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  Pew: Clinton +9
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Author Topic: Pew: Clinton +9  (Read 3296 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: July 07, 2016, 01:15:56 pm »

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2016-campaign-strong-interest-widespread-dissatisfaction/
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/751116317911027713





Trump leads among white, non-Hispanic voters (51%-42%), while Clinton has an overwhelming advantage among African Americans (91%-7%). Clinton also holds a wide, 66%-24% advantage among Hispanic voters.

A majority of registered voters (56%) say the phrase “personally qualified to be president” better describes Clinton than Trump; just 30% say the phrase better describes Trump. Far more voters also say the phrase “would use good judgment in a crisis” better describes Clinton (53%) than Trump (36%).
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2016, 01:16:24 pm »

Lots of great info...

Clinton 51
Trump 42

Clinton 45
Trump 36
Johnson 11
Other 8

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2016-campaign-strong-interest-widespread-dissatisfaction/
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2016, 01:16:54 pm »

LOL I just posted this too...I'm always late :-)
Great news for Hillary
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2016, 01:18:27 pm »

Beautiful poll!
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2016, 01:18:43 pm »

Considering Hillary's abysmal position with white men, if she's at 42% with whites she could very well be winning with white women (probably with a plurality though).
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2016, 01:19:51 pm »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/751116747898585088

Nate noticed that in 2008 and 2012, Pew's June numbers were predictive of the final margin.

2008 June Pew: Obama 48 McCain 40 (final margin 7.2)

2012 June Pew: Obama 50 Romney 46 (final margin 3.9)
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2016, 01:21:03 pm »

Considering Hillary's abysmal position with white men, if she's at 42% with whites she could very well be winning with white women (probably with a plurality though).

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2-voter-general-election-preferences/
It says R+22 white men, D+8 white women. She gets 30% WM to his 52%, and she gets 44% WW to his 36%.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2016, 01:21:24 pm »

Winning college educated whites by 12 points! Here comes the landslide!
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2016, 01:23:17 pm »

Winning college educated whites by 12 points! Here comes the landslide!

Well never mind them, the topline numbers suggest that.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2016, 01:23:32 pm »

Great resource to compare all Demos between 08, 12, 16:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/vote-preference-over-time/
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2016, 01:24:00 pm »

This is real significant because Pew is as accurate as it gets
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2016, 01:24:08 pm »

Looks a bit friendly for Clinton, but it doesn't seem like Trump is getting a bounce from those damn emails.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2016, 01:25:27 pm »

The only close polls this cycle have been the autodial robopolls (PPP, Rasmussen).
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amdcpus
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« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2016, 01:26:45 pm »

Why was this poll released so late? It says it taken June 15-26.
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Ljube
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« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2016, 01:27:48 pm »

Why was this poll released so late? It says it taken June 15-26.

This makes the poll outdated and irrelevant.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2016, 01:30:17 pm »

Why was this poll released so late? It says it taken June 15-26.

This makes the poll outdated and irrelevant.


Yeah, doesn't factor in the boost that Hillary's gonna get from being cleared.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2016, 01:31:59 pm »

They have 9 pages of analysis, and as the new york times has noted, their June polls have been very predictive of the last 2 elections.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2016, 01:40:19 pm »

But! but! but!! I was told that brexit and emails would boost Trump!!!!!
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #18 on: July 07, 2016, 01:44:21 pm »

Interesting, if you go to table on page 3, Clinton has consolidated Dem party much more than Obama did at this point in 08.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2016, 01:47:13 pm »

Interesting, if you go to table on page 3, Clinton has consolidated Dem party much more than Obama did at this point in 08.

Consistent with findings 2 weeks ago by the ABC/Washington Post poll.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239661.msg5134393
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/26/donald-trumps-bad-month-just-got-worse-because-bernie-backers-just-rallied-to-clinton/

Trump support among Bernie supporters
May: 20%
June: 8%

McCain support among Clinton supporters
June: 20%
July: 22%
August: 18%
September: 19%
October: 14%
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #20 on: July 07, 2016, 01:52:49 pm »

Why do noncollege whites support Trump at all?Huh? Noncollege grads don't have any money.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2016, 01:55:29 pm »

They have plenty of welfare money, and Trump's more liberal than the GOP on social security, more protectionist on trade, more racist.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: July 07, 2016, 01:55:56 pm »

Oh no, a dated poll from Pew when Hillary! was at her peak. The race is over... /sarcasm
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2016, 01:58:17 pm »

Good to see Ljube and Seriously aren't phased by a Hillary +9 poll.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2016, 01:59:26 pm »

Oh no, a dated poll from Pew when Hillary! was at her peak. The race is over... /sarcasm

Heh... Yep, just like those dated Pew polls from 08, 12 that called Obama's margins almost perfectly as well.
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