be a blowout" is not encouraging for Republicans who want to win.

Yeah.  It's obvious Trump was a disaster candidate if the goal was to win (this was clear sometime by mid-May I'd say, when he didn't back down on his previous style and pivot), hence why many liberals like smilo pretended to support Trump so it would be easier for Hillary to win and enact a liberal agenda.  But who knows?  Obviously, Trump will probably lose because of his foot-in-the-mouth, but it would be a glorious day if somehow, the liberals could finally lose a general election again.

That won't happen with a conventional candidate. Only with an erratic like Trump. The sooner you realize that, the better.

Otherwise, be prepared for a permanent Democratic majority bordering tyranny in the many years to come.
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« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2016, 03:59:25 pm »

Just 3?! lol

Also:

Kasich 50
Clinton 42

Ryan 47
Clinton 45

Romney 45
Clinton 45

If Clinton wins this, she can thank Republican primary voters.

Those matchups are irrelevant since those people haven't put themselves through the meat grinder of a campaign, so those are actually very pitiful numbers for Ryan and Romney. I do agree she would've been the underdog against Kasich.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2016, 04:02:04 pm by IceSpear »Logged

Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2016, 04:21:38 pm »

Just 3?! lol

Also:

Kasich 50
Clinton 42

Ryan 47
Clinton 45

Romney 45
Clinton 45

If Clinton wins this, she can thank Republican primary voters.

Those matchups are irrelevant since those people haven't put themselves through the meat grinder of a campaign, so those are actually very pitiful numbers for Ryan and Romney. I do agree she would've been the underdog against Kasich.

Well, IceSpear, I don't agree even that. Kasich was largely unknown and he would also have been demonized by the Democratic smear machine, if he had become the nominee. And being low energy, bland and unremarkable, he would certainly have not been immune to such attacks.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: July 05, 2016, 04:30:03 pm »

Just 3?! lol

Also:

Kasich 50
Clinton 42

Ryan 47
Clinton 45

Romney 45
Clinton 45

If Clinton wins this, she can thank Republican primary voters.

Those matchups are irrelevant since those people haven't put themselves through the meat grinder of a campaign, so those are actually very pitiful numbers for Ryan and Romney. I do agree she would've been the underdog against Kasich.

Well, IceSpear, I don't agree even that. Kasich was largely unknown and he would also have been demonized by the Democratic smear machine, if he had become the nominee. And being low energy, bland and unremarkable, he would certainly have not been immune to such attacks.

He would've been attacked, but he also would've had his reputation as a moderate hero, sane and reasonable Republican, etc. to fall back on. The media also would've heavily backed him over Hillary, as opposed to now where they're backing Hillary reluctantly. His numbers and favorability definitely would've fallen, but I think he'd have a modest edge now, around the same size as the one Hillary currently has. He wouldn't be a lock or anything, just like Hillary is not a lock now.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #24 on: July 05, 2016, 04:39:08 pm »

Just 3?! lol

Also:

Kasich 50
Clinton 42

Ryan 47
Clinton 45

Romney 45
Clinton 45

If Clinton wins this, she can thank Republican primary voters.
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