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Author Topic: Oregon Polling Insights: Clinton +14  (Read 1058 times)
dspNY
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« on: July 07, 2016, 09:22:46 am »

Clinton 46
Trump 32
Undecided 22

This is actually a state where Johnson and Stein combined can cleave off about 10%

https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OR-Weighted-Tabs-Public-1.pdf
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2016, 09:24:45 am »

Looks about right.

My guess for OR is Clinton 55-43%.
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United Arab Emirates Immigrant, naturalized US citizen, resident of wonderful California, devoted liberal Democrat. Any questions?

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mollybecky
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2016, 09:35:36 am »

Depending on how the Stein campaign takes off, the 14 point margin may be a little generous.  But 32 percent (even in a state like Oregon) shows how weak Trump is in the west.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2016, 09:39:03 am »

Depending on how the Stein campaign takes off, the 14 point margin may be a little generous.  But 32 percent (even in a state like Oregon) shows how weak Trump is in the west.

Not just the west. Hes also weak in TX and FL.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2016, 10:08:05 am »

Looks about right.

My guess for OR is Clinton 55-43%.

Clinton 53
Johnson 9
Stein 3
Trump 35
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2016, 10:25:22 am »

Now we wait for StatesPoll to do some unskewing for the new swing state of 2916.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2016, 10:35:13 am »

Looks about right. Oregon's not even going to be close.
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Dumbo
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« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2016, 11:19:17 am »

Even Dukakis won this state. Why wasn't Al Gore a good fit
for Oregon?
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2016, 12:04:08 pm »

Looks about right.

My guess for OR is Clinton 55-43%.

Clinton 53
Johnson 9
Stein 3
Trump 35

Hillary 50
The Donald 38
Johnson 6
Stein 4

would be my call
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Beto/Lieu 2020
semocrat08
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« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2016, 02:53:14 pm »

Even Dukakis won this state. Why wasn't Al Gore a good fit
for Oregon?

He was, it's just that Ralph Nader took a good share of the vote (~5 percent) that would have went to Gore had he not been on the ticket. Had Nader not been on the ticket, it would have been like 51-47 Gore, similar to the 2004 John Kerry/George W. Bush results.

It's encouraging to see that the good granola and Birkenstock voters of Oregon are not going to be dabbling in Trumpism.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2016, 04:04:36 pm »

but muh clout
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2016, 04:30:17 pm »

New Poll: Oregon President by Other Source on 2016-06-27

Summary: D: 46%, R: 32%, U: 22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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