Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Arizona
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Poll
Question: Rate Arizona and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 182

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Arizona  (Read 5043 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: July 05, 2016, 12:08:46 PM »
Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other). If you missed one of the votes in previous threads, you can go back and change your vote.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit: Alabama Alaska

Ratings



Safe Clinton: 0
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 0
Toss-Up: 0
Lean Trump: 0
Likely Trump: 3
Safe Trump: 9

Trump: 12
Clinton: 0
Toss-Up: 0

Predictions



Trump: 12
Clinton: 0

Arizona: Lean R, 51-46 Trump. Looks like it should be more competitive than in recent years.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2016, 12:13:40 PM »
Lean R

This one is much closer to flipping than in previous years thanks to the large Latino population, which appears to be polling 80-20 or even 85-15 in favor of Clinton.  I believe if Clinton gets an 8-point lead on Trump this becomes a toss-up.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2016, 12:16:59 PM »
I barely voted "Lean R."
But it could be Toss-Up.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2016, 12:28:57 PM »
Toss-Up, Clinton ultimately taking it. I say this mainly because of these reasons:

1) Reduced R Mormon support
2) Consolidated D Latino support due to Trump's incendiary campaign
3) Stymied base R support because of Trump's disastrous campaign

The current polls also suggest she might eke out a win here.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2016, 12:32:17 PM »
Toss-Up, Trump wins 48-48.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2016, 12:55:26 PM »
It's true that Democrats say "THIS will be the year Arizona finally turns blue!" every year. However, circumstances really could be ideal this year, since Republicans picked a candidate who not only does terribly among Latinos, but could make more of them turn out to vote against him. Hillary's a better fit for Arizona than Obama, as well.

Lean R for now, though it's definitely a state to watch. My current prediction is that Trump wins 50-46.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2016, 01:09:58 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 08:47:54 AM by Gass3268 »
Right now it's a Toss Up, but it will go for Trump.

50-47-3 (Trump-Clinton-Other)
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2016, 01:17:40 PM »
Lean R

Trump 50
Clinton 46
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2016, 01:18:29 PM »
Polls suggest a tossup, but I'll go ahead and call it Tilt R based on their historical success here.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2016, 01:21:03 PM »
Arizona is a toss-up right now. I think Clinton will win the state, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump won.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2016, 02:06:37 PM »
If Johnson fades:

Trump 52
Clinton 45
Johnson 2
Others 1

If he doesn't:

Trump 46
Clinton 43
Johnson 10
Others 1
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2016, 02:12:52 PM »
Lean R and Trump. I doubt think that Turnip will break 50 though.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2016, 02:24:11 PM »
Tossup
Trump 49
Clinton 47
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2016, 03:28:57 PM »
Lean R, but could easily be a tossup.
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tinman64
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« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2016, 04:26:08 PM »
Tossup

Trump 49
Clinton 48
Other 3
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2016, 05:00:30 PM »
Lean R for now, I'll re-evaluate after the conventions.

51-46 Trump
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KingSweden
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« Reply #16 on: July 05, 2016, 05:05:10 PM »
Lean R
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Thomas D
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« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2016, 05:34:06 PM »
Toss up

Trump    47
Clinton   45
Johnson  6
Stein       2
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2016, 05:43:18 PM »
Lean R
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2016, 06:26:42 PM »
Are you averaging all the votes for the results, or...?

(I. E. If it was about 50-50 Lean D/Lean R, would you call it a tossup or whichever had more slightly?)
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Suburbia
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« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2016, 06:28:53 PM »
Tossup, 52-48 Trump.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2016, 06:31:50 PM »
Quote from: Northeast Assemblyman Kingpoleon on July 05, 2016, 06:26:42 PM
Are you averaging all the votes for the results, or...?

(I. E. If it was about 50-50 Lean D/Lean R, would you call it a tossup or whichever had more slightly?)

I take the median response, right now its very close between Lean R and Toss-Up. So if a poll has 50 votes for example, I count 25 votes in from either Safe R and Safe D and wherever that vote is would be the result.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2016, 11:53:26 PM »
Toss up

Clinton wins 50-48-2
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #23 on: July 06, 2016, 12:37:03 AM »
I voted Leans R, although I'm teetering on the tossup cusp, as I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillary winning it. I realize McCain isn't that popular at home, but Trump's belittling of his military service combined with all the other crazy crap he's said might just be enough to paint the state blue/Atlas red, as Hillary is a much better fit for the state than Obama was, having won the Arizona Primary both times. However, Trump has crazy Joe Arpaio and Jan Brewer on his side, the former who may help Trump turn out the racist whites tired of all them dirty Messicans invading "their" state.

I'll probably change my ratings for this state as the campaign progresses, but giving it to Trump right now.

Leans R
Trump 48
Clinton 47
Johnson 4
Stein 1
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #24 on: July 06, 2016, 01:25:20 AM »
Lean R, although a more appropriate description might be "Tilt R."
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